贵州省经济增长过程中的就业问题研究

【作者】 于庆华；

【导师】 樊胜岳；

【作者基本信息】 中央民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 贵州省是一个拥有54个民族的西部省份,在经济增长的过程中解决就业和再就业问题具有尤为重要的意义,它关系改革发展的大局,关系到民族团结和社会和谐稳定,关系各族人民群众的切身利益,关系全面建设小康社会宏伟目标的实现。群众的利益是具体的,就业是民生之本。本文从分析贵州省经济增长与就业现状着手。2011年,贵州省地区生产总值5600亿元,同比增长15%。随着贵州省经济的不断增长,贵州的就业人数也随之不断提高。贵州省已经基本建立市场导向的就业机制,但同时也应该看到在当前和今后相当长的时期中,贵州就业形势依然严峻。就业问题并未随着经济增长而消失殆尽,劳动者充分就业的需求和劳动力总量供给之间的矛盾仍较为突出。针对贵州省经济增长过程中的就业问题,本文从以下四个方面入手进行了研究：首先,考虑准确数据的可得到性,本文采用1990年一2009年间的相关数据,对贵州经济增长与就业关系进行协整分析,结果表明经济增长和就业之间存在着长期均衡关系。进一步检验两者之间的因果关系,Granger因果检验结果表明,在10%的显著性水平,经济增长和就业之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系,即经济增长是引起就业增加的格兰杰因,经济增长带来了就业的增长；但就业增长并不是经济增长的格兰杰因,就业的增加并没有促进经济增长。其次,对贵州省经济增长率与失业率的变化轨迹进行分析,结果表明,在贵州省经济以远高于2.25%的速度持续增长时,贵州省的失业率不但没有按照“奥肯定律”所讲“经济增长率每增加1个百分点,失业率就会下降0.25个百分点"的那样下降,反而还在持续上升。“奥肯定律”在贵州出现了变异,甚至是反方向的趋势,所以贵州省经济增长过程中存在着“奥肯定律”悖论。再次,根据贵州省1998—2009年间的数据进行检验,所得结果表明,就业人数L与技术进步指标R&D经费投入不存在同阶单整,L-I(2),而R&D～工(1)。这说明两者之间不存在协整关系。由此看来,技术进步对贵州就业的增长并不存在显著影响。最后,提出促进贵州省就业增长的对策。在借鉴发达国家产业结构调整经验的基础上,结合贵州省现实,合理布局三大产业,推动产业信息化、集群化发展,推进科技创新,提升产业竞争力,加强对灵活就业的引导,建立健全相关政策法规,完善相关服务体系。大力支持非公有制经济的健康发展,用较快的经济增长速度确保向劳动力提供充足的就业机会。本文的主要的贡献及可能的创新之处在于：(1)本文从贵州省的角度探讨经济增长与就业的关系、就业弹性的演进以及如何在经济增长的过程中促进就业,扩大经济增长对劳动就业的带动效应,涉及到西部省份。(2)通过本文对贵州省经济增长与就业之间的关系的分析,表明在GDP与就业人数之间存在较强的正相关关系,在GDP增长率与就业人数增长率之间存在微弱的负相关关系。(3)通过对相关数据的分析,在较长的时期内,贵州省的技术进步对就业总量并不存在显著影响。(4)本文在合理借鉴国外经验的基础上,结合贵州省资源特色,较为全面地构建了经济就业协调发展的对策体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Guizhou Province has54ethnic groups, which is located in Western China. There is particularly important significance to solve the problems of employment and reemployment in the process o economic growth in Guizhou province. It relates the overall situation of reform, national unitity and social harmony and stability, the vital interests of all nationalities, and the magnificent goal of building a moderaterly prosperous society. As we all know, the interests of people is specific, while employment is the basic thing.This paper proceeds with the analysis of economic growth and employment status in Guizhou province. In2011, the GDP of Guizhou province reached560billion Yuan, increasing15%compared to last year. With the economic growing in Guizhou province, the amount of employment also continued to increase. Guizhou province has been basically established a market-oriented employment mechanism, however, it should be noticed that Guizhou employment situation remains severe in the present and for quite a long period of time, as well as the prominent contradiction between the full employment demand and supply of the total workforce.This paper studied from the following five aspects:Firstly, this paper uses the data between the years1990and2009, which considers the accurate data available, to analyze the relation between GuiZhou’s economic growth and employment. The cointegration analysis results show that there is long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and employment. Granger causality test results show that the existence of one-way Granger causality at the10%significance level. It means economic growth increased employment and is Granger of employment increase, while employment growth does not promote economic growth and is not economic growth Granger.Secondly, to analyze the trajectory of economic growth rate and unemployment rate of Guizhou province. It shows that umemployment growth rate of Guizhou province is continuing to rise when the economy sustains growing at the much higher rate of2.25%. In other words, Guizhou province’s unemployment rate did not follow the "Okun’s Law", even was in the opposite direction of the trend, which said "the economic growth rate for each additional1%, the unemployment rate will decline by0.25%". Therefore, there is the paradox of "Okun’s Law" in the process of economic growth in Guizhou province.Thirdly, the results obtained by testing data of1998to2009of Guizhou province, show that there is no the same order of integration between employment (L) and technology progress indicatiors (R&D). This means the cointegration exists between the two. In view of this, technological progress has no significant impact on employment growth in Guizhou province.Finally, this paper proposes the countermeasures for promoting employment growth in Guizhou province. On the basis of learning from the experience of industrial restructuring in developed countries and combaining with the reality of Guizhou province, it ensures the provision of adequate employment opportunities to the labor through the rational distribution of the three major industries, promoting the development of industry informaionzation and cluster, promoting technological innovation, enhacing industrial empetitiveness, strengthening the guidance of flexible employment, establishing related polocies and reagulations, improving the relevant service system, and supporting strongly for the healthy development of the non-public ecomomy.The main contribution and innovations of this paper:(1) This paper explored the relationship between economic growth and employment from the prospective of Guizhou province, relating to western provinces, to expand economic growth ondriving effect of the employment.(2) There is a strong positive correlation between GDP and employment and there is a weak negative relation between GDP growth rate and employment growth rate, through the analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in Guizhou province.(3) It has no significant effect on total employment for the technological advances in Guizhou provice.(4) This paper built a comprehensive and coordinated development of countermeasures system for economic and employment on the basis of foreign experiences and the resource characteristics of Guizhou province.更多还原