【作者】 吴新春；

【导师】 陈定方；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 物流管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 铁矿石资源在国民经济中的战略重要性,不仅仅是决定于铁矿石开发利用所创造的经济价值与社会价值,更重要的是决定于铁矿石资源的安全保障与供应能否满足钢铁产业和钢铁下游用钢产业的需要,以及对钢铁和钢铁下游产业的安全保障性、经济性和可持续性。论文研究从铁矿石资源的特性和战略重要性入手,提出了中国铁矿石资源供应安全的理论框架和主要内涵,并从铁矿石资源供应与钢铁产业需求之间的平衡状态变化和经济性两方面进行了经济学解释,揭示了中国铁矿石资源供应安全的PSR机理,为建立中国铁矿石资源安全评价体系、系统评价安全状况以及制定相应的战略和措施奠定了理论基础。本论文系统地分析了国内外铁矿石资源分布和开发状况,以及相关的开发政策和发展趋势,采用Verhulst模型对未来五年中国的钢铁产量以及对铁矿石和废钢等二次资源的需求进行了预测；在此基础上,提出了影响中国铁矿石资源供应安全的国内铁矿石资源、海外铁矿石资源、海外投资权益铁矿石、铁矿石替代资源和国家铁矿石战略储备等五个方面三个层次33个影响因素的资源供应安全结构、安全评价体系模型和评价方法,并根据笔者构建的评价数学模型,对2005-2009年中国铁矿石资源供应安全状况进行了实证性的评价分析,应证了五年期间我国铁矿石资源供应不安全程度不断加剧,不安全程度上升了26.3%；在影响粗钢成本上升的铁矿石资源结构因素中,国际铁矿石价格上涨是其中最主要的影响因素；在铁矿石资源供应的五个方面中,影响最大的是进口贸易铁矿石的数量和价格因素；中国粗钢消耗的铁矿石资源成本比值ε的平均值为40%,结合钢铁产业实际经营情况,可以确定ε值的安全区间为：ε≤40%为安全状态,ε>40%为不安全状态。在此基础上,本研究系统地提出了保障中国铁矿石资源供应安全的六大战略,即：国内铁矿石资源开发战略、海外铁矿石资源开发战略、铁矿石替代资源开发战略、国家铁矿石资源储备战略和铁矿石物流发展战略,以及相应的战略目标和战略措施。本研究对当前和未来中国铁矿石资源供应的基本态势进行了判断,提出了保障中国铁矿石资源供应安全的国内铁矿石资源开发、国外铁矿石资源开发、应对国际铁矿石资源垄断化、金融化趋势、二次铁资源开发与利用、国际铁矿石资源储备、铁矿石资源高效利用与节能环保技术、建立完善铁矿石技术标准等八个方面的政策建议。部分建议随着本研究的进行正在被国家有关部委所采纳,进一步体现出此项研究的理论和实践价值。作为专项矿产资源的供应安全研究的本课题对于研究我国其它矿产资源供应安全的理论问题,制定相关的战略和政策措施也具有较强借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The strategic importance of iron ore resources in national economy not only depends on the social value and economic value created by the iron ore exploitation, but also depends on whether the requirement of the security and supply of iron ore resources could meet the requirements of the steel industry and steel downstream industry, and safety ensuring, economy and sustainability of steel and steel downstream industry.This dissertation presents theoretical frame and main connotation of China’s iron ore resources supply based on the features and strategic importance of iron ore resources, and makes an economy explanation of equilibrium state changes and economy f between iron ore resources supply and steel industry requirement. It reveals the PSR mechanism of China’s iron ore resources supply security, builds up a safety evaluation system and system evaluation safety condition for China’s iron ore resources, and establishes corresponding strategy and measures which lays the rationale.In the research of this dissertation it systematically analyzes the distribution of the domestic and foreign iron ore resources, the development situation and the related development policies and development trend and predicts the China’s steel output and the second resource demand of the iron ore and scrap steel in the next five years adopted the Verhulst model:on this basis, it put forward the resource supply security structure, the safety evaluation model and the evaluation method including five aspects, three levels,33influencing factors, such as domestic iron ore resources, foreign iron ore resources, foreign investment interests about iron ore and alternative resources of iron ore and national iron ore strategic reserves which affect China’s iron ore resources supply security; using the evaluation mathematic model constructed by the author, it makes an empirical evaluation analysis for the situation of China’s iron ore resources supply security from2005to2009and was verified that the unsafe levels of iron ore resources supply of our country was increasing and rose26.3%in five-year period. In the iron ore resource structure’s factor of effected the crude steel cost raised, the price raised of the international iron ore is the main affected factor. In five aspects of the iron ore resources supply, the factors of the number and price of imported trade iron ore have great influence. The cost ratio’s average of the iron ore resource of China’s crude steel consumption is40percent; combined with the actual operation situation of steel industries, it can be ensured that the safe interval isε≤40%and the unsafe interval isε>40%.On this basis, the research system presents six strategies to guarantee China’s iron ore resources supply security, such as domestic iron ore resources development strategy, overseas iron ore resources development strategy, iron ore alternative resources development strategy, national iron ore resources reserve strategy, iron ore logistics development strategy and corresponding strategic goals and strategic actionsIt conducts a judgment on the basic current and future situation of China’s iron ore resources supply in this study, and puts forward the policy recommendations in eight aspects such as development of domestic iron ore resource under the safeguard of China’s iron ore resources supply security, development of foreign iron ore resources, the treat with monopoly in international iron ore resource, financial trends, development and utilization with the second iron resources, storage of international iron ore resources, technology in efficient utilization energy-saving and environmental protection, the establishing and perfecting in technical standards of iron ore etc., some suggests are being adopted by the national ministries and commissions related with the progression of this study, and shows further the theoretical and practical value of the study.As a special subject in mineral resources supply security, it also has strong reference value to the research of the theory problems in other mineral resources supply security, and the establishment of the relevant strategic and policy measures.更多还原