选择性转移、人力资本深化与内生农业发展

【作者】 李志俊；

【导师】 郭剑雄；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 人口资源与环境经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 由于自然禀赋特别是人力资本投资的非匀质性,经典的发展经济学文献中劳动力齐质性假定显著地背离了事实。中国的经验表明,农村劳动力转移不仅是农业劳动力数量的减少过程,同时伴随该过程的有劳动力质量的流失——其突出表现是由年轻化、男性化所体现的转移劳动力的高人力资本特征,也即劳动力转移的选择性特征。本项研究基于家庭视角,认为农业人力资本的投资和形成可以成为劳动力选择性转移行为的被解释变量。理性的农民及其家庭面对非农产业显著高于农业的工资率,当劳动力市场开放且当转移收益大于转移成本时,农民就可能在跨部门“套利”动机的驱使下转向非农就业；当教育等人力资本投资有利于提高转移概率、非农工资率进而增进转移收益,并有利于降低转移成本时,农民就会提高转移能力的人力资本投资；同时,劳动力的选择性转移导致了农村有劳动力转移的家庭的小规模化和高素质倾向；当人力资本回报率在工业化、城市化进程中呈现不断提升之势,且大于其他投资的收益率时,农民就会加速这种投资,实现人力资本积累的动态增长。劳动力的择优性转移,无疑会加速消除过剩农业劳动力数量,且有利于提高农业部门物质资本积累率,并在更大程度上实现物质资本对劳动的替代,同时,伴随选择性转移过程的还有农村居民人力资本投资需求的增长和农业劳动力人力资本的动态深化。资源结构的变化引致要素投入结构的改变,相应地,由投入结构或动力结构所决定的农业发展方式也将由古典、新古典方式逐渐向内生方式演进。在内生农业发展方式下,人力资本及其推动的技能偏态技术进步对产出增长存在决定性影响。当前,中国劳动力非农化的选择性特征,既向传统的古典和新古典农业发展方式提出挑战,也孕育着内生农业发展方式生成的巨大契机。在农业内生发展的分析框架下,农业部门的人力资本积累率决定着农业的增长路径。在时间轴上,中国农业投入要素之间存在长期替代趋势,且人力资本的作用不容忽视。农业技术进步表现为土地密集型转向农业机械动力和化肥的物质资本密集型,而且农业机械动力的技术进步要快于化肥施用的技术进步。随着非农转移和劳动力数量过剩的消除,技能偏态技术进步将逐渐成为中国农业技术进步的主要类型；其时,劳动力的技能或人力资本积累亦将取代其他要素成为中国农业发展所依凭的关键性资源。将农业人力资本水平的不断提升乃至最终与非农人力资本水平趋同,可作为工业化和城市化背景下农业完成现代化改造的充分条件估计中国农业发展的前景。两部门人力资本水平差距日渐扩散的情形之下,农业现代化的前景是不容乐观的传统发展方式。若农业和非农部门劳动力的人力资本在低水平上收敛,或者农业现代化的时点大大推迟的情形下,较低的人力资本积累率导致的人力资本存量,将会成为实现农业现代化的一个“短板”,农业部门在长期内处于“低水平均衡”状态。两部门均为高人力资本积累率并趋同的情景下,劳动力的异质化问题将因此最终会回归到同质化：农业劳动力素质的改善、农业技术的升级以及农业组织的企业化等一系变化,导向农业的现代化。在劳动力选择性转移背景下,农业发展政策的调节主要目标,应由物质资本及其承载的技术这些客体性要素的增长转向劳动者素质的提高和有利于农村劳动力转移的制度环境建设方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 The classic development economics literatures deviate significantly from the facts due to the heterogeneity of individual endowment, especially investment in human capital. China’s experience shows that rural labor transfer not only reduces the agricultural labor, but loses the quality, which is embodied by the young and mail labor with high human capital level, namely the selectivity of labor transfer. Based on the household perspective this study agues that the investment and formation of agriculture human capital can be explained variables for the selective transfer behavior of the labor force. The rational farmers and their households, faced with the higher wage rate than that of the non-agricultural, maybe shift to non-agricultural section when the labor market opens and the shift earnings are more than transfer cost. The farmers will adjust expenditure structure to increase human capital investment when education and human capital investment is helpful to improve the transition probability and the non-agricultural wage rate and reduce the cost of transfer. Meanwhile,the selectivity of labor transfer leads to the smaller family and higher quality tendency. When human capital return continues in the trend of ascension in the industrialization and the urbanization process and greater than other investment, the farmers will accelerate the investment and realize the dynamic growth of human capital accumulation.The selectivity transfer of labor force, no doubt, will accelerate to remove excess agriculture labor force, and to improve the material capital accumulation of the agriculture department, and substitute for the material capital in more degree. At the same time, the growth of the demand of human capital investment of the rural residents and the dynamic deepening of the human capital of the agricultural labor force are along with the selective transfer process.The changes of the structure of inputs are caused by the change of the structure of resources. The agricultural development mode, decided by the input structure or power structure will gradually evolve from classical, new classical way to the evolution of endogenous mode. Within endogenous agricultural development mode, human capital and skill-biased technological progress have decisive influence on output growth. At present, the selectivity transfer of the China’s labor force challenges the traditional classical and new classical agricultural and provides huge opportunity of the endogenous agricultural development mode.In the endogenous framework of the agricultural development of, the growth of agriculture path is decided by human capital accumulation rate. In the time axis, China’s agricultural input elements present substitutes trend, and the role of human capital cannot be neglected. The advance of agricultural technology performance for land intensity agricultural machinery power and fertilizer to the substance capital intensive. Agricultural machinery power technology progress is faster than the application of fertilizer technology progress. With the non-agricultural section transfer of and the elimination of surplus labor force, the of skilled-biased technology progress will gradually become the main type of agricultural technology, when labor skills or human capital accumulation will also replace other elements and become the key resources of China agriculture development.The promotion of agricultural human capital level and the convergence of the human capital level between agricultural and non-agricultural section, can be used as the complement and sufficient condition in the background of urbanization and industrialization and agricultural modernization transformation to predict the of Chinese agricultural development prospect. The gap of human capital level between the two sections grows gap, the prospect of agricultural modernization is not optimistic,which is traditional development mode. If agriculture and non-agricultural labor department of human capital in the low level convergence, or agricultural modernization points of the delay in the case of a great, low human capital accumulation rate of the cause of human capital, will be to realize agricultural modernization of a "short board", the agriculture department in the long term is in "the low level balance" state. The human capital of two sectors converges in a higher level, workforce heterogeneous problem will therefore will eventually return to homogeneous. Agricultural labor quality improvement, agricultural technology upgrade and agricultural organizations such as enterprise will guide the modernization of agriculture. In the labor selective transfer background, agricultural development policy should shift from the material capital and technology growth to the improvement of the quality of labors and rural labor transfer system environment construction.更多还原