【作者】 陈洪富；

【导师】 孙柏涛；

【作者基本信息】 中国地震局工程力学研究所 ， 结构工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 过去三十多年里，我国在震害预测、地震应急指挥、地震现场工作和灾后恢复重建等领域取得了丰硕的研究成果，完成了三十余个城市和大型企业的震害预测工作并建立了相应的信息管理与辅助决策系统，构建了较为完善的地震现场工作标准体系，基本建成了覆盖中国大陆的全国一体化的地震应急指挥技术系统网络，在应对汶川和玉树两次重特大地震的应急救援行动中发挥了积极作用，为国务院和各级政府防震减灾规划和地震应急指挥决策提供了重要依据和有力的技术支撑。然而，目前的国内研究仍存在以下问题：各类震害防御和应急指挥系统琳琅满目，系统重复建设造成资源浪费和闲置，维护更新困难；系统软/硬件建设投资费用大，部分用户无力承担；部分信息系统的结果展示和辅助决策效果不佳，许多已建成系统被束之高阁没有发挥应有的作用；大多数信息系统都是基于C/S模式开发，服务范围小；多局限于某城市的具体信息系统的研发和功能实现，技术没有得到统一，缺乏统一的系统平台。实际上，尽管这些技术系统操作界面和管理形式不同，但在基础数据、评估模型等方面都是相通的、类似的，不应人为地割裂开来。针对以上问题和不足，考虑我国防震减灾实际需求并充分吸收国内外最新成果，本文提出：基于WebGIS平台，集成震害预测、地震应急指挥、地震现场损失评估、房屋安全鉴定、灾后科学考察和恢复重建等业务功能，建立一个统一的HAZ-China（HAZards China）地震灾害损失评估系统，通过Internet为不同用户提供震前、震时、震后的综合地震信息服务。本文较全面的分析和研究了该系统建设中的关键技术问题，主要工作和取得的成果如下：（一）、分析了地震业务需求和系统需求，提出了系统的总体功能和架构设计思路，确定了系统的体系结构、开发技术、GIS平台、数据库软件和集成技术等。（二）、充分吸收《GB/T19428-201X地震灾害预测及其信息管理系统技术规范》（征求意见稿）的最新技术思路和方法，确定了震害预测技术服务系统的基本功能和工作分级原则；总结了全国和各省市范围地震动衰减关系，给出了地震动影响场的不同绘制方式和动态修改方法，提出了地震动影响场模块的功能设计思路；以地震动影响场模块为例，详细介绍了本系统所提出的地震模型模块化的实现流程，包括模型公式统一规范化、计算处理逻辑、接口设计等；提出了建筑物震害预测模块的功能设计思路，总结了不同工作级别的各类建筑物的调查方式、抽样率、易损性分析方法和结果展示方式，并建议了优先采用的单体和群体建筑物易损性分析方法；初步介绍了生命线工程震害预测模块的功能设计思路；提出了建筑物和生命线工程地震灾害经济损失估计模块的功能设计思路；梳理了国内外39类地震人员伤亡评估方法，并建议了4种优先采用的方法，提出了地震人员伤亡估计模块的功能设计思路；初步介绍了地震地质灾害评价模块、次生灾害分析模块、防震减灾对策建议模块的功能设计思路。（三）、阐述了地震应急信息服务系统的的总体功能结构、业务流程和数据流程，并以震害评估模型设计为例描述了UML在系统中的建模方式；定义了多种地震触发方式，介绍了地震触发模块的基本功能和流程设计；梳理了快速预评估各类功能点，介绍了快速预评估与动态跟踪模块的基本功能设计；梳理了各类地震应急辅助决策功能点和应急信息分类，介绍了地震应急辅助决策模块的基本功能和流程设计；初步介绍了地震灾情上报模块、地震现场灾害直接损失评估模块和地震现场建筑物安全鉴定模块的基本功能；总结了36类地震计算模型，并将其划分为震害评估模型、辅助决策模型和路径分析模型三大类，分别简述了其基本功能。（四）、初步介绍了恢复重建信息服务系统、综合信息管理系统、信息发布系统、模型管理系统、用户和权限管理等其他系统的基本功能设计，并分别给出了程序开发用例图。（五）、提出了多精度多尺度的数据库建设思路：以已有数据成果收集为主，辅以遥感影像提取和人口统计数据推演等新方法，并补充典型地区现场调查数据；根据数据用途和精度不同，系统数据库分为三个层次：详实型数据、欠详实数据和普适型数据，分别描述了各层次数据库的数据来源、数据内容、数据分类、数据存储格式等；定义了统一的数据结构规范；规定了空间数据处理要求；采用XML格式对系统各类参数和数据标准化处理；建立了数据库存储更新维护方案。（六）、实现了系统包括硬件部署、软件平台选择、数据库、开发框架、计算流程等内容的设计与集成；给出了界面原型设计方法，通过程序开发实现了系统首页界面、地震动影响场、建筑物震害预测等展示界面；初步实现了设定地震下的地震影响场绘制、建筑物震害预测、生命线工程震害预测、经济损失评估和人员伤亡评估的计算流程；实现了多种维度的评估结果查询与统计、文档和专题图的展示功能。（七）、首次提出了基于云计算的HAZ-China地震灾害损失评估系统的初步设想，给出了总体框架和基本功能；详细阐述了云计算的4个服务层次的基本功能，包括地震应用服务层、地震业务开发平台服务层、地震数据服务层和基础设施服务层；建立了系统的体系结构；最后指出了近期首要任务是实现地震应用服务层的功能。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past three decades, China has made great achievements in fields ofearthquake damage prediction, earthquake emergency rescue, earthquake fieldwork, and post-earthquake rehabilitation. Earthquake damage prediction hasbeen carried out in more than30cities and large enterprises, andcorresponding information management and aid decision making systemshave been built. Relatively complete standard system of earthquake field workhas been constructed. An integrative national technical system network ofearthquake emergency command which covers China’s mainland has beenbasically constructed, which plays an active role in emergency rescue workduring the great Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes. The system has alsoprovided important basis and powerful technical support on earthquakedamage mitigation planning and emergency command decision making for theState Council and governments at all levels.Yet there remain several problems in present domestic research work:1)There are various earthquake damage prevention and emergency commandsystems, and the repeated construction of these systems has caused resourcewaste and idleness, and difficulty on maintenance and updating.2) Thesoftware/hardware construction costs too much, which makes part of the usersunable to afford.3) The effects of result display and aid decision making ofpart of the information systems are not good, therefore, a lot of accomplishedsystems are left unused and their functions are laid aside and