【作者】 李伟；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 农村电力市场中,农电供给与需求的均衡是保证农村电网稳定安全运行,实现农村经济可持续发展和提高广大农民生活水平的关键。因此,必须重视农村电力市场供求均衡分析。为实现农电市场供求均衡,需要做以下几方面工作：第一,构建农电市场需求预测模型对农电需求进行精确预测；第二,建立农电供给能力评价模型对农电供给能力进行有效地估测；第三,提出一种农村电力市场供给与需求均衡分析方法,分析判断农电市场供求均衡状况,并以此作为决策依据,从供给和需求两方面,提出相应对策,实现农电市场供求均衡。对上述问题的研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文在前人研究的基础上,对农电市场电力供给和需求均衡的相关理论和方法做了如下几方面的研究：(1)在对农电市场相关理论进行介绍的基础上,对影响农电市场供求均衡的主要因素进行了研究,提出了农电负荷和装机容量、农电供给方电源结构、气候因素、政策因素、农村经济发展状况和农电替代品为影响农电市场供求均衡的主要因素。(2)对农电市场的需求进行了分析,提出了农村电价、农村经济发展状况和政府相关政策为影响农电需求的主要因素。着重分析了家电下乡政策对农村生活用电需求的影响。(3)对常用的预测模型进行了研究。针对农村电力负荷受多种因素影响的特点,提出了PCA-MIX-SVM农电负荷预测模型,即基于主成分分析的混合支持向量机预测模型对农村电力负荷进行预测。在对电力需求预测的研究中,得出单一的预测方法很难保证获得精确度较高的预测结果。因此,本文建立了DS理论权重融合用电量需求预测模型,即分别建立支持向量机、多元回归、灰色用电量需求预测模型,再根据这三种方法的预测结果与实际值的误差,利用证据理论计算出各方法的组合权重,融合预测得到最终的用电需求。(4)在对农电市场供给能力分析过程中,本文研究了电力供给能力评价的一般方法以及农电市场供给能力的主要影响因素,提出了农网动态性能评价指标和静态性能评价指标。从供电可靠性、农网布局、线路状况、变压器状况四个方面构建了农村电网供给能力指标评价体系,在此基础上提出了基于熵权灰色区间关联的农电市场供给能力综合评价模型。(5)对市场均衡理论进行了研究,分析了农电市场均衡与一般市场均衡的不同点,从供给和需求两个角度论述了影响农电市场供求均衡实现的主要因素。在此基础上,对农电市场供求均衡模型和供求均衡判断方法进行了研究。以电力公司向发电企业购电角度,提出了基于GA-MPT最优购电策略的农电市场均衡模型。此外,本文分析了农电市场失衡的原因并提出了实现农电市场长期均衡的路径。(6)本文最后引入河北南网整个农电市场以及某样本县作为实例,对上文提出的模型和方法进行了应用,论述了农村电力市场供求均衡中存在的问题,提出了实现农电市场供求长期均衡的对策和建议。本文的主要创新点有以下几方面：首先,本文针对农村电力负荷预测影响因素较多这一特点,提出了基于PCA-MIX-SVM农电负荷预测模型,并验证了该模型具有较高的预测精度。其次,在用电量需求预测的研究中发现单一的预测方法很难保证预测精度,基于此本文提出了基于DS理论权重融合用电量需求预测模型,提高了用电量预测结果的精度。再次,本文在农电市场供给能力评价的研究中,构建了农村电网供给能力指标评价体系,并提出了基于熵权灰色区间关联的农电市场供给能力综合评价模型。最后,本文对农电市场供求均衡模型和供求均衡判断方法进行研究,提出了基于GA-MPT最优购电策略的农电市场均衡模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the rural power market, the balance of supply and demand of rural electricity is the key factor to guarantee the stable operation of rural electricity market, realize the sustainable development of the rural economy and improve the living standard of the majority of farmers. Therefore, we must pay attention to the rural power market supply and demand equilibrium analysis. To realize the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market, we should do some work as follows. First, an rural power market demand forecasting model should be built to make a precise forecast of power demand. Second, build a reasonable evaluation model of power supply capacity. Third, put forward a scientific and reasonable rural electric power market supply and demand equilibrium analysis method to judge the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market. On the basis of that method, optimize the supply and demand of rural power, then realize the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural power market. Therefore, this research has vital theoretic value and practical significance.On the basis of previous study, this paper studied the related theory and method of the supply and demand balance of rural power market in the following aspects.(1)The main factors of equilibrium of supply and demand is studied on the basis of the introduction of rural market related theory. The paper put forward the load and the installed capacity, the suppliers’power structure, climate factors, policy factors, the rural economy development status and the substitutes are main factors of the equilibrium of supply and demand, and a detailed study of the achievements of the load the influence of the equilibrium of supply and demand.(2)The demand of the rural electricity market is studied in the paper. The paper proposed the rural electricity price, rural economic development, the construction management level of rural electricity and government policy are the main influence factors of demand. The home appliance to the countryside policy impact on electricity demand for rural residents is studied in this paper.