【作者】 张蓉；

【导师】 郑克强；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着互联网技术的迅速发展以及互联网在我国的快速普及,越来越多的公众开始接触、熟悉和运用网络平台这一高效沟通工具,他们通过各种表达方式在网络平台上发表对于公共事务及公共话题的意见和建议,从而催生网络民意表达迅速发展。目前,我国正处于经济发展的机遇期,同时也处于各种社会矛盾的凸显期。根据中等收入先行国家的经验教训,在这个阶段,若不注重社会管理,贫富差距会进一步拉大；不注重公众参与和民意表达,社会矛盾会更加突出,以致发展到难以控制的程度。尤其值得关注的问题是,由于网络民意表平台的成本低、反馈快、容量大、自由度高等特点所决定,使得我国当前的社会管理问题更加复杂,任务更加紧迫、环境也更加难以控制。2011年2月19日,胡锦涛总书记在省部级主要领导干部关于“社会管理及其创新”的专题研讨班发表的讲话中,指出要着重研究加强和创新社会管理,并强调要扎扎实实提高社会管理的科学化水平,这不仅标志着从“十二五”起我国进入了全面加强和创新社会管理的新时期,也给新形势下结合网络民意表达推进社会管理创新提供了重要思路。基于这些背景,用系统动力学方法对网络民意表达推进社会管理创新问题进行定性和定量分析,具有重要的现实意义。本文共九章,大致可分为四个部分：第一部分阐述了网络民意表达和社会管理的相关理论及方法。通过对国内外有关网络民意表达、社会管理以及两者间关系的有关文献的梳理,明确本文的研究主体及相关概念的界定范围。同时,对民意场理论、社会冲突理论、公民社会理论及系统动力学方法等进行说明,为后面阐述网络民意表达与社会管理的关系及仿真分析奠定基础。第二部分基于相关理论、现实案例及实地调研,定性分析网络民意表达的基本特点,网络民意表达与社会管理之间的关系,以及反思网络民意表达推进社会管理创新的作用。(1)通过调研及现实案例分析,定性判断网络民意表达的基本特点、总体结构及发展趋势。对当前网络民意表达的主要形式——网上信访、网络民意调查、微博以及新闻跟帖、论坛等载体的功能以及其在社会管理中的表现进行比较分析,从而总结出网络民意表达具有成本低、反馈快、容量大、互动性强、自由度高等基本特点；网络民意表达的总体结构为表达主体多元化、表达内容“原生态”、表达平台“零成本”、表达结果具“冲击效应”等；网络民意表达的发展趋势为：表达主体的范围将继续扩大、表达行为将日趋理性、与社会管理互动作用将更明显、与传统媒体的融合将更紧密、同时将推动我国民主政治的进步。(2)根据理论和现实两个视角的相互观照,揭示网络民意表达与社会管理之间的关系。通过对社会冲突理论的分析,揭示出民意表达解决社会冲突的可能性；通过对民意——政策模型的分析,揭示出民意表达与社会管理之间的矛盾性、互补性与导向性。同时,通过对现实中三个代表性案例的深入剖析,进一步验证网络民意表达在社会管理中的作用：由武汉公交车民意风波事件的“风波由来”至“风波平息”的过程,验证网络民意对于社会管理的核心工具——公共政策所具有的导向作用；由广东陆丰乌坎事件的“高潮期至回落期”的发展过程,验证网络民意与政府回应的良性互动,可以有效解决社会管理中的冲突和矛盾；而四川会理PS事件则进一步验证了网络民意与政府回应的良性互动,可以化“危”为“机”有效解决矛盾冲突,在社会管理中具有积极意义。(3)针对网络民意表达和政府回应中出现的问题,对网络民意表达推进社会管理创新的作用进行辨证反思。一方面,从网络民意表达看,提出由网民结构失衡、网民表达的自由与离散、网民的非理性与情绪化等引起的“网络民意是否可以代替真正民意”这一问题,通过进一步分析互联网相关报告数据以及大量现实案例,可以看到网民表达正在由非理性向理性的转变；另一方面,从政府对网络民意的回应上看,由于存在强权压制民意、过滤民意以及伪造民意等现象,而产生的“网络民意是否为决策主体合理运用”这一问题,通过近几年的相关案例分析,可以看到政府对待网络民意从视而不见到积极面对的转变、从手足无措到乱中有序的转变、从操控民意到顺应民意的转变。第三部分采用系统动力学方法,对社会管理主体行为进行基模定性分析,并对网络民意表达的新系统——政务微博系统的发展,进行定量仿真分析。(1)通过对社会管理主体行为的基模分析,进一步验证了网络民意表达推进社会管理创新的作用。政府和公众作为社会管理的主要主体,在社会管理过程中起着决定性作用,而通过建立政府决策不透明导致的饮鸩止渴基模、政府强制执行政策的舍本逐末基模、公众参与的成长上限基模、公众参与的富者愈富基模以及公众参与政策制定的良性循环基模,并针对基模导致的问题提出相应的杠杆解,从而得出重视网络民意表达,充分利用网络平台,可以达到政府与公众的良性互动等杠杆解,以解决基模中出现的问题。(2)采用反馈环逐增仿真新方法,对中国旅游官方政务微博系统的发展作了定量仿真分析。反馈环逐增仿真法符合系统基本结构特征,实现了还原论与整体论的结合,使仿真模型更为规范化,并有利于提高系统的可靠性。本文首先建立旅游政务微博数量与参与旅游政务微博网民人数互促增长正反馈环仿真基本模型,并对其进行定量仿真分析；接着,在此基础上,建立由虚假信息导致的制约政务微博系统发展的负反馈环,和促使旅游政务微博数量增加的正反馈环,从而得到虚假信息政务微博系统的增长上限仿真基本模型,并对其进行定量仿真研究。(3)通过对网络民意表达新系统——政务微博系统的定量仿真研究,揭示了政务微博系统在“十二五”期间的发展区间。在建立旅游政务微博数量与参与旅游政务微博网民人数互促增长正反馈环仿真基本模型以及虚假信息政务微博系统发展增长上限仿真基本模型这两个基模的基础上,通过参数调控,即分别从全国综合影响力排名前十的政务微博中,选取政务微博数量与网民数量比例的平均值、最大值以及旅游微博其自身的比例三种情况,对政务微博系统的发展作了定量数据和曲线比较分析,得出到“十二五”末2015年,旅游政务微博数以及网民人数将有较大发展的结论。(4)仿真结果与仿真曲线论证了我国相关政策阐述的充分运用政务微博系统,提高虚拟社会管理水平的正确性。继十七大提出要逐步提高群众在政治生活、社会生活中的“知情权、参与权、表达权、监督权”后,2011年2月19日,胡锦涛总书记在中央党校关于“社会管理及其创新”的专题研讨班发表的讲话中,进一步强调要通过完善信息网络管理,来提高虚拟社会管理水平,并健全网络舆论引导机制。2011年8月2日,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《关于深化政务公开加强政务服务的意见》,进一步强调了政府信息公开、行政权力公开透明运行的重要性等。由于网络民意表达系统在“十二五”期间必将会有一个高速发展,其在社会管理创新中的作用也必将会有更广阔的空间。第四部分是参考借鉴先进国家与地区的社会管理相关经验,通过反馈基模对策生成法与反馈基模对策实施效应分析法结合,进行网络民意表达推进社会管理创新的有效对策生成与应用研究。首先,本文提出了社会管理创新的机制构想,即民意表达社会化机制、决策科学民主化机制、公众参与有序化机制和网络平台健全化机制。并在此基础上,通过反馈基模对策生成法与反馈基模对策实施效应分析法结合,进行网络民意表达推进社会管理创新的有效对策生成与应用研究。第一、积极面对网络民意表达,创新社会管理观念；第二、营造良好的表达环境,完善网络民意表达平台；第三、加快网络基础建设,扩大民意表达参与面；第四、加大政府专门人员培训,提高网络民意沟通水平。第五、提出政府应对网络突发事件的重要原则,第一时间给关注,生死时速；坦诚直面给态度,勇于担当；真诚沟通给信息,拨云见日；适时引入第三方,间接佐证；口径一致给说法,井然有序；以已度人给安抚,智止纷争；保留余地给退路,化“危”为“机”。