【作者】 刘磊；

【导师】 戴超武；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际冷战史， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 二十世纪四五十年代,核武器与冷战形势的出现和不断发展,带动了美国知识界围绕着核武器与国家战略进行了广泛的思考,在社会科学界造就了一批研究核战略的战略学者(又称民间战略家),如布罗迪、福克斯、沃尔弗斯、瓦伊纳、奥斯古德、谢林、基辛格、卡恩、沃尔斯泰特、考夫曼、希契、特纳、哈恩、卡普兰、希尔斯曼、坎内尔等。这些学者通过出版著作、发表文章、撰写报告、发表演讲等多种方式充分表达了自己的思想,涉及内容广泛,产生了优秀而丰富的思想成果,涉及核武器的军事与政治意义与影响、核武器与威慑战略、全面战争与有限战争理论、恐怖平衡理论、核武器对一般国际关系以及西方同盟关系的影响、核武器与民防计划、核武器的控制、核裁军、核扩散等诸多问题。这些思想是与冷战时代核武器及其形势的发展、与美国国家核战略的发展相伴而行的。有些是对核武器本身影响的思考,有些是对美苏冷战特别是核军备竞赛形势的反应,有些是对美国官方核战略的批评和建议,还有对核威胁下民众安全与生活的关怀。这些思考与讨论,通常与官方的核政策产生一些互动,有些观点或许被政府和军方采纳从而对官方的政策产生影响；或许不被采纳,但也会为官方或民众看待这些问题开阔了视野、增加了角度。其中在五十年代,他们围绕着“大规模报复”战略,对热核时代的威慑战略的思考与讨论,带动了美国朝野各界对当时美国核战略的广泛探讨,为五十年代到六十年代美国核战略的转变——由“大规模报复”向“灵活反应”,由全面战争战略向以“确保摧毁”为后盾的有限战争战略的转变——发挥了巨大的推动作用。此外,核问题既是历史问题,更是现实问题。冷战早已结束,发生大规模核战争的危险基本消除了,但它遗留的核扩散的危险加大了,那就是不负责任的国家行为体和以恐怖分子为代表的非国家行为体获取核武器的努力愈加威胁着世界大多数国家和民众的安全。而中国已成为世界上拥有核邻国最多的国家,并且与这些邻国关系复杂,某些地区局势始终不稳定,这都成为中国极大的安全隐患。通过对核武器发展前期美国知识分子战略思想的研究,我们能够从中汲取一些智慧、经验和教训,为解决以上国际问题和中国自身问题提供些许的借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the1940s and1950s, with the development of nuclear weapons and cold war, American intellectuals devoted plenty of thoughts on the nuclear weapons and national strategy. Under this circumstance, lots of strategic scholars or civilian strategists became well known in the field of social science, such as Bernard Brodie, William Fox, Arnold Wolfers, Jacob Viner, Robert Osgood, Thomas Schelling, Henry Kissinger, Herman Kahn, Albert Wohlstetter, William Kaufmann, Roger Hilsman, Charles Hitch, Gordon Turner, Walter Hahn、Rogers Gannell, Morton Kaplan and so on. All these scholars expressed their thoughts by publishing books, articles, writing reports, giving lectures and making speeches, and made great achievement which involved nuclear weapons’military and political effects, strategy of nuclear deterrence, the theory of general war and limited war, balance of terror, nuclear weapons’effects to international relations and western allies, civil defense, nuclear disarmament, nuclear arms control, nuclear proliferation and so on.All the thoughts above interacted with the development of nuclear weapons and the United States’national nuclear strategy in cold war era, some of which involved with the nuclear weapons themselves’effects, some were responses to the American-Soviet nuclear contest, some were critics and suggestions to the United States’national nuclear strategy and some were concerns about civilians’safety and life under the nuclear threat. Some opinions may be accepted by the U.S. government and military service and affected the official policy, some may not be accepted, but still could open the government and public’s mind on the nuclear issues. In the1950s, the strategic scholars’thoughts and debate on the strategy of "massive retaliation" promoted American government and public’s great argumentation on "limited war", which played a very important role in the transition from the strategy of "massive retaliation" to the strategy of "flexible response", which was a limited war strategy backed up by general war ability, in the early1960s.Furthermore, the nuclear issue is not only a historical problem but also a contemporary problem. With the end of the Cold War, the danger of massive nuclear war disappeared basically, however, the danger of nuclear proliferation increased. Irresponsible state actors and non-state actors represented by international terrorists’ effort to possess nuclear weapons is making more and more threat to most nations and peoples’security in the world. And since China is surrounded by the most nuclear armed neighbors, and has complicated relations with these nuclear neighbors, some of which are in an unstable situation, China is actually suffering serious nuclear threat today. Based on American intellectuals’strategic thoughts on the nuclear issue in the early time, maybe we can learn some wisdom and knowledge to help solving the problems face by the world and China.更多还原