【作者】 刘启正；

【导师】 孙东升；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 作为现代新经济的一种重要形态，会展活动以其独特的平台产品属性、显著的外部性和广泛的产业关联性而备受关注。农业会展是会展经济与现代农业结合的产物，是以农业企业和消费者为特定服务对象的会展活动。农业会展在提升我国农业市场化、产业化和国际化水平，促进农产品贸易和农村经济发展，增强农业企业国际竞争力等方面都发挥着巨大的作用。2002年以来，我国会展经济以年均15-20%的速度成长，使我国迅速成为世界会展经济的核心区域之一。与此同时，我国农业经济和农产品贸易也增长迅速。农业会展在会展经济和农业经济发展的双重刺激下，经历了一轮爆发式增长，2004-2009年我国中等规模以上农业会展数量增长了近两倍。在取得迅速发展的过程中，农业会展行业也呈现出片面追求规模扩张，重复办展，无序竞争等问题，很多会展项目绩效低徊，严重影响了其自身发展和经济社会功能的发挥。加强农业会展行业管理，规范主体办展行为，提升总体绩效水平已成为一项紧迫的任务。本文从农业会展行业发展现状入手，分别以用户视角和第三方视角探索了建立农业会展绩效评价体系的可行性，并针对影响我国农业会展绩效提升的主要问题提出了对策。通过对大量第一手资料的整理，本文系统分析了我国农业会展的类型、时间分布、地域分布、规模和价格等基本情况，归纳出当前我国农业会展行业发展的四大特征：数量增速放缓，规模持续增长，行业总体进入竞争整合期；会展数量和质量上都存在着较突出的结构性问题；市场化和专业化程度有所提高，但政府和协会仍是主导力量；不同地区间农业会展综合发展程度存在较大差异。其中，在探索不同地区农业会展活跃程度与农业经济、农产品贸易和会展经济发展水平的关系上，本文通过一个多元线性回归模型揭示了农业会展举办次数与区域农产品出口额、农业总产值之间的关系。通过对8个典型农业会展的用户调查，本文阐述了基于用户视角的会展绩效评价指标体系可能存在三大问题：参展商和观众用户评价不一致；不同会展间用户评价差异不显著；用户分维度评价综合分析结果与总体评价直测结果不一致。由此提出用户视角只能作为单个会展改善绩效的分析工具而不宜作为行业内多个项目绩效对比方法的结论。同时，本文还对会展活动中用户评价与其影响和被影响因素之间的关系进行了探索性分析。基于主成分分析（PCA）和网络分析（ANP）两种方法，本文重点对基于第三方视角的会展绩效评价指标体系进行了探讨。在研究中，系统分析了展览总面积、净面积、特装比例、标展价格、特展价格、展台收入、展商数、国际展商比、外省展商比、观众数、国际观众比、外省观众比、届数等13项主要指标变量及政府投入比例等6项次要指标变量的相关关系，由此提出层次分析法（AHP）不宜作为绩效评价指标赋权方法的结论。在主成分分析和网络分析两种方法的比较应用中，通过规模、档次、吸引力三个主成分的提取和展示性、交易性、可持续性三条准则的设定，分别构建了两个各含11项指标的绩效评价体系，并结合42个会展的实际数据进行了打分排序和对比分析，同时解释了这两种方法各自的优缺点和适用范围。在以上工作的基础上，本文提出了我国农业会展规范发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a new economic pattern with specific platform-attribute, remarkable externality and broadindustrial relevance, exhibitions, trade shows and conventions become a phenomenon gainingincreasing attention. Agricultural exhibitions are the crossover outcome of exhibition economy andmodern agriculture. It comes out of exhibition industry and serves agricultural companies andconsumers, playing a significant role in promoting the process of marketization, industrialization andinternationalization of China’s agriculture, boosting agricultural trade and rural economy developmentand enhancing the competitiveness of agricultural enterprises.Since2002, the exhibition and convention industry of China grows at a speed of15%to20%annually, making China an emerging center of international exhibitions. The success of Olympic Gamesand World Expo had pushed this process to peak and set a new starting line. Stimulated by this, China’sagri-exhibition industry experiences a booming period. From2004to2009, the amount of agriculturalexhibitions increases up to200%. At the same time, the problem of copy exhibition and resourcewasting becomes severe and impacts the development of the whole industry by reducing the efficiencyof exhibition projects. This research is aimed to explore the possibility of establishing a performanceevaluation system of exhibitions and trade shows, and find way out for China’s agri-exhibition industry.Based on abundance firsthand data, this research analyses the type, time&area distribution, scalesand prices of China’s recent agri-exhibitions, concluding in four main characteristics of thedevelopment of agri-exhibition industry. By setting a multiple linear regression model with data ofamount of agri-exhibitions, agricultural trade value, total agricultural output value and gross availableexhibiting space in different provinces of China, this research illustrated the close relations betweenagri-exhibition and agricultural trade.Based on the questionnaire survey of8agri-exhibitions, this research finds that there are unfixeddifferences between the evaluation made by two-kind users of exhibitions, the exhibitors andparticipants. Difference also exists between the analytic results of multi-dimensional evaluation and themeasured results of overall evaluation on the same exhibition project. This research finds as well thatthe evaluation differences between different exhibition projects sometime have no statisticalsignificance, so it might not be a good approach to use users’ evaluation as criteria for the performanceevaluation of exhibitions.In this paper, the relevance between13main indicators such as gross exhibition space, netexhibition space, amount of exhibitors and6minor indicators such as public expenditure ratio, is testedand analysed. Then, two approaches including Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and AnalyticNetwork Process (ANP) are used separately to establish the performance evaluation model. With thePCA method, three components including scale, grade and attraction are abstracted. While under theANP framework, three criteria including exhibiting effect, trading effect and sustainability are adopted.Using data of42exhibitions, the performance evaluation results generating from the two approaches are compared.In the end, this paper proposes some suggestions for the further development of Chineseagri-exhibitions.更多还原