【作者】 马强文；

【导师】 任保平；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 西方经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 中国经济在快速增长的同时,伴随着内需不足,粗放型的发展方式,不利于经济增长的可持续性。特别是经济发展中较高的流通成本制约了经济增长效率的提高。对于这些问题,现有文献主要从生产的角度去研究如何扩大内需,转变经济发展方式,如何促进经济增长。包括提高人力资本、技术进步等。但是这些对策建议忽视了一个隐含的前提,即生产与消费的无成本对接。实际上,如果流通成本较高,生产规模的扩大只会导致产品存量的不断增加,但是很难转化成满足消费者需要的有用商品。而这也正是一直以来我国经济发展方式难以根本转变的主要原因。流通作为生产与消费的中间环节,由于过去仅仅局限于流通与生产关系的讨论,并未把流通作为产业放置于国民经济的产业部门来研究,因而无法全面分析流通影响经济增长的作用机理。因此,本文以流通业的经济增长效应为主线,沿着流通业自身发展水平的评价、区域差异及影响因素分析,再到流通业影响经济增长的理论与实证分析思路,首先对中国流通业的增长能力进行综合评价,实证分析发现增长规模与水平、潜力与环境比重最大,基本上保持上升趋势,是提高流通业增长能力的主要动力。现代化程度、增长质量比重次之,但波动幅度较大,总体呈现上升趋势,说明中国流通业增长能力较弱,主要是依靠数量扩张,而不是依靠质量提高来体现其增长能力。影响力指标对流通业增长能力的贡献是负向的,变动幅度最明显,总体呈现下降趋势,阻碍了增长能力的提高。在此基础上,本文根据分工与市场范围的相互作用机制,从分工视角分析影响流通业发展的区域差异。我们认为,东部地区流通业发展主要依赖区域内部分工,西部地区则对区域之间分工依赖比较明显,这也说明西部地区在国内区际分工中处于比较劣势地位。东部地区流通业对国际分工的依赖程度最大、中西部次之。对流通业发展的区域差异影响因素分析表明中西部地区流通业发展落后的原因在于一方面城市化水平与对外开放水平较低,另一方面存在严重的地方分割不利于中西部地区比较优势的发挥,从而阻碍了这些地区流通业的发展。在对流通业增长能力的综合评价与地区差异进行分析的基础上,本文接着从流通效率的视角,通过对新型古典经济学中的职业中间商模型进行拓展,分析流通业的发展对经济增长的影响。我们根据流通中介在生产与消费之间的衔接作用,提出流通业发展促进经济增长的三个途径：第一,流通业作为国民经济的组成部分,不仅能够促进产出增加,而且本身就能带动经济增长；第二,流通业的效率实现功能,即流通业发挥流通中介的作用,通过规模经济与范围经济节省生产者与消费者的交易成本,一方面使得消费者收入增加,另一方面通过降低商品价格所带来的收入效应共同促进居民消费增长,从而达到扩大内需的重要目标；第三,流通业在促进经济增长的过程中,与生产者共同承担商品产销矛盾,从而有利于企业发挥专业化分工的优势,采用新技术扩大生产规模,并提高生产效率,从而推动经济发展方式转变。从流通业促进产出增加来看,整体上商业对经济增长的正向影响非常显著,而物流业对经济增长的正向影响不显著,这说明物流业发展水平有限,其对经济增长的促进作用尚未完全体现出来。从区域差异来看,东部地区商业对经济增长的正向影响最大,中西部地区次之。物流业则在三大地区都没有发挥促进经济增长的作用。物流与生产之间的关系并不协调,物流业发展水平较低阻碍了规模经济的产生,从而使得经济增长中的交易成本居高不下。从流通业对消费的影响来看,商业与物流业均能对居民消费产生正向作用。从地区层面来看,东部地区商业的促进作用更加明显,中西部地区商业对居民消费的正向影响较弱。物流业对居民消费的推动力最显著的也是中东部,西部地区仍较弱。从流通业对经济发展方式转变的影响来看,具体而言,商业增长对生产率的正向影响高于物流业增长的正向影响。从地区差异来看,可以看出,东部地区流通业发展水平远远超过中、西部地区。具体而言,东西部地区流通业对生产率变动都是正向影响,但是前者大于后者。中部地区商业发展水平比较滞后,其对生产率变动的作用为负,但不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese economy is in rapid growth at the same time, along with the shortage of domestic demand, extensive model develop way, led to China’s economic dependence on foreign high. Especially in the economic development in higher logistics cost restricted economic growth efficiency. For these problems, the existing literature is mainly from the production point of view to study how to expand domestic demand, change the mode of economic development, how to promote economic growth. Include to improve human capital, technical progress. But these suggestions and ignore an implicit assumption that the production and consumption of docking without cost, if the current cost is higher, the expansion of the scale of production will only lead to product inventory increases ceaselessly, but very difficult to translate into useful products to satisfy the needs of the consumers. This is since China s economic development mode is difficult to fundamentally change the main reason.The circulation as the intermediate link of production and consumption, because the past is only confined to the circulation and production relationship, not the circulation industry as placed on the national economy industry to study, and thus cannot be comprehensive analysis of circulation affects economic growth mechanism. This shows the development of the circulation industry level, directly affect the overall economic efficiency. This paper on China’s circulation industry growth capacity comprehensive evaluation, found that growth in scale and the level of potential and environment, the largest proportion, basically maintained an upward trend, is to improve the circulation industry growth capacity of main power. The degree of modernization, growth quality proportion of times, but larger fluctuations, the overall upward trend, that China’s circulation industry growth ability is weaker, is mainly depend on the quantity expansion, instead of relying on quality to reflect its growth ability. Influence of the target of current job growth capacity contribution is negative, fluctuant range is most obvious, overall declining trend, blocked the growth ability.On this basis, this article from the perspective of division of labor of regional differences in the development of circulation industry. We think, area of the eastpart part of circulation industry development mainly depends on the area within the division, western area of area division of labor among the dependence is more obvious, the western regions in the domestic interregional division of labor in a comparative disadvantage. The eastern region circulation industry on the international division of labor depends on the extent of the largest.Through the convective circulation growth ability evaluation and regional difference analysis, then from the perspective of circulation circulation efficiency influence on economic growth. According to our current intermediary between production and consumption the cohesive function, put forward the development of circulation industry to promote economic growth in three ways:first, the circulation industry as part of the national economy, not only can promote the output increase, but also can promote economic growth; second, circulation efficiency function, namely the circulation circulation intermediaries play the effect of scale economy and scope economy, through saving the producers and consurhers of the transaction cost, on one hand makes the consumers’income increase, on the other hand, through the lower commodity prices brought about by the income effect to jointly promote the growth of the residents’consumption, so as to expand inside needed important target; third, the circulation industry in the promotion of economic growth in the process, and producer common commitment commodity contradiction of produce and sale, which are helpful for enterprises to play the advantage of specialized division of labor, use new technology to expand the scale of production, and the production efficiency is improved, so as to promote the transformation of economic development mode.This article from the circulation effect of economic growth in three aspects, through theoretical and empirical analysis of circulation industry in economic growth provides circulation efficiency, reduce transaction costs, improve the effectiveness of commodity. We found the circulation industry on economic growth effect of embodied in its own economic growth function, and through the efficiency function of expanding domestic demand, provide the enterprise productivity, promote the transformation of economic development mode.From the regional perspective, the circulation industry promotion role on economic growth has obvious regional difference. Whether in business or the development of the logistics industry, the economic growth positive effect on performance for the largest in eastern and western, illustrated, this fully illustrated center-west region circulation industry development deficiencies.更多还原