【作者】 何深；

【导师】 曾鸣；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 人类活动导致全球气候变化已是一个不争的事实,气候变化引起的极端灾害天气在全世界正引起前所未有的重视和关切。应对气候变化的核心是减少温室气体排放,其中主要是能源消费的C02排放。随着城市化、工业化、市场化的高速发展,“十五”期间我国能源消费状况偏离了2020年能源战略目标,经济快速增长的同时,CO2排放也高速增加。早在2008年,中国已经成为世界温室气体排放量最大的国家之一。随着煤电装机的持续增长,2030年以后我国的碳排放量要远大于在国际上可能争取到的排放空间,降低我国电力行业的碳排放不仅可以降低我国对化石燃料的依赖度,同时还可为应对气候变化和能源安全做出贡献。随着《京都议定书》的实施,通过全球合作实现减排的国际碳排放交易市场迅速发展,成为推动低碳经济发展最为重要的机制。根据欧盟各国的实践经验,碳排放交易在促进减排目标实现过程中发挥了重要的作用。本文将碳排放交易体系建发与我国电力工业的可持续发展相结合,运用可持续发展理论观点,对电力行业碳排放交易的理论体系进行深入研究,以期为我国电力工业的低碳化发展提供决策支持。本文的主要研究内容如下：首先,阐述了碳排放交易的来源及其两种表现形式——CDM和配额交易机制的相关概念,总结了目前两种交易机制的应用情况。对CDM和配额交易机制的交易原理进行了比较研究,并分析了两种交易机制在不完全竞争市场和完全竞争市场的投资激励效果。其次,讨论了与碳排放交易密切相关的碳排放权分配机制问题,主要包括碳排放权的分配方案和分配方式。一方面研究建立了基于发电量的碳排放权分配模型和基于燃料类型的碳排放权分配模型,并对两种分配模型进行了比较,最终给出其适用范畴。另一方面,将拍卖分配方式引入碳排放权交易市场中,提出了标准增价拍卖方式的定量化模型,并模拟仿真了不同排放率下企业采取真实报价和策略竞标两种方案,以分析不同策略组合下的企业利润,从而为我国碳排放文权分配方式的设计提供参考。第三,研究了三种碳排放交易方案的建模求解,分别是基于发电资源的碳排放交易修正方案、基于用电负荷的碳排放交易修正方案以及基于第一出售者的碳排放交易方案。根据各种不同交易方案,分别建立区域内与区域外两类用电服务机构与发电商的利润最大化模型,并对该方案下的用电服务机构与发电商的在运营中的经济与环境问题进行均衡分析,从理论上对三种碳排放交易模型的特性进行揭示与分析。第四,研究了碳排放对电力系统经济的影响,提出了若干衡量碳排放的经济性指标,以探讨特定电力系统在碳排放约束的情况下,电力需求变化与系统成本效益的关系,并以煤电机组、联合循环燃气机组(CCg)和循环燃气涡轮机组(CTg)及负荷组成的三母线网络为实例,分有无输电约束限制两类情形对系统的碳排放成本效益进行分析。最后,总结了我国碳排放交易市场(CDM市场和配额交易市场)面临的主要问题。在此基础上,提出构建碳排放交易市场体系建设的设想,分别从碳排放权分配机制、定价机制和交易平台建设三个方面进行了论述,最后给出完善我国碳排放交易市场的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global climate change caused by human activities has been an indisputable fact, which is also causing unprecedented worldwide attention and concern. The core of reacting climate change is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially the CO2of energy consumption. With the rapid development of urbanization, industrialization, market-oriented, the situation of energy consumption deviated from the China Energy Consumption Energy Strategy2020target in "the tenth five period", meanwhile the economic surge growth is relyed on high input resources, high pollution and low efficiency and high CO2emissions. China has become one of the largest contries of greenhouse gas emissions in the world in2008, and meets unprecedented challenges. With the continued growth of coal-fired power generation, China’s carbon emissions may be much greater than the emission space fight in the international after2030, therefore reducing carbon emissions of China’s power industry can not only reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but also help relieve climate change and energy security. With the implementation of "Kyoto Protocol", international carbon emissions trading market aimed at achieving reduction through global cooperation has developed rapidly, and is increasingly becoming the most important mechanism to promote development of low carbon economic. According to the practical experience of EU, carbon emissions trading played a significant role on achieving emission reduction targets successfully. In this paper, the construction of carbon emissions trading system and sustainable development of China’s power industry has been systematically discussed. Moreover, the theoretical system of carbon emissions trading in power industry is analyzed in depth, which can provide decision support for low-carbon development of power industry.Here in this paper, the source of carbon emissions trading and its two forms:CDM and quota trading mechanism are firstly described, also the current application of two trading mechanisms are summarized. Trading principles of CDM and quota trading mechanism are compared. And effects of investment incentives of two kinds of trading mechanism are presented in oligopoly market and competitive market.The allocation mechanism of cabon emissions rights is discussed, which includes the allocation program and the allocation method, whose suitable scope are presented ultimately. On the other hand, the auction allocation method is introduced in carbon emissions trading market, through which two simulation examples of strict bidding and strategy bidding under different emission rates are proposed. Corporate profits in different strategies are analyzed, which can provide reference for the allocation design of cabon emissions trading.Three carbon emissions trading scheme are established, which are resource-based amendment scheme, load-based amendment scheme and first seller-based scheme. According to various trading sheme, maximize profits models are established within or outside the region between two types of service providers and generators. Finally, the characteristics of three carbon emissions trading scheme are revealed theoretically.Economy of carbon emissions in power industry is analyzed; what’s more, several economic indicators are established for the relationship of power demand and cost-effectiveness of system. The example of three bus network composed of coal units, combined cycle gas-fired units (CCg), the cycle turbines gas units (CTg) and load is proposed. In that network, cost-benefit analysis of system carbon emissions is analyzed in both cases of the availability of transmission constraints.Finally, the major problems of China’s carbon emissions trading market (CDM market and quota trading market) are summarized. Then, envisage of constructing carbon emissions trading system is presented, which involves the allocation scheme, pricing scheme and trading platform. Finally, some policy recommendations for improving China’s carbon emissions trading market are proposed.更多还原