neglected.4)Most of the information systems are developed based on the C/S mode, whichleads to smaller scope of services.5) Most of the information systems arerestricted to development and function implementation of specific informationsystem of a certain city. The technology is not unified, and there is lack of auniform system platform. In fact, although the operation interfaces andmanagement forms of these technical systems are different, the basic data andassessment models are similar and interlinked, and should not be separatedartificially.Aim at the above problems, taking the actual demand of Chinaearthquake disaster mitigation into consideration, and fully absorb the newestachievements at home and abroad, this paper puts forward to build a unifiedHAZ-China (HAZards China) earthquake hazard loss estimation system basedon WebGIS platform. This system is set to integrate functions like earthquakedamage prediction, earthquake emergency command, earthquake field lossassessment, building safety appraisal, post-earthquake scientific investigation,and post-earthquake rehabilitation. The system would provide comprehensivepre-earthquake, co-earthquake and post-earthquake information services fordifferent users. This paper analyses and studies the key technical problems of the system relative comprehensively. The main work and achievements arelisted as follows:1. This paper analyses earthquake business requirements and systemrequirements, and proposes the idea of overall function and architecturedesign of the system. It also confirms the architecture, developmenttechnology, GIS platform, database software, and integration technology ofthe system.2. After fully absorbing the latest technology thought and method of‘Code for Earthquake Disaster Evaluation and Its Information ManagementSystem(Opinion Soliciting Draft)’(GB/T19428-201X), this paper gives outthe overall function orientation and the task grading principle of the technicalservice system of earthquake damage prediction. It summarizes thenationwide and provincial or city range attenuation relationships of groundmotion, giving out different drawing ways and dynamic modification methodsof earthquake influence field, putting forward the functional design thought ofearthquake influence filed module. Finally, the paper takes the earthquakeinfluence field module as an example, particularly introduces the realizationflow of earthquake model modularization which is proposed by the system.The realization flow consists of model and formula unified standardization,calculation processing logic, interface design, etc. The paper also proposes thefunctional design thought of earthquake damage prediction module forbuildings, summarizing the survey ways, sample rates, vulnerability analyticalmethods, and result display ways of various buildings at differentclassification grades, and suggests the prior adoptive vulnerability analyticalmethods for single building and building groups. The paper preliminarilyintroduces the functional design thought of earthquake damage predictionmodule for lifeline engineering, putting forward the functional design thoughtof earthquake hazard loss estimation module for lifeline engineering andbuildings, combing39earthquake casualty assessment methods at home andabroad and suggests4prior adoptive ones, proposes the functional designthought of earthquake casualty assessment module. The paper alsopreliminarily introduces the functional design thought of earthquakegeological disaster assessment module, secondary disaster analytical module,and earthquake damage mitigation countermeasure suggestion module.3. This paper expounds the overall functional structure, business process,and data flow of the earthquake emergency