【作者】 宋晓华；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 在全球气候变暖、能源短缺、污染日益严重的国际背景下,发展以低能耗、低排放为标志的低碳经济,实现可持续发展,正在成为世界各国经济发展的共同选择。低碳经济是中国面临的新选择、新机遇、新挑战,是改善生态环境、推动经济发展方式转变的发展模式。发电行业作为能源消耗量最多、CO2排放量最大的部门之一,其未来发展路径的正确与否直接影响到我国低碳经济的效果与成败。本文在前人研究基础上,对基于低碳经济的发电行业节能减排路径做了较为系统的研究：(1)历史数据是规划发电行业节能减排路径的基础。论文全面回顾了我国发电行业十年来发展概况、节能减排成果与存在的问题,分析了节能减排的潜力,明确了基于低碳经济的发电行业节能减排路径研究的现实起点。(2)电力需求预测是设计基于低碳经济的发电行业节能减排路径的前提条件。论文在对低碳经济背景下电力需求预测特点和影响因素分析的基础上,建立了基于蛙跳算法优化的回归分析、蛙跳改进支持向量机、改进灰色预测的组合预测模型,并利用该模型进行了实证分析,预测了2012年至2020年电力需求量,该预测是规划低碳经济下发电行业节能减排路径最重要的数据基础。(3)论文研究了低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的两条路径：低碳电源结构优化路径和化石能源发电低碳技术创新路径。其中第一条路径是解决发电行业低碳、节能减排的根本,因此对此路径做了重点研究。在对低碳电源结构规划原则分析的基础上,建立了基于多目标决策的低碳电源结构优化模型,并利用该模型进行了实证分析,量化分析了我国2012年至2020年发电行业优化后的电源结构、投入成本、二氧化碳减排贡献以及其它污染物减排等结果。第二条路径解决了化石能源发电的低碳和节能减排问题,分析了低碳创新技术的作用、发展障碍和发展规划,并分析了2012年至2020年开展各类创新技术的实施进度。(4)从行业监管角度研究了低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的评价体系,目标是为行业监管部门提供监督发电行业低碳、节能减排路径实现的程度和效果。构建了低碳经济下节能减排评价指标体系,建立了基于改进密切值法的综合评价模型,并利用该模型对华东区域的发电行业在2006年至2010年期间低碳、节能减排效果作了实证评价和研究。(5)提出了一系列保障发电行业实现低碳、节能减排的政策建议,为保障发电行业节能减排路径实现提供了宏观助力。论文在低碳经济理论、节能减排理论、产业发展理论的基础上,综合应用电力需求预测方法、多目标决策方法、综合效益评价方法,对低碳经济下发电行业节能减排进行了全面系统的研究。具体研究方法包括：文献综述研究方法、定量和定性相结合的方法、归纳和演绎相结合、重点性研究与系统性研究相结合、理论研究与实证分析相结合等。论文主要创新点如下：(1)建立了基于低碳经济的蛙跳算法优化的电力需求组合预测模型。该模型将单位GDP电耗作为影响因素引入模型,选择回归分析、蛙跳改进的支持向量机、改进灰色预测三种方法进行组合,并利用蛙跳算法优化组合权重。该模型更符合低碳发展、节能减排目标,预测精度更高,为低碳经济下发电行业节能减排路径规划奠定了良好的研究基础。(2)提出了基于低碳经济的发电行业节能减排的两条路径,分别为低碳电源结构优化路径和化石能源发电低碳技术创新路径。其中在电源结构优化研究中利用多目标决策方法对低碳电源结构进行优化分析,将C02排放量最少和总成本最低作为目标函数,以电力需求、备用容量、污染物排放、可再生能源最大装机容量为约束条件进行电源结构优化。该优化结果是既考虑CO2减排、又考虑成本效益的综合最优。(3)建立了低碳经济下发电行业节能减排效果的评价指标体系。该评价指标体系引入多个低碳、节能减排相关指标,并选用改进密切值法构建综合评价模型。(4)提出了保障基于低碳经济发电行业节能减排路径实现的政策建议。主要包括健全低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的法律法规体系、完善低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的经济政策、构建低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的市场机制、加强低碳经济下发电行业节能减排的监管工作四个方面。论文通过实证分析验证了设计的低碳经济下发电行业节能减排路径的理论研究是切实可行的,为我国规划发电行业提供了参考和借鉴,具有较好的理论价值和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the International background of global warming, energy shortages and worsening pollution, the development of low-carbon economy with low power consumption and lower emissions to achieve sustainable development is becoming a common choice for the world economic development. Low-carbon economy is a new choices, new opportunities and new challenges for China to improve the ecological environment and to shift the economic development mode. As a department with the largest energy consumption and CO2emissions, the benign development of power generation industry directly impact on the effectiveness of low-carbon economy. On the basis of previous studies, this paper conducted a more systematic study on the path of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry based on low-carbon economy:(1) Historical data is the fundation of planning the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industries, this paper took a comprehensive review of the achievements and existing problems of energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s power industry during the past ten years, and developed an analysis of the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry, lastly determined a realistic starting point of planning the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industries based on low-carbon economy.(2) Power demand forecast is the prerequisite for designing the path on energy conversation and energy reduction in power generation industies under the context of low-carbon economy. After analyzed the characteristics and influencing factors of electricity demand forecast, this paper built a optimal combination forecasting model based on regression analysis, support vector machine improved by leapfrog, improved gray predictionand, then, adopted this model to predict the demand for electricity from2012to2020. The forecasting results were the most important data for planning the development of the power generation industry under the context of low-carbon economy, so as to realize energy conservation and emission reduction.(3) The thesis designed two paths on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry based on low-carbon economy, which are the path of low-carbon power structure optimization and the path of low-carbon technology innovation of fossil energy power generation. The first path was mainly analyzed because it is the fundation to solve the problem of the lower carbon, energy conservation and emission reduction development of the power generation industry. Based on the analysis of planning principle for low-carbon power generation, this essay established an optimization model for low-carbon power generation structure by adopting the multi-objective decision-making method. