【作者】 袁宗祥；

【导师】 严新平；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 三峡水利枢纽建成蓄水后,河面变宽,水流减缓,通航条件有了较大改善,航运持续快速增长。同时,也出现了阵发性雾情加重、江面风浪增大、通航支流河口航线交汇点增加等不利航行安全的因素。与其他水上突发事件相比,水上交通事故具有救助困难、社会影响大的特点。水上交通事故一旦发生,水上搜救就成为挽救生命、降低损失最重要、最直接、最基本的保障措施,而库区事故后应急救助因其条件特殊显得极为困难,这对三峡库区水上交通监管与险情应急处置提出了更高的要求。因此,开展三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急方法研究,在探索研究对策的基础上分析其实际工程应用,为进一步规划和建设三峡库区现代化水上安全监管与应急反应体系提供理论依据和技术参考,以不断提高这一敏感水域安全监管能力和公共服务水平都具有重要意义。首先,针对三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急的风险,对航运的安全管理与救助形势进行了分析,得出当前事故形势变化和监管的不足。选取了三峡水库回水变动区的朝天门航段约7km的范围,利用计算机建模,进行不同水位期航道变化情况的计算机仿真模拟,分析水位变化对船舶航行的影响,从而提出了三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急风险因素识别的方法,认为安全形势、气象灾害、枯水、洪水、地质灾害和通航秩序是水上交通安全最主要的6个影响因素。在此基础上,利用环境、设备、人员和组织管理等四个因素,建立了一个三级的三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急风险评估体系,从而构建了三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急风险评估模型。其次,针对三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急的模式,提出了三峡库区水上安全管理新模式,即以风险管理为理论基础,以风险(risk)、规范(rule)、资源(resource)和反应(response)为主要内容的“4R”模式。在运用复杂性科学理论阐述三峡库区水上交通系统的复杂性后,系统阐述了水上安全监管“4R”模式的内涵、模型、构建方法和工作流程。再次,对三峡库区水上交通安全应急决策支持技术与应急救助方案辅助决策系统进行研究,从水上交通安全应急预案的标准化、存储方法的数字化等角度研究了数字化应急预案的建设方法,在分析水上交通安全应急程序后,构建了包括自动制定救助决策、恶劣气象下施救方法、和船舶自救方法三个方面的水上交通安全应急决策模型,建立了数字化的水上交通安全监管与应急方法。然后,针对应急救助方案的辅助决策系统,对应急救助方案辅助决策系统的关键软件和技术进行了分析,包括地理信息系统、电子海图显示平台、非结构化数据处理技术、方法库智能搜索与匹配技术等,在此基础上,从功能性需求和非功能性需求两方面入手,进行应急救助方案辅助决策系统需求分析,并对该辅助决策系统进行设计,确定总体架构由基础数据采集与处理/事故信息采集、数据库平台、应急救助方案辅助决策系统组成,然后对各个模块、数据结构与数据库进行了设计。最后根据系统概要设计、数据结构设计、系统详细设计的结果,对系统功能进行开发和实现。最后,针对三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急资源配置方法,在对三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急资源的现状进行分析后,对现在资源配置的效能进行了评价分析,针对资源配置存在的问题,并结合前述内容进行了需求分析,在此基础上着重探讨了了三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急资源的站点优化问题,最后从人力资源、物力资源、信息资源三个方面制定了三峡库区水上交通安全监管与应急资源的配置方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 When the Three Gorges began to impound, the river was wider and the flow was slower, for the improving of the environment of ship, the shipping had getting a rapid growth. At the same time, some new factors which were harmful for the navigation were appeared, too, like on the river, the day of fog got more, the wind and wave got stronger, and the point of ship’s route in the branch got more. The traffic of accident on the water was more severe social influence and higher difficulty of rescue than other emergency incident. Once the accident has happened, search and rescue were the most important, immediate and fundamental supporting measure for saving the lives and reduce the loss, but in the reservoir area, search and rescue were so difficult that the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident in the reservoir area were required more complete, it is significant for the research of the method of safety management and emergency.Firstly, in the reservoir area, aimed at the risk of the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident, the safety of management and the situation of rescue were analyzed for the defects now. For analysis different water level’s impact for the ship, about7km in the Chaotianmen segment of the backwater change area was selected for the simulation of waterway’s change in different water level using the computer. With the method of distinguish the factor of the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident in the reservoir area, it was considered that safety situation, meteorological disaster, low water, flood, geological disaster and ship’s order were the most6important factors for the traffic safety on the water. On the base of this method, a three-stage system was built for the risk assessment of the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident in the reservoir area by using four elements: the environment, the equipment, the crew and the organizational management, thereby, the model of the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident in the reservoir area was built.Secondly, aimed at the mode of the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident in the reservoir area, a new mode "4R"(risk, rule, resource, and response) on the basis of risk management was putted forward. After expounding the complexity of the transportation system on the water in the reservoir area, the connotation, the model, the building method and the work process were produced systematically.Thirdly, the decision support of the emergency in the Three Gorges reservoir area was researched. The constructing of digitized emergency plan of the safety on the water was research by the standardization of the plan and the digitizing of the storage. After analyzing the process of emergency, the decision model including the automation of making the rescue decision, the method of rescue in the heavy weather and rescue oneself. And the digitized method, which was about the traffic of supervise and the emergency of accident, was built. Then, aimed at the system of decision support of emergency, the key software and technology was analyzed, consisting of the Geographic Information System, the Electronic Chart Display Platform, the unstructured data processing technique, the intelligent searching and matching method technique. On the basis of above, the demand obtaining functionality and un-functionality of the system was analyzed and designed, the framework was insisted of base data acquisition, accident and disposing data acquisition, the platform of database, the decision support of emergency, the modules, data structure and database were designed. Finally, using the preliminary design of system, structure design of data and the detailed design of system, this system has been developed and implemented.Lastly, about the method of allocation of the management and emergency resource, the current situation of resource was analyzed in the Three Gorges reservoir area, and the efficiency of the resource was evaluated, to solve the problem, the demand of resource was get, and the resource station was optimized. Finally, the scheme of resource allocation of management and emergency was made from human resource, material resource and information resource in the Three Gorges reservoir area.更多还原