【作者】 刘升平；

【导师】 诸叶平；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 作物信息科学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本项研究以多年的省级和县域农业经济数据积累为数据基础，综合应用GIS技术、数据库技术、农业自然灾害处理与分析方法、区域经济分析方法和计算机建模技术，开展农业自然灾害区域影响分析。研究针对目前农业经济统计信息中智能工具缺乏、信息展示不直观、灾害事件处理不精准等问题，开展了基于GIS的农业区域影响信息分析理论研究，构建了分析报告自动生成工具；针对我国日益频发的农业自然灾害和农业突发事件，选取旱灾、涝灾、台风等主要自然灾害为研究对象，开展农业常态灾害专题分析、灾害事件快速响应、农业自然灾害区域影响分析方法研究；针对农业部市场司的实际需求，基于农业经济数据库，构建了农业自然灾害区域影响分析辅助决策系统。本项工作的主要研究工作和创新点如下：（1）开展了农业区域经济影响分析方法的研究，综合应用GIS技术和空间统计分析方法，将区域农业产业划分为四种不同类型的聚集分布开展区域农业经济影响分析。研发自定义专题图模块，实现任意区域经济影响指标的专题图自动生成，提高区域农业经济影响结果的直观展示能力。（2）分析了我国农业灾害事件的特点和类型，提出了农业灾害事件管理框架和农业突发事件快速分析方法，实现了农业应急事件科学化、定量化预估分析。（3）开展了农业自然灾害区域影响分析方法研究，选取危害农业程度高、较为常见和发生频率高的农业自然灾害进行深入研究，根据区域灾害条件背景、灾害特征、相关作物生产情况，构建了农业自然灾害分析预测模型和农业自然灾害区域影响分析模型，提出了农业自然灾害区域影响分析方法，并以吉林省农业自然灾害例进行应用分析研究。（4）提出了一种具有较好的通用性、实用性、扩展性和人机界面的分析报告自动生成方法，并集成数据动态分析技术和专题定制技术，研建了具有多种灾害分析报告生成、灾害动态数据分析和区域经济影响分析的自动分析报告生成工具，实现了全国不同地区、不同农业经济指标、不同自然灾害和突发事件的分析报告自动生成。（5）设计并构建了农业自然灾害区域影响分析辅助决策系统，实现了自然灾害时空信息快速处理与分析、农业自然灾害与应急事件专题分析、农业自然灾害市场价格影响分析和农业自然灾害区域影响分析等功能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on several years of provincial and country agricultural economic data, this paper providescomprehensive application of GIS, data base, regional economic analysis method, computer modelingas well as agricultural disaster treatment and analysis method to carry out research on regional impactand analysis of agricultural nature disaster. In this research we studied GIS-based agricultural regionalimpact analysis theory, developed an automatic generating tool of analysis report. In view of frequentlynature disaster and agricultural emergency, we choosed drought, floods, typhoon and other naturedisaster as study objects, and proposed disaster project analysis method and fast disaster responsemethod. At the same time, we developed a decision support system for work needs of ministry ofagriculture. In this paper, results are follows:(1) This paper proposed method of agricultural regional economic impact analysis. GIS technology andspatial statistical analysis method was used for dividing agricultural industry regions into four typesas well as focusing on space gather characteristics of distribution patterns. Custom thematic mapmodule was developed for thematic map automatic generation for any regional economic impactindex, which enhanced visual display capability of agricultural economic impact result.(2) This study analyzed characteristics and types of agricultural nature disasters, proposed an agriculturaldisaster management framework and a rapid analysis method.(3) Proposing regional impact analysis of agricultural nature disaster. This paper provided thoroughresearch to some nature disasters which had high agricultural hazard and frequency of occurrence.According to regional disaster background, disaster features and crop production status, agriculturaldisaster analysis and forecast model as well as agricultural disaster regional impact analysis modelwere developed. In case of Jilin province disaster, the method and models were used for analyzingcrop disaster effect.(4) Proposing the method of automatically generating analysis report. Based on the method this paperdeveloped a tool of automatically generating analysis report, which can automatically generatedifferent disaster analysis report, dynamic data analysis results and regional economic impactanalysis. The tool of automatically generating analysis report has good versatility, practicalapplicability, high augment ability and friendly human machine interface. Different regions,agricultural economic indexes, nature disasters and emergencies are used for automaticallygenerating analysis report.(5) Designing and developing decision support system of agricultural nature disaster regional impactanalysis. The DSS realized rapid agricultural spatial-temporal information processing and analysis,agricultural nature disaster and emergency subject analysis, market price impact analysis and regionalimpact analysis of agricultural nature disaster.更多还原