【作者】 刘一民；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 电力工业是国家在能源领域的重大基础行业,是国民经济的命脉,对于我国经济建设、国家安全、社会稳定、人民生活质量提高具有至关重要的作用。近年来,节能减排方针在社会生产生活中不断深入,随着政府节能减排力度的不断加大,各项政策相继出台,清洁、可再生能源迅猛发展,高污染、高能耗的落后产业不断被淘汰,外部环境的改变,将对电网企业的收益产生重大影响。新的可再生能源发电对电网运行提出了更高的技术要求,为增强电网的可靠性和接纳能力,电网企业相应配套措施将大幅增加企业运营成本,导致电网企业收益风险增加；同时随着新能源并网趋势的不断增强,电网企业将面临电价空间缩小的局面,对企业的收入和利润也会产生重大影响。另外,传统的供电企业与用电客户之间的电费结算方式,节能减排政策落实导致高耗能产业欠费的不断增加,新欠费链的产生,给电网收益稳定保障工作带来了一定的影响。电网企业在我国有序的电力生产消费体系中起着不可动摇的纽带作用,收益风险的不断恶化,很可能影响整个电力供应大环境,因此,研究节能减排政策背景下电网企业收益风险管理工作,具有紧迫和强烈的现实意义。本文重点从以下几个方面进行了深入研究：(1)针对节能减排政策下电网企业收益风险因素进行了识别。首先分析了电网企业客户信用、峰谷分时电价管理、电力负荷预测准确性等传统因素的影响,同时,结合节能减排大环境的综合影响,对节能调度、可再生能源并网等重要因素进行了研究,综合的对电网企业在节能减排政策下的收益风险因素进行了全面识别。(2)针对节能减排政策下电网企业收益风险预警管理理论方法进行了研究。基于对电网企业收益的购电成本、售电收入受节能减排影响分析,分别建立了基于转移矩阵识别马尔科夫理论的购电结构预测模型,以及基于组合预测理论的电力负荷预测模型；同时运用组合权重的云模型理论对电网企业客户信用建立了综合评价模型。为电网企业增强收益风险预警管理提供了理论基础。(3)针对电网企业收益风险控制管理理论进行了研究。结合节能减排大环境对电网企业收益风险管理带来的要求,本文对电网企业节能调度管理以及峰谷分时电价管理理论方法进行了研究,同时从实践应用角度对收益风险控制策略进行了分析。(4)建立了节能减排政策下电网企业收益风险管理综合评价体系。结合综合评价理论,建立了全面的节能减排政策下的电网企业收益风险管理综合评价指标体系,并基于德尔菲法协同模糊层次分析理论进行了实证研究,为提高收益风险管理水平提供评价依据。(5)结合我国电网企业在节能减排政策下收益风险管理面临的风险和挑战,建立了科学的电网企业收益风险管控体系,从风险报告体系建设、信息系统建设、文化体系建设、组织机构建设以及监督评估与可持续改进机制进行了全面剖析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Electric power industry is one of the most important basic industries in the state energy field, which is the lifeblood of the national economy. It plays an important role in the field of economic construction, national security, social stability and the improvement of people’s living quality. In recent years, the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction has been constantly penetrating in social production and living. With the strengthening of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts, many relevant policies are issued, the clean and renewable energy sources is developing rapidly, and the traditional industries of high energy consumption and pollution are eliminated constantly. The change of external environment will have great influence on the earnings of power grid enterprises. The new renewable energy generation asks the operation of the grid for higher technical requirements. In order to enhance the reliability and receptivity of the power grid, the corresponding measures of power grid enterprise will boost enterprises’operation cost, leading to an increase of revenue risk. At the same time, with the growing of new energy grid-connection, power grid enterprises will face the situation that the electricity price space narrows, which has a significant impact on the enterprises’ earnings and profits. In addition, the traditional electricity charging methods between power supply companies and customers and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy lead to the increase of arrear of high energy consumption industries. The generation of new arrear chain brings certain influence on the security of power grid enterprises’earnings.Power grid enterprises play an unshakable bonding role in the orderly electric power production and consumption system of our country. The deterioration of earnings risk may affect the whole power supply environment. Therefore, it has urgent and strong practical significance to study the earnings risk management of power grid enterprises under the background of the energy conservation and emission reduction policy. This paper undertakes a sound study mainly from the following aspects:(1) Recognizing the income risk factors of power grid enterprises under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction. First, analyze the influence of traditional factors such as customers’credits of power grid enterprises, the management of peak and valley time price, power load forecasting accuracy and so on. Meanwhile, considering the energy-efficient scheduling, renewable energy grid-connection, and other important factors, this paper recognizes the earnings risk factors of power grid enterprises under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction comprehensively.(2) Studying the early-warning management theory method of power grid enterprises earnings risk under the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on the analysis of the influence on power grid enterprises’power purchase cost and sale income affected by energy saving and emission reduction policy, this paper establishes the power purchase structure prediction model based on the Markov Theory of transfer matrix recognition and the electric power load forecasting model based on Combined Forecasting Theory. In addition, it establishes an overall evaluation model on customers’credit of power grid enterprises based on cloud model theory with combined weight. The study provides a theoretical basis for the early-warning risk management of enhancing earnings of power grid enterprises.(3) Studying the theory of risk control management of power grid enterprises. This paper studies the methods of the energy-efficient scheduling management and the peak and valley time price management, combined with the requirements that the energy conservation and emission reduction policy puts forward. At the same time, the earnings risk control strategies have been analyzed from the angle of practical application.(4) Establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for power grid enterprises’ earnings risk management under the energy saving and emission reduction policy. Combined with comprehensive evaluation theory, the paper has established the comprehensive evaluation system of power grid enterprises’earnings risk management, conducted an empirical research based on the Delphi Theory and fuzzy-AHP Theory, and provided basis for evaluation on improving the earnings risk management level.(5) Building a scientific power grid enterprise earnings risk management and control system. Combined with the risks and challenges of earnings risk management power under the energy conservation and emission reduction policy, this paper has built a scientific power grid enterprise earnings risk management and control system, which is expected to analyze the construction of risk report system, information system, culture system, organization institution, supervision and evaluation, and sustainable improvement mechanism from an all-around perspective.更多还原