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to quantitatively analyze the data, after the optimization from2012to2020, of power structure, input costs, contribution of CO2emissions and other pollutants emission reduction. The second path solved the problem of low-carbon technology and energy conservation methods of fossil energy power generation, discussed the function of low-carbon innovation, obstacles to development and development planning, and lastly analyzed the progress of the implementation of various innovative technologies from2012to2020.(4) From the perspective of the industry regulator, this parer reaserched the evaluation system of energy conservation and emission reduction in the power generation industry based on low-carbon economy, for the purpose of guaranteeing the work of energy conservation and emission reduction is effectively implemented in power generation industry. This chapter built an evaluation system based on low-carbon economy, and established a comprehensive evaluation model by improved osculating method. With this model, this paper conducted an empirical research analyzed the existing conditions of low-carbon, energy conservation and emission reduction development of power generation industry in eastern China region from the year2006to2010.(5) A series of policy recommendations were put forward to achieve a low-carbon and energy conversation development of power industry.On the basis of low-carbon economy theory, energy conservation and emission reduction theory, and industrial development theory, this paper carried out a comprehensive and systematic survey on the energy conservation and emission reduction through the integrated application of electricity demand forecasting methods, multi-objective decision-making technology, and comprehensive benefits evaluation method. Specific research methods included:literature review research methods, the combining of quantitative and qualitative method, inductive and deductive method, key research and systematic study, theoretical research and empirical analysis from2006to2010.The principle innovation points are show as follows:(1) Built the optimization combination forecasting model for power demand forecast based on the leapfrog algorithm and the context of low-carbon economy. As influencing factors, the power consumption per unit of GDP was introduced into the model. Also the regression analysis, support vector machines improved by leapfrog algorithm and improved gray prediction were combined to be the predict method, and use the leapfrog algorithm to optimize the weigh of the combination method. With a higher prediction accuracy, the model is more in line with the targets of low-carbon development, and lay a good basis for further study on energy saving and emission reduction in the power generation industry.(2) Designed two paths on energy conservation and emission reduction based on low-carbon economy, respectively the low-carbon power structure optimization path and the fossil energy low-carbon technology innovation path. On the view of the first path, multi-objective decision-making method was used to analyze the optimization of power structure based on low-carbon emission, among which, the minimum CO2emissions and the minimun total cost as the objective function, the electricity demand, spare capacity, pollutant emissions, the largest installed capacity of renewable energy as the constraints for power structure optimization. The optimization results considered the effect of CO2emission reduction as well as the cost-effectiveness.(3) Established an evaluation system of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry. The evaluation system creatively introduced a series of relevant indexess on low carbon and energy conservation, and adopted the modified osculating value method to build a comprehensive evaluation model.(4) Put forward policy recommendations of path realization of energy conservation and emission reduction in power industry under the background of low-carbon economy, which mainly includes four aspects:perfecting legal laws and regulations, improving the economic policies, building the market mechanisms and strengthening the supervision work.Based on the empirical analysis, this article verified the the feasibility and effectiveness of the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry under the background of low-carbon economy. It is of great practical significance and provides reference for planning the development of power generation industry.更多还原