【作者】 张戈；

【导师】 曾鸣；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 电力是国民经济的重要基础性产业,对于维持和促进一个国家的社会经济发展和改善国民生活水平起着重要的支持与保障作用。随着经济社会环境的逐渐发展和变化,传统的电力工业垄断格局已不再适应社会经济对电力工业发展的客观要求,因此,“打破垄断、引入竞争”已经成为世界各国电力改革的普遍诉求。发电领域是最早引入竞争的环节。在电力市场环境中,发电商的投资策略和运营方式与传统管制体系下相比,在投资决策主体、发电项目选择等方面受到更多不确定性和随机性因素的影响,同时发电规划与输电规划的关系、激励方式等也都发生了巨大的变化。本文以合理配置资源,提高资源利用效率为出发点,综合考虑投资环境、投资时机、投资结构等不确定因素,主要针对不确定性条件下的发电技术、最佳投资时机和发电扩张的投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。以促进电力工业与社会、经济、环境的协调发展,提高投资效率。首先,本文对不确定性条件下的发电投资决策的理论基础进行研究。简要回顾了不确定性的基本理论,比较了不同的投资决策方法,并对市场化下的发电投资决策的不确定性进行了研究,指出市场化改革前后发电投资决策存在差别,总结了电力市场条件下发电投资决策的特点,分析了不同市场规制下发电投资决策。其次,针对不确定性条件下的发电投资的技术选择进行研究和模型的构建。主要研究内容包括三个方面：基于不可逆投资的实物期权理论建立经济模型,研究了电能价格及化石燃料价格对发电投资决策的影响,并对能源价格之间相互关系的作用进行了分析。再次,对不确定性条件下的最佳投资时机决策进行了研究与模型的构建。主要的研究思路首先是基于投资收益最大化的投资决策基本原则,在点火差价模型的基础上进行了进一步的扩展,建立一个考虑到发电产能的跳跃和尖峰的更加准确的实物期权模型；在此基础上构建了关于跳跃的电价模型和期权评估模型,分析了用于反映各种电价的特征的发电资产评估的灵敏度；然后,介绍取得一些发电资产的投资机会的评估。最后,总结了发电资产价值和发电投资时机的意义。最后,针对不确定性条件下的发电扩张投资决策进行研究与模型的构建。结合不确定性和竞争对手的未来期望投资,提出了在不确定性条件下企业用于扩张投资决策的分析框架：在投资评价前,基于全寿命周期成本构建火电设备评估关联模型,识别个别投资项目,并运用动态规划方法,确定与持续负荷曲线最近似的阶梯函数,为发电扩张投资决策提供参考依据；建立投资评价模型,并充分考虑竞争对手未来的扩张计划及负荷、燃料成本在未来期间增长的不确定性。研究运用投资评价模型进行了算例分析,比较了不同发电技术的投资价值,制定了不同负荷增长率下的系统扩建时间表,研究了不同的负荷增长率对投资项目的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Being an important basic industry of national economy, Electricity is playing a key supportive in a country’s socio-economic development and the national civil living standard. As the economic and social environment changes, the pattern of the traditional monopoly of the power industry cannot meet the latest requirement of recent development. Thus, breaking the monopoly and introducing competition has become the universal appeal of the world’s electricity reform.Power generating area is the earliest one to introduce and conduct competition model. Compared to the traditional control system in the electricity market, the investment strategy and operating model of this generation companies are different in aspacts of realation between generation, transmission planning and incentive method, etc. These are because of the effectiveness of more uncertainties and randomnesses. In order to disscuss on rational allocation and efficent usage of resources, this paper will focus on researching, modeling and senario planning in decision making strategy about the power generation technologies, investment window of opportunity and generation exanding under uncertainties including environment, opportunities and strcture of investment. These discussion are committed to promote the coordinated development of the industry related to society,economy environment and meanwhile the investment efficeicy. The discussion is mainly composed of three parts introduced below.Firstly, this paper will study the theoretical basis of the power generation investment decisions under uncertainties, compare the different investment decisions, investigate the uncertainties of power generation investment decisions. It will futher point out the difference of the power generation investment decisions between before and after the market-oriented reform, and analyze the decisions under different market regulation.Secondly, this paper will research and model the selection of the generation technologies under uncertainties. The main contents include the study on Economic models based on real option theory of irreversible investment, the research on the enfluence by the price of eletricity on fossil fuels’price and the investment decision making, and analyze on the mutual relations between different energy pieces.Thirdly, this paper will research and model the best investment opportunity decision. A more accurate real option model considering the jump and spike of generation capacity will be built based on the basic principles of maximizing the investment income and the expansion of spark spread model. Based on the power price model with jump, a options valuation model will also be proposed. Futhermore, The sensitivity of power generation assets assessment will be analyzed to reflect the features of power price. Moreover, it will introduce the evaluation of different investment opportunities, and conclude the significance of generation assets’value and investment timing.Finally, this paper will research and model for the investment decision-making of power generation expansion under uncertainties. Combining with the uncertainty and the competitors’future expectations of investment, the article introduces the analysis framework for expansion of investment decisions under uncertainty conditions—making associated model of the assessment of the thermal power equipment before the investment evaluation, identifying individual investment projects based on the full life-cycle cost, determining the most suitable and continuous load curve step function with the method of dynamic programming to provide references for the investment decision of power generation expansion and building investment evaluation model and taking full account of the competitors’future expansion program and the uncertainties of fuel costs variation in the future. Moreover, this paper will determine the investment value of the power generation technology establish the expansion schedule of the system under different load growth and research the impact of different load growth rate on investment projects by the example analysis.更多还原