【作者】 赵宇哲；

【导师】 武春友；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 水资源短缺、生态环境恶化等已成为制约我国全面建设小康社会的瓶颈和突出矛盾,解决矛盾的根本途径是建设节水型社会。节水型社会建设是一项制度建设,其本质特征是以水权、水市场理论为基础的水资源权属管理体系。本文从我国水资源权属管理体系运作的现实出发,考虑到水资源“量”与“质”不可分离的特殊性,对国家在流域水平上向区域的水权分配问题展开研究。在对水权、水权分配、水权分配模型相关研究的分析基础上,从多个角度论证水量与水环境容量统一分配的必要性与科学性,提出流域二维水权的定义,继而对流域二维水权分配进行了若干拓广性的模型研究,具体如下：(1)建立了流域二维水权未清晰界定与清晰界定情况下的水资源利用效率模型,并进行经济分析,旨在说明流域二维水权初始分配的必要性。模型结果表明：在流域二维水权清晰界定并且建立流域二维水权市场下,全流域的Nash均衡取水总量与排污总量将小于在流域二维水权未清晰界定下的Nash均衡取水总量与排污总量。这说明：流域二维水权的清晰界定有利于保护各主体的权益,达到保护水资源、减少水资源利用冲突的目的,从而缓解水量短缺与水环境恶化的趋势,实现流域的可持续发展。(2)建立了流域二维水权再分配两种主要机制——集中分配和市场分配的数学模型,对两种机制存在的问题进行科学剖析。结合集中分配和市场分配两种机制的优缺点,以两种机制相结合的分层混合分配机制作为流域二维水权进行再分配的机制,并建立分层混合分配机制的数学模型证明：通过流域二维水权的平衡价格系统的调节,分层混合分配机制不但能够实现集中分配带来的整体效益最大,克服集中分配中信息不真实的缺点,而且还能够反映市场分配下各主体自行独立的决策行为,提高水资源的利用效率。(3)建立了不同主体的需水量预测模型。根据不同主体的用水特征,建立适应其需水量变化的灰色预测模型,并通过算例进行验证。算例结果表明：基于函数变换改进振荡序列的GM(1,1)模型能够反映出各地区需水量序列所具有的波动性,并提高了数据拟合的精度；基于背景值与初值同时优化的GM(1,1)模型在拟合各部门需水量序列时,具有较高的精度。(4)建立了流域二维水权初始分配模型。模型中,对经济、社会、环境等目标函数进行了具体量化,并设置了水源的可供水量约束、输水系统的输水能力约束、需水量约束、污染物排放量约束、协调发展约束、变量非负约束等,在形式上较完整地反映了流域二维水权初始分配的原则与决策机制。结合流域二维水权初始分配模型多目标、多关联、非线性、可分离性的特点,运用大系统总体优化-混合遗传算法对模型进行求解。最后,通过建立碧流河流域2010年不同保证率下的流域二维水权初始分配模型,分析和验证了模型的有效性与可操作性。(5)建立了流域二维水权交易决策模型,运用二层规划方法对地区之间的流域二维水权交易进行了建模研究。模型以流域管理机构作为整体计划、控制、协调中心的上层决策主体,以各地区作为具有相对自主决策权的下层决策主体,在形式上能够体现流域二维水权再分配中的分层混合分配机制与二层决策机制。最后,通过算例对模型进行了验证。算例结果表明：该模型符合流域二维水权交易中的优化决策过程,能够有效地协调全流域的整体利益与各主体的局部利益,达到流域二维水权最优分配的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shortage of water resources and deterioration of water environment have became the main problems on building of a water-saving society, which is very important to construct a well-off society in an all-round way in China. To build a water-saving society is a system construction, which is a water rights management system based on the theories of water rights and water markets. Based on the operation of China’s water rights management system, considering water quantity and water quality cannot be separated, this dissertation focuses on the research of water rights allocation at the watershed scale from the state to the regions.Based on the analysis of the research on water rights, water rights allocation and water rights allocation models, a unified allocation of water and water environmental capacity has been proved to be necessary and scientific from many facts, the definition and the structure of the two-dimension watershed water rights are presented.Then some extension studies on the models of water rights allocation are carried out based on the two-dimension watershed water rights allocation as follows,(1) Water use efficiency models for two cases of the two-dimension watershed water rights are not defined clearly and are defined clearly are built respectively to demonstrate the necessity of water right initial allocation. The model results show that the total Nash equilibrium quantity of water usage and pollutants emission in the case of the two-dimension watershed water rights are defined clearly and water right market has been established, is less than which in the case of the two-dimension watershed water rights are not defined clearly.It also shows that the clear two-dimension watershed water rights are conducive to protect the interests of all water users, reduce the conflicts of water utilization between each water user. Therefore, the water quantity and quality crisis can be alleviated to achieve sustainable development.(2) The mathematical models for the two main mechanism-centralized mechanism and market mechanism of water rights reallocation are established respectively to analyze the problems existed in the two mechanisms.After weighing the advantages and disadvantages of the two main mechanisms, the layered-mixed mechanism with the combination of centralized mechanism and market mechanism is constructed as the mechanism of watershed water right reallocation. Then, the mathematical model for the layered-mixed mechanism shows that, based on the balance price system, the layered-mixed mechanism not only can maximize the overall benefits and address some shortcomings such as information is not accurate, but also can reflect the decision behavior of the individuals and improve the efficiency of water utilization.(3)Water demand forecasting models for different users are set up. According to the characteristics of water consumption, GM is applied to simulate and forecast different water demand data series.The results show that GM(1,1) of grey oscillation sequence based on the functional transformation can reflect the oscillation of a regional water demand effectively and improve the accuracy to simulate and forecast a regional water demand data series, and GM(1,1) model of integrated optimizing its background value and initial condition has a high precision to simulate and forecast a industrial water demand data series.(4) The two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation model is established. Firstly, the economics, society and environment objective functions are quantified. Secondly, some constraint conditions are set up, including water supply capacity, water carrying capacity, water demand, pollutants emission, coordinated development, non-negative variables and so on. Therefore, the model is a good example of the principles and the decision making mechanism of the two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation. Due to the multi-objective, multi-associated, nonlinear and separable characters, large scale systems optimization and hybrid genetic algorithms are used to solve the two-dimension watershed water rights initial allocation model. Finally, the application of the model and its algorithm are illustrated with the case of the two-dimension water rights initial allocation in Biliu river basin at different assurance rates in2010.(5) The two-dimension watershed water rights trading decision-making model is set up. In order to reflect the layered-mixed mechanism and the decision making mechanism of the two-dimension watershed water rights reallocation, supposing the watershed management agency is the upper decision-makers as the planning, controlling and coordinating center of a river basin, and each user is the lower decision-makers which has a relative autonomy,bi-level programming approach are applied to the two-dimension watershed water rights trading decision-making model between the regions.Finally, the application of the model is illustrated with a numerical calculation. The results show that the model not only can reflect the process of optimize decision in the two-dimension watershed water rights trading, but also can coordinate the relationship between the overall interests of watershed and the local interests of each user, so as to achieve the optimal allocation of the two-dimension watershed water rights.更多还原