information service system, anddescribes the modeling way in the system of UML by taking earthquakedamage assessment pattern design as an example. It defines various triggermodes of earthquake, and introduces the basic function and process design ofearthquake trigger module. It combs different types of function points ofprompt pre-assessment, and introduces the basic functional design of promptpre-assessment and dynamic tracking module. It combs various functionpoints of earthquake emergency aid decision making and classification of emergency information, and introduces the basic function and process designof earthquake emergency aid decision making module. It preliminarilyintroduces the basic function of earthquake disaster situation reporting module,direct loss assessment on earthquake field module, and building safetyappraisal on earthquake field module. It summarizes36types of earthquakeassessment models, dividing them into three broad heading as earthquakedamage assessment module, aid decision making module, and path analysismodule, and respectively describes the basic function of these broad heading.4. The paper preliminarily presents the basic functional design ofrehabilitation information service system, comprehensive informationmanagement system, information publication system, model managementsystem, user and privilege management system, etc., and respectively givesout the use case diagrams for program development.5. The paper proposes the construction thought of multi-precision andmulti-scale database: mainly based on collection of the existing dataachievements, assisted by new methods like remote sensing image extractionand population statistics data deduction, supplemented by field investigationdata of typical districts. According to different data usages and precisions, thesystem database is divided into three layers: detailed data, less detailed data,and general data. The paper respectively describes the data sources, datacontents, data classification, and data storage formats of each database layer.The paper also defines the unified data structure standard, rules the specialdata processing requirements, adopts XML format to standardized processvarious parameters and data of system, builds the scheme for databasestoraging, updating and maintenance.6. Design and integration of system including contents such as hardwaredeployment, software platform selection, database, framework development,computing process have been accomplished. The prototype design method of interface was given out. The interfaces of home page, earthquake influence field, earthquake damage prediction, etc. have been built through program development. The computing processes of earthquake influence field drawing for setearthquakes, earthquake damage prediction for buildings, earthquake damageprediction for lifeline engineering, economic loss assessment, and casualty assessment have been initially realized. And functions such as query and statistic of assessment results with various dimensionalities, and display of documents and thematic maps have already been realized.7. The preliminary assumption of HAZ-China earthquake lossestimation system based on Cloud Computing platform is firstly put forwardin this paper, and the overall framework and basic function were given out.The paper expounds the basic function of4service layers of CloudComputing platform. The4layers are Earthquake Software-as-a-Service,Earthquake Platform-as-a-Service, Earthquake Data-as-a-Service, andEarthquake Infrastructure-as-a-Service. The architecture of the system has already been established. Finally, the paper indicates that the recent primarytask is the implementation of Earthquake Software-as-a-Service function.更多还原