【作者】 李建平；

【导师】 上官周平；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 作物栽培学与耕作学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 耕地是人类宝贵的自然资源，是粮食生产的基础，对粮食安全、经济发展和社会稳定至关重要。近些年来各级政府为了发展农村经济和改善生态环境，实施了农业产业结构调整和退耕还林(还草)工程，导致大量耕地被转型；同时随着西部大开发进程的加快，能源基地建设和道路建设永久性的占用耕地日益严重，导致耕地面积大幅缩减，粮食总产抬升艰难；而人口数量指数增加，粮食需求迅速增长，粮食供给与需求矛盾日益突出，区域粮食安全受到严重威胁。针对这一问题，本文从时间（1978-2008）和空间尺度（陕西省各县域为研究单元），对陕西省农业生产潜力和粮食安全状态进行了区域宏观层面和农户微观层面的深入研究。宏观层面研究基于陕西省农业生产的历史和现状，详细分析耕地生产潜力及其影响因素，运用定性和定量相结合的方法对陕西省粮食需求量、未来耕地保有量和食物生产能力进行预测，提出粮食安全预警模型评估陕西省粮食安全态势；微观层面采用农户调研方法进行实证研究，从农户微观层面分析农户粮食安全状态及其影响因素，获得如下主要研究结果：（1）明确了陕西省过去30年耕地变化动态及其主要驱动力，以及人地矛盾中耕地压力程度和利用程度，认为陕西省耕地变化三大驱动因素为生态建设退耕、农业结构调整、能源基地与道路建设，其中生态退耕是耕地减少的主要驱动因素，其次是农业结构调整占用耕地，农业结构调整以果业基地建设为主要形式。（2）明确了陕西省粮食总产及其构成、单产与人口的变化规律及其主导因素，分析了1978-2010年陕西省粮食供需平衡的变化规律，总体表现为需求大于供给，粮食产量虽然逐年增加，但所增加粮食被新增人口消费所抵消，使陕西省粮食自给率维持在85%左右；陕西省粮食产量的空间分布规律表现出关中地区＞陕南地区＞陕北地区；关中地区是陕西省粮食供应区，陕北为粮食消费区，陕南为粮食供需平衡区。（3）核算了陕西省耕地、主要作物和主要生态类型区的生产潜力及其空间分布规律，认为陕西省耕地生产潜力具有明显的地域差异，耕地光合生产潜力最大区域分布在渭北旱塬东南部和关中平原北部；光温生产潜力最高地区分布在渭北旱塬及关中平原东部地区；气候生产潜力最高区域主要集中在渭南地区、安康地区、汉中盆地和关中平原的西部等；土壤生产潜力空间分布图与气候生产潜力差异较大，土壤生产潜力中部最高，陕北和陕南地区相对较低，总体上呈现为关中＞陕南＞陕北趋势。关中地区的关中盆地东部，渭北高原，即土壤生产潜力较高，平均为35.47t/hm~2，是陕西省自然条件下土地生产潜力较高的区域。（4）陕西省粮食可实现增产潜力分布从北到南依次为低—高—低—高—低的总体分布规律，可实现增产潜力最大区域分布于陕北中部和关中西部，而陕南大部分地区可实现增产潜力最小，陕北北部和关中北部可实现生产潜力居中。按照每个地区粮食单产均达到该地区目前粮食单产最高记录水平，那么陕西省未来粮食可实现增产潜力为1124.2×10~4t，和目前陕西省粮食总产量相当。（5）评价了陕西省与不同类型区的粮食安全现状，陕西省粮食自给率在80%左右，口粮自给率不足50%，粮食处于不安全状态。农户食物安全主要受制于食物购买能力，而不是粮食产量，因而提高农户收入水平以提高农户食物获取能力，是解决农户食物安全的根本途径。（6）提出了陕西省未来确保粮食安全的发展策略，宏观区域方面应该严格保护现有耕地数量和提高耕地质量并举、多途径做好粮食储备、粮食流通及进出口工作、严格控制人口增长、大力发展农田水利设施、保护生态环境保障农业可持续发展、加强粮食政策的体统协调和综合分析，来确保区域粮食—经济—社会可持续发展。微观农户层面应该因地制宜突出特色发展农户经济来提高农民收入，提高农户在食物获取竞争中的能力，来保障农户粮食安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cultivated land is the valuable natural resources and the base of food production, it isvery important to food safety, economic development and society stability，recently, somemeasures were taken by governments to develop rural economic and improve ecologicalenvironment, which contains agricultural industrial structure adjustment(AISA), grain forgreen project(GGP) and west development project. Those measures as well as the permanentoccupation of cultivated land because of energy base and road building lead to reduction ofcultivated land and foods production dramatically; meanwhile, the total food demand hasbeen increasing with the increasing populations. So the contradictions between food supplyand demand become increasingly prominent, and regional food security is seriouslythreatened.This paper, looks from the angle of time and space, focuses on the capacity of agricultureproduction and the struts of food security in regional macro level and household micro levelrespectively in Shaanxi. As regional macro aspect, the paper presents the situation ofagriculture producing from1978to present, and than analyzed the capacity of cultivated landand its influence factors, using qualitative and quantitative methods estimated the graindemand, amount of cultivated land reserved and grain production capacity of Shaanxi，meanwhile, raising the food security warming model to assess the status of food security; Ashousehold micro aspect, we used empirical study