【作者】 徐亚；

【导师】 张庆年；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国高速铁路的快速发展,旅客交通运输格局发生了很大变化,其他交通方式或多或少的受到了高铁带来的冲击。道路旅客运输作为旅客运输的重要形式,由于其灵活便捷性在旅客运输中发挥着重要作用。然而,在高铁等其他交通方式的竞争下,我国现有道路旅客运输组织规划上的不合理现象突显,直接制约着道路旅客运输的发展,为此合理组织规划道路旅客运输,以降低成本提高服务水平获得竞争优势,是当前高铁经济下研究道路旅客运输亟待解决的问题。论文从旅客出行行为分析入手,研究了道路客运班线优化的问题。结合心理学及效用理论分析旅客出行行为,精炼并分析了直达及换乘模式下旅客出行行为的影响因素,引入结构方程模型建立相应的分担率预测模型。在此基础上预测道路旅客交通需求,建立道路班线设置优化模型及发车时刻表优化模型,为道路旅客运输企业合理规划组织运输提供参考。论文具体研究内容安排如下：论文第二章研究了旅客出行行为及直达与换乘模式下旅客出行选择行为的影响因素。首先研究出行行为选择理论基础；分析道路客运发展现状及发展趋势；结合实际及意向调查法设计问卷,进行旅客出行特征调查研究；对调查结果进行分析；最后归纳分析直达及换乘模式下旅客出行方式选择的影响因素。论文第三章研究了直达与换乘模式下交通方式分担率预测的问题。在分析交通方式划分模型研究现状的基础上,选用非集计logit模型作为方式划分基本模型；针对logit模型的不足,引入结构方程模型分析旅客出行行为影响因素间的关系；在结构方程模型基础上构建新的效用函数；以问卷调查整理数据为基础,分别构建直达及换乘模式下旅客交通运输分担率预测模型,并计算得到道路旅客交通运输分担率。论文第四章研究了道路运输班线设置调整优化问题。首先概述了道路运输班线设置问题；对道路运输客流特征进行了定性分析；依据先预测总体需求然后分担到各种交通方式的预测思路,采用基于径向基神经网络的组合预测方法预测总的旅客运输需求,然后根据道路旅客运输分担率得到道路的客运需求量,同时对需求结构进行预测；在此基础上,建立道路运输班线调整优化模型,并给出求解方法。论文第五章研究了道路旅客运输发车时刻表调整优化问题。首先分析了客运站发车时刻表制定原则；建立了基于基本假设的发车时刻表编制优化模型；结合实际旅客到站情况及发车时刻表编制过程,提出了便于实际操作的可行的发车时刻表编制方法；最后通过调研得到的数据,进行案例分析,证明了模型的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the speed up of China’s high-speed rail construction, passenger transport pattern changes a lot, which contribute influences to other modes of transportation. As an important form of passenger transport, road transport plays an important role in the transportation of passengers due to its flexibility and convenience. However, with competition between high-speed rail and other modes of transportation, the unreasonable phenomenon on organizing and planning of road passenger transport is highlighted, which directly restricts the development of road passenger transport. Therefore, in order to reduce cost and improve service levels to gain a competitive advantage, rational organizing and planning of road passenger transport are urgently to be solved in study of road passenger transport.Based on the analysis of passenger travel behavior, the paper studies the problem of road passenger transport line optimization. Analysis of passenger travel behavior by the use of psychology and utility theory, this paper refining and analysis of factors affecting passenger travel behavior, introduces the SEM to establish the sharing-rate prediction model. Then, on the basis of the prediction of road passenger transport demand, the paper established a road class line optimization model and departure schedule optimization model to provide a reference for the rational planning and organizing of transportation of the road passenger transport enterprises. Specific content is organized as follows:The second chapter studies the factors affecting passenger travel behavior and passenger travel choice behavior in direct and transfer mode. Firstly, this chapter studies travel behavior choice theory base and analyzes the development situation and trend of road passenger transport; Secondly, designing the questionnaire based on SP and RP survey to investigate and analyze the survey results; Finally, summarized and analyzed the factors affecting passenger travel mode choice behavior in direct and transfer mode.The third chapter studies the problem of transportation sharing-rate prediction model in direct and transfer traffic mode. Firstly, on the basis of analysis of the status quo of the transportation sharing-rate prediction model, paper selected disaggregate logit model as the basic model; Due to the deficiencies of the logit model, SEM model is introduced to analyze the relationship among each factor that influences passenger travel behavior. Secondly, a new utility function is builded based on SEM model; Finally, based on questionnaire data processing, paper established the sharing-rate prediction model for direct and transfer mode of passenger transport, and calculate the road passenger transport sharing-rate.The fourth chapter studies the problem of road class line optimization. Firstly, this chapter outlines the problem of road transport class line setting and qualitative analysis of road transport passenger flow characteristics; Secondly, according to the forecasts idea of to predict overall demand and then share to the various modes of transportation by the sharing-rate, paper predict the total demand for passenger transport by combination forecasting method based on RBF neural network and then predict the road passenger transport demand and demand structure; Finally, paper established the road transport class line adjustment and optimization model, and gives the solution method.The fifth chapter studies the problem of adjustment and optimization of road passenger transport departure schedules. Firstly, this chapter analyzes the principle of the passenger terminal preparation departure schedules; Secondly, paper established the departure schedules basic optimization model based on the basic assumption; According to the passenger arrival and the preparation process of the departure schedules, paper presents a departure schedules preparation methods which facilitate the actual operation. Finally, based on survey data, case studies, to prove the feasibility of the model.更多还原