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of Internet technology and the popularity of the Internet in China, more and more public begin to use the network platform for communicating. They express their opinions and suggestions about public affairs through a variety of ways in a network platform, and thus gave birth to the rapid development of network public expression. At present, China is in the period of opportunities of economic development, but also in the period of appearances of social contradictions. According to middle-income countries’ experiences, at this stage, if the governments do not pay attention to social management, the gap between the rich and the poor will further be widen; if the governments do not pay attention to public participation and public opinion expression, social contradictions will become more prominent and difficult to control. Of particular concern is that: with the characteristics of low cost, fast feedback, large capacity, higher degree of freedom, network platform has made social management issues more complex, social management tasks more urgent, social management environment more difficult to control. General Secretary Hu Jin-tao’s important speech in the opening ceremony of the Central Party School provincial and ministerial level leading cadres of social management and its innovative symposium on February19,2011, profoundly expounded the importance and urgency to strengthen and innovate social management, he gave emphasis on improving the scientific level of virtual social management, that not only means China has entered a new period of comprehensively strengthen and innovate social management since the beginning of "12th Five-Year", but also provides an important idea to promote social management innovation combining with network public opinion expression in the new situation. Based on these backgrounds, using the system dynamics method to give qualitative and quantitative analysis on networks public opinion expression promoting social management innovation, has important practical significance.This dissertation totally has nine chapters, and can be divided into four parts:The first part describes the related theories and methods of network public opinion expression and social management. By reviewing the relevant literature on network public opinion expression, social management and their relationship at home and abroad, clearly define the subject and the related range of the study. At the same time, give explanations of public opinion field theory, social conflict theory, civil society theory and system dynamics method, on the basis of revealing the relationship between network public opinion expression and social management and simulation analysis.The second part analyzes the characteristics of network public opinion expression, the relationship between network public opinion expression and social management, as well as the role of network public opinion expression in social management innovation, based on the theory, cases and researches.(1) Through the researches and cases, this dissertation analyzes the characteristics, structure and the trend of network public opinion expression. The dissertation comparatively analyzes functions of the main form of network public opinion expression, such as online petition, online polls, micro-blog, forums etc. and also analyzes their representations in social management. Then the dissertation concludes that network public opinion expression has basic characteristics about low cost, fast feedback, large capacity, highly interactive. The overall structure of network public opinion expression are diverse expression subjects, original expression content, low expression cost and shock effect of expression results. The trend of network public opinion expression are that the scope of expression subject will continue to expand, the expression behavior will become more rational, the interaction with social management will become more apparent, the integration of traditional media will be more close, at the same time, it will promote the progress of China’s democratic politics.