【作者】 喻杉；

【导师】 纪昌明；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 水是生命之源、生产之要、生态之基,2012年全国两会政府工作报告指出要积极发展水电并提高可再生能源比重,中电联亦在其十二五规划综述报告中指出要优先开发水电,大中小开发相互配合,推进流域梯级水电系统的综合开发,提高电力系统运行的经济性和灵活性,促进可再生能源发电的合理消纳。因此,在水电高速大发展时期,如何有效研究并开展梯级水电站水库群的优化调度管理工作,充分发挥非工程措施的潜在效益,是当今社会经济急需解决的重大课题。开展大型流域梯级水电站水库群优化调度,充分发挥水库群之间的补偿调节作用,是提高水能利用率、实现水资源利用最大化的重要手段；坚持科学调度,善用科学方法,使“经验型、粗放型、定性型”的水库调度工作向“科学化、精细化、定量化”转变,是实现国家节能减排政策的重要途径。本文以金沙江中游梯级水电站水库群为研究对象,开展联合优化调度研究工作,分别针对不同长度的调节期,从优化模型构建、调度规则制定、负荷曲线分析等多个角度系统深入地探讨了梯级水库群的优化调度管理问题,取得了如下主要成果：(1)基于群集智能优化算法具有快速求解复杂优化问题的优点,针对由于传统蚁群算法根据伪随机比例规则选择路径时其变异过于盲目随机、信息素挥发过快等原因导致的种群规模较大时算法易陷入局部最优或收敛变慢等缺点,提出了基于逐步优化变异算子的改进蚁群算法POM-ACO,利用指导式变异模块增强蚁群的性能,并采用自适应调整信息素挥发因子机制来改善水库优化调度计算的收敛速度,为大型优化问题的求解提供了一条快速途径。(2)在深入探究采用典型年径流资料编制的年调节水库常规调度图难以充分发挥水库运行效益等不足的基础上,结合群集智能算法的优势,创建了基于改进蚁群算法的水库调度图编制模型,在应用于盘龙河下游电站马鹿塘水库的实际项目中,从保证出力和发电量等指标证明了基于逐步优化变异算子的改进蚁群算法求解水库优化调度问题的有效性。(3)水电站调度函数决策清晰明确运行效益明显,针对传统调度函数纯粹数值模拟的生成未考虑水电站水库调度自身特点,存在一定的优化空间,提出了基于改进蚁群算法的调度函数优化模型,利用蚁群个体之间的信息交互与合作对初始调度函数的系数扰动序列值进行迭代寻优,使优化后的调度函数可显著提高水电站水库的运行效益,充分体现出模型的实用性,可有效指导水电站水库的实际调度运行,并为水电站水库的优化调度管理研究提供了新的思路。(4)从水库调度基本原理出发,结合优化思想,充分考虑径流预报资料,提出了数学模型化的梯级水电站水库预报预泄发电调度运行规则,并应用于金沙江中游梯级水电站水库群的实际调度管理项目中。该预报预泄发电调度规则不仅更加切合实际和方便操作,而且运行效果仅次于优化调度方案,较常规运行方案有显著提升；此外,通过对不同时期梯级水电站水库预报预泄运行规则分别研究拟定,在不断滚动预报的基础上根据预报入库流量的大小进行滚动调度,更加易于修正预报误差带来的不利影响,从而提高调度结果的精度；该预报预泄调度规则的表达形式具有很好的实用性及较强的操作性,便于应用并推广到实际的生产调度工作中,既保证了防洪安全,又兼顾水库发电效益的最大化,实现了发电效益与防洪效益的有机结合。(5)电网安全稳定运行要求电站的出力特性与系统负荷特性尽量吻合,充分考虑电网发电侧和需求侧的要求,建立了基于负荷曲线的梯级水电站水库群短期发电优化调度模型,根据负荷曲线形状分配电站的出力过程,合理利用水库的日、周调节库容,使得电站的出力过程与负荷曲线基本一致,并有效保证了梯级电站的发电量效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the source of the life, production to, the foundation of ecological, the government work report of two sessions in2012points out that to actively develop the hydropower and raise the proportion of renewable energy sources, as well as that the Twelfth Five-Year Plan report by China Electricity Council points out that hydropower should be developed preferentially with the cooperation of different developing scales, and promote the comprehensive development of cascade hydropower system and reasonable acceptance of renewable energy with the improvement of efficiency and flexibility of power system operation. Therefore, in the high speed development period of hydropower, how to carry out effective research and optimal dispatching management of cascade hydropower stations, and give full play to the potential benefits of non-structural measures, is a major issue of social economy today.Carrying out the scientific optimization and economic dispatch of cascaded reservoirs group, giving full play to the regulatory effect of hydropower station and improving accuracy of water regime prediction are important means to improve the waterpower utilization rate of basin hydropower reservoirs and realize the maximum of water resources utilization. Adhering to the scientific dispatch and making the best use of scientific methods is an important way to realize the national policy of energy saving and emission reduction, which changes the reservoirs dispatch work from "experienced, extensive and qualitative" type to "scientific, careful and quantified" one. Taking Jinsha River middle reaches hydropower stations as example, the paper gives a further discussion on the problems of the optimization dispatching management of cascaded reservoirs group. Aiming at different length of dispatching period, the discussion is centering on the basic theory of reservoirs, from different angles such as the construction of the optimization model, the formulation of the dispatching rules, the analysis of load curve and so on. The main results are as follows:(1) The optimization algorithm of swarm intelligence has the advantage of solving problems quickly. When choosing the route according to the pseudo-random ratio rules, the variation of traditional ant colony algorithm is blindly random and the pheromone volatilizes too quickly. Thus, the algorithm will be trapped in local optimum or slow convergence when the population size is large. The improved ant colony algorithm POM-ACO based on the progressive optimized mutation operator is put forward. Using the variation module of guiding type to improve the performance of the ant colony, and making use of the mechanism of self-adaption pheromones volatile factor will improve the convergence speed of the optimization dispatching of reservoirs.