(3)The common prediction model is studied in this paper. The PCA-MIX-SVM power load forecasting model is put forward on the basis of many influence factors of electricity load, that is the principal component analysis based on mixed support vector machine rural power load forecasting model. In the research of power demand prediction, we find that a single prediction method is hard to ensure that you get more accurate prediction results. Therefore, this paper proposed the power consumption demand forecasting model based on DS weight theory, that is, respectively established the support vector machine (SVM), multiple regression, grey power consumption demand forecasting model, and then predict the error of real dates and practical values based on the three methods, and use the evidence theory to calculate the combination weights of various methods, and the final prediction electricity demand is calculated.(4)In the analysis of market supply ability, the article studied the evaluating methods of power supply ability and the main influencing factors of rural electric market supply capacity, and the dynamic performance evaluation index and rural electric static performance evaluation indexes were put forward. From the power supply reliability, site layout, line condition, transformer condition four aspects, rural power grid building supply capacity evaluation index system was proposed in the article, and on the basis of that, the rural electric market comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight gray interval correlation model was proposed in the article.(5)The market equilibrium theory was studied in this article. It analyzed the difference between the rural market equilibrium and the general market equilibrium, and summarized the main factors which influence the equilibrium of supply and demand in the rural market from the supply and demand aspect respectively. On the basis of that, the paper studied the equilibrium model of supply and demand and balance judgement method of supply and demand. From the interests of power purchase, this article proposed the rural market equilibrium model based on GA-MPT optimal power purchase strategy. At the same time, a detailed analysis on the imbalances of rural market was given in this paper and the way to realize long-term equilibrium of rural electric market was also proposed.(6)This thesis introduced the Hebei south electric grids rural market and Hebei south electric grid sample county rural area as cases to verify the models proposed above and pointed out the problems of rural electric power market equilibrium. At the same time, the measure and suggestion of realizing the rural electric market long-term equilibrium were put forward in this article.The main innovation points are listed as follows. Firstly, a novel forecast model named PCA-MIX-SVM rural market load forecasting model was put forward in this paper for the character that so many influence factors of rural power load forecasting are exist, and the forecasting accuracy was testified in the paper. Secondly, in the demand forecasting of power consumption we found that a single prediction method was difficult to ensure the prediction accuracy, and based on this DS theory weight fusion power consumption demand forecasting model was put forward in this paper to improve the power consumption forecasting accuracy. Thirdly, in the study of rural power market supply capacity evaluation, the rural power grid supply capacity evaluation index system was built, and the rural power market supply ability comprehensive evaluation model based on entropy weight and grey correlation was put forward in this paper. Finally, the equilibrium model of supply and demand and balanced judgment method were studied in this paper and the rural power market equilibrium model based on optimal power purchase was put forward in this paper.更多还原