(2) From theoretical and practical perspectives, to reveal the relationship between network public opinion expression and social management. The dissertation reveals that network public opinion expression has the possibility to solve social conflicts by the analysis of social conflict theory; reveals the contradiction, complementary and oriented between network public opinion expression and social management by the analysis of public opinion-policy model. Meanwhile, the dissertation validates the role of network public opinion expression in social management by analyzing three typical cases in reality. Wuhan buses public opinion storm verifies that network public opinion expression is the orientation of the public decision which is the core of the social management tools; Guangdong Lufeng Wukan event verifies that the positive interaction between network public opinion expression and the government can effectively resolve the conflicts and contradictions in social management; Sichuan PS event verifies that the positive interaction can make the crises to opportunities and it has significance meanings in the social management.(3) According to the problems in network public opinion expression and the governmental response, this paper further discusses the role of network public opinion expression in social management innovation. On one hand, from network public opinion expression, we put forward the problem that "whether network public opinion can replace the real public opinion", and then give the certain answer according to the related Internet report data as well as a number of practical cases; On the other hand, from governmental response, we put forward the problem that "whether public opinion is reasonable applied for decision-making", we can also answer the question from the changes of the governmental response.The third part qualitatively analyzes the behaviors of social management main subjects and quantitatively simulation analyzes the development of administrative micro-blog system with system dynamics method.(1) By analyzing the fundamental model of the behaviors of social management main subjects, further verifies the effect which network public opinion expression promotes social management innovation. Government and the public as the main subjects in social management, they play decisive role in the process of social management. While constructing the fundamental model caused by government opaque decision-making, the fundamental model caused by government enforce polices, the growth limit fundamental mode of public participation, the rich getting richer fundamental model of the public participation, and the benign cycle fundamental model of public participation in policy formulation, and puts forward the related leverage solution for the problems caused by fundamental model, thus it can obtain the leverage solutions that pay attention to network public opinion expression, make full use of the network platform, can achieve the benign interaction of government and the public and so on, to solve the problems in the fundamental model.(2) By feedback loop simulation new method, quantitatively simulation analyzes the development of Chinese tourism official government micro-blog system. The feedback loop simulation method is in accordance with the basic structural features of the system, achieves the combination of reductionism and holism, makes simulation model more standardized, and help to improve the reliability of the system. Firstly, this paper establishes the growth positive feedback loop simulation model of the number of tourism-governmental micro-blog and Internet users participating in tourism-governmental micro-blog, and quantitative simulation analysis this model; then, establishes the negative feedback loop caused by the false information, and the other positive feedback loop to promote tourism-governmental micro-blog increase, so all three feedback loops forms the limit growing basic model of tourism-governmental micro-blog system.