(2) As the routine operation chart of annual regulation reservoir is made out according to typical annual runoff material, it is hard to make full use of the maximum operation efficiency of reservoirs. Because of this disadvantage, the establishment model of the reservoir operation chart based on the improved ant colony algorithm is proposed. Making full use of all the long serial hydrologic data that is given, the effectiveness of using the improved ant colony algorithm based on the mutation operator of gradual optimization to solve the problem of the optimization dispatching of reservoirs is proved. This can be proved through the case study of the guaranteed output and the generated energy.(3) The decision of dispatching function of the hydropower station is clear and the operation efficiency is obvious. Because the traditional dispatching function is generated of pure numerical simulation without considering the characteristics of reservoirs, and there is certain space for optimization, the dispatching function optimization model based on the ant colony algorithm is proposed. This model operates the Iterative optimization of the value of the coefficient perturbation sequence of the initial dispatching function. After optimization, the dispatching function will improve the operation efficiency of the reservoir hydropower station obviously. Thus, it will fully reflect the practicality of the model, and the model will effectively guide the actual dispatching operation of hydropower station. Moreover, it provides new ideas for the optimization dispatching research of the reservoir hydropower station.(4) Starting from the basic principle of reservoirs and combining with the optimization idea, the mathematical modeling power dispatching operation rules of the discharge forecast of the cascade reservoir of hydropower stations is proposed and applied into the practical operation project of cascade hydropower stations in Jinsha River middle reaches, which makes full consideration of the runoff forecast material. These rules are not only more practical and convenient in operation, and the effect of it is second only to the operation optimization dispatching solution, which has an obvious improvement compared with the routine operation scheme. In addition, it is easier to correct the bad influence of the prediction error by the method that the reservoir prediction discharge operation rules of cascade hydropower stations is respectively determined by different period. Moreover, it is rolling scheduled according to the size of the forecasted incoming flow, and it will improve the accuracy of the results. In addition, the reservoir prediction discharge operation rules have a good practicability and strong in operation. It is suitable to apply in the actual dispatching. Not only ensure the safety of flood control, but also give consideration to maximize the power benefit of reservoir. It realizes the goal of combining the power benefit and flood control benefit dynamically with the characteristics of innovative, scientific, reasonable and practical.(5) The safe and stable operation of the power network requires the output characteristics anastomosed with the system load characteristics as more as possible. With adequate consideration of requirements of both generation side and demand side, the short-term power optimization-dispatching model of cascaded reservoirs based on the load curve is established the output process of the power station is distributed according to the shape of the load curve. Using the daily and weekly regulating storage of reservoirs properly makes the output process in accordance with the load curve. In the meanwhile, the maximization of the generated energy is pursued.更多还原