based on household face to face interviewand questionnaires interview to analyze household food security and its influence factors.The results showed that (1) the driving factors of changing cultivated land are GGP,AISA and Energy Base and Road Building. Among the three factors, GGP is main factor toreduce amount of cultivated land, follow with the AISA, which occupied the cultivated landby orchard growing.The food demand more than food supply form1978to2010in Shaanxi province,although the food production has been increasing year by year, the increased food productionwas offset by food consumptions of additional population, so the food self-sufficient rate isabout85%during this time; the special distribution of food production demonstratedGuanzhong where is food supply area Shannan where is balance area of food supply and consumption Shanbei where is food consumption area.There are obvious regional-differences of cultivated land potential productivity amongcountries, the highest areas of photosynthetic productivity located in north Guanzhong plainand south Weibei arid plain; the highest value of photosynthesis-temperature potentialproductivity located in east of Guanzhong plain and Weibei arid plain; the highest value ofclimate potential productivity located in Weinan city, Ankang city, Yang county of Hangzhongbasin, Qianyang county, Linyou county and Baoji county; the soil potential productivitypresented Guanzhong Shannan Shanbei, the highest value of it located in east ofGuanzhong plain andWeihe basin, the average value reaches to35.47t/hm~2under natural conditions.Space distinction of realizable production capacity of cultivated land in Shaanxi showedthat low–high–low–high–low from north to south, the highest value of realizableproduction capacity located in mid Shanbei and west Guanzhong, follow by north of Shanbeiand Guanzhong, the lowest located in Shannan. If the grain yield per unit of each city reachesto the highest record of its counties respectively, the realizable increase grain production is1124.2×10~4t, so the total grain population will be doubled.The grain self-sufficient rate is about85%, grain ration self-sufficient rate is less than50%, so the status of food security is upset. Therefore, the status of household food securitywas largely affected by the purchasing power (net household income rather) than the grainyield, so enhancing food obtain capacity is a key measure to safeguard food security.There are two countermeasures to safeguard food security in Shaanxi, first is regionalmacro level part, which contents protecting of cultivated land as well as improving thequality of cultivated land, making grain storage and distribution and export and import well,controlling population growth, developing the farming irrigation facilities, protecting theagricultural environment, enhancing the grain policies comprehensive analysis, ensuring thesustainable development between grain yield and economic and society. As household microaspect, increasing the household net income by developing characteristic economy accordingto the conditions of each areas, and than enhancing the competitiveness of food obtain tosafeguard food security.更多还原