(3) By the qualitative simulation research of the administrative micro-blog system, reveals the developmental range of administrative micro-blog system in the "12th Five-Year" period. On the basis of positive feedback loop simulation fundamental model of the number of tourism-governmental micro-blog and Internet users participating in tourism-governmental micro-blog, and the development growth limit simulation fundamental model of false information tourism-governmental micro-blog system, the dissertation respectively with proportion of the number of micro-blog and Internet users’maximum, average and tourism-governmental micro-blog itself, quantitatively analyzes the simulation data and simulation curves, obtaining the conclusion that the number of tourism-governmental micro-blog and Internet users participating in tourism-governmental micro-blog will have a greater development at the end of "12th Five-Year".(4) The simulation result and simulation curves demonstrated the accuracy of related policies that making full use of administrative micro-blog system and improve the level of virtual social management. After putting forward to improve "the rights to know, to participate, to express, to supervise" of masses in the political life and social life in17th conference, Hu Jintao general secretary gave a speech in the central party school on February19,2011, he stressed to strengthen and improve the information network management, to improve the management level of virtual society, and to improve the mechanism of public opinion guide online. On August2,2011, the general office of the Party Central Committee, the general office of the state council issued the suggestions on deepening the opening of government services, further emphasized the importance of government information publicity, administrative power operation transparent. As the network public opinion expression system will have a greater development in "12th Five-Year" period, its role in the social management innovation will also have a broader space.The fourth part is a reference for the social management experiences of advanced countries and regions, combining the analysis on the feedback base model generation methods and countermeasures implementation effect feedback base model, conducts the effective measures of network public opinion expression promoting social management innovation. First, puts forward the mechanism of social management innovation, that are opinion expression socialization system, decision-making scientific and democratic mechanism, public participation ordering system and network platform sound mechanism. Then through the feedback base model generation methods and countermeasures implementation effect feedback base model, puts forward the countermeasures of social management innovation. Firstly, face actively network public opinion expression, innovate social management concepts; secondly, improve the public’s accomplishment, and build a good environment of expression network; thirdly, speed up the construction of network infrastructure, expand the aspects of public opinion expression; Fourthly, strengthen the government specialized personnel training, improve the network communication level of public opinion; at last, propose important principles for government to deal with network emergencies, to pay attention in the first time; to face with the emergencies directly; to give the information in sincere communication; to introduce third-party timely; to a give the same explanation; to appease others by putting themselves in the same circumstance and to retain room for retreating.更多还原