【作者】 沈银书；

【导师】 吴敬学；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业技术经济， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 规模养殖已成为我国养猪业的发展方向,目前正处于加快发展的关键时期。论文围绕生猪规模养殖的有关经济学问题展开研究,试图找出深层次影响因素,具有理论和现实意义。论文在梳理国内外文献资料的基础上,应用规模经济、区域优势、生产率等相关理论,以国家和行业公布的数据为研究资料,利用区域比较优势指数、生猪单位增重成本收益、基于DEA的Manquist指数等方法,研究了2000年以来我国生猪规模养殖的发展趋势与发展动因、区域分布与区域优势特征,不同养殖规模生猪的成本收益与生产率变化特征及全要素生产率(TFP)的增长源泉,以及美国生猪规模养殖的发展趋势与发展经验等。论文提出的政策建议具有参考价值。论文主要在以下几方面开展了创新性研究：1.综合分析了我国生猪规模养殖的发展动因。结果表明,人口增长、经济社会发展、技术进步、粮食增产、市场竞争、政策扶持等多种因素推动了我国生猪规模养殖的快速发展。2.分析比较了我国不同规模养殖生猪的区域分布与不同区域生猪生产的比较优势。结果发现,我国生猪规模养殖有从东部向中西部和东北地区转移的趋势,但生猪生产的优势区域仍主要分布于东南沿海地区、长江中下游地区以及西南地区等水稻生产优势区,而华北的小麦、玉米生产优势区以及东北的玉米生产优势区并未成为生猪生产优势区域,表明有必要采取更加积极的扶持政策措施加快生猪规模养殖向华北和东北地区转移。3.揭示了我国生猪养殖规模大小与成本效益的关系。应用生猪单位增重的总成本与净利润指标,更加准确地分析比较了我国不同养殖规模生猪的成本效益变化特征。结果显示,随猪场规模扩大,生猪养殖成本呈现“U”型变化,而养殖效益则呈现“倒U”型变化,中小规模具有一定的成本效益优势,而大规模养殖并不呈现规模经济,表明我国养猪业应坚持“适度规模”发展原则,不应过度追求规模数量的扩大,同时亟需提高规模养殖的技术管理水平。4.探讨了不同规模养殖生猪的TFP增长率与增长源泉。运用基于DEA的Manquist指数法对我国不同养殖规模的TFP增长率及其技术进步与技术效率变化率的时空变化进行分析比较。结果显示,不同规模养殖生猪的TFP都呈正向增长(年均0.7%-1.8%),但增长源泉不同,其中散养主要源于技术进步,中小规模养殖主要源于技术效率改善,而大规模养殖主要源于技术进步和技术效率改善的共同作用,表明今后除需继续加强大规模养殖的技术研发与推广力度外,还要侧重加强生猪散养的技术推广以及中小规模养殖的技术研发。本文在上述分析基础上,结合美国生猪规模养殖的发展历程与启示,提出了促进我国生猪规模养殖的政策建议：充分发挥不同养殖规模的优势,构建合理的生猪养殖规模结构；加大科技创新与应用力度,不断提升生猪生产水平；创新生产组织形式,加快生猪产业化进程；有序推动生猪规模养殖区域移动,促进生猪规模养殖合理布局；提高猪场粪污的治理能力,促进生猪规模养殖可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the transformation of China’s pig industry from traditional scattered-raising to modern scale-breeding, it is becoming more and more important to improve production level and efficiency of pig scale-breeding, promote its rational distribution, effectively alleviate its pressure on resources and environment, and achieve sustained and stable development of the pig industry. Basing on the related theories on economy of scale, regional advantages, cost-benefit and productivity, this dissertation uses official statistics data from2000to2010, and methods of comparative analysis, index analysis, and econometric analysis to study present situation, regional distribution and regional advantage, cost-benefit, and productivity of pig scale-breeding in China.The results of this study show that:(1) Rapid development of pig scale-breeding in China is attributed to population growth and economic and social development, technological progress, grain production, market competition, and policy support.(2) There is a trend that pig scale-breeding shifts from eastern region to mid-western and northeastern regions. However, the dominant areas of pig production is mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest areas, where are abound in rice, while the wheat and corn planting areas in the North China, and maize planting areas in Northeast are not dominant pig producing areas. Therefore, more policies should be taken to accelerate pig scale-breeding shift to the North and Northeast of China.(3) With the expansion of pig farm scale, the cost of pig raising shows "U" type, while its benefit presents "inverted U" type. It indicates that small-and medium-scale breeding have cost-effective, but large-scale breeding does not show the economies of scale,. During a longer period in the future, China’s pig industry should insist on "moderate scale" development principles, and should not excessively increase size of pig operation. Meanwhile, it is critical to raise level of the technical management of pig scale-breeding.(4) Total factor productivity (TFP) of different scales of pig breeding shows shown positive growth (TFPch0.7%-1.8%), but there are significant differences in average annual growth rate and sources of growth. The scattered-raising is mainly due to advances in technology, small-and middle-scale breeding mainly due to improvement of technical efficiency, and large-scale breedng is mainly due to the combination of technological progress and technical efficiency improvement. Therefore, it is important to continue to strengthen technological research and application of large-scale pig breeding, and we also should enhance technological application of scattered-raising and research of small-and medium-scale pig breeding in the future. Based on the above analysis, and learned from the development process of pig scale-breeding in the United States, policy suggestions to promote pig scale-breeding in China have been put forward as follows:(1) make full use of advantages of different raising patterns, and build a reasonable pig breeding scale structure;(2) increase scientific and technological innovation and application, and constantly incease the production level of pig industry;(3) innovate forms of production organization, and speed up process of pig industrialization;(4) orderly drive regional shifts, and promote rational distribution of pig scale-breeding;(5) enhance waste management of pig operations, and promote sustainable development of pig scale-breeding.更多还原