【作者】 程嘉；

【导师】 杜文；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 城市群是区域经济一体化的主要载体,随着城市化的发展进程不断加快,城市群越来越代表着历史的进步和人类对更美好生活的无限向往,城市群发展研究是我国区域经济理论体系的重要内容和组成部分,目前已经成为区域经济研究的热点。交通是城市群形成的先决条件之一,也是各个城市之间相互交流的最主要方式。城市的发展和城市群的形成都离不开发达的交通运输业；良好的交通规划能引导城市群体的有序发展；城市和城市群的高度发展能够更多积累资金,进一步扩大交通基础设施的建设。因而,城市群的形成和交通系统的发展相互作用,如果可以科学加以研究和规划实施,就会形成良性的循环作用。论文主要进行了如下研究：第1章绪论。主要阐述了论文选题的背景及研究意义,分析了有关本论文研究内容的国内外现状,并明确指出了论文的研究目标、内容、方法和技术路线。第2章城市群发展相关理论与中国城市群。对城市群的基本概念、演化规律以及城市群发展相关理论进行了简要介绍。随后,文章对我国城市群及其交通系统的发展历程做了简要描述,总结了其发展特点以及未来发展趋势,奠定了本文的研究基调。第3章城市群交通系统协调发展分析。根据前文系统发展的相关理论,对城市群交通系统协调发展的概念进行了重新定义,对协调发展内容及协调发展影响因素进行了比较全面的分析,是全文的重点内容和研究基础。第4章从城市空间结构发展的角度对城市群交通系统协调发展进行了研究,引入了社会——物理空间模型、个体连接的概率模型,并运用先验手段、分层贝叶斯等方法对模型及其参数进行选择,最终进行了两类有代表性城市空间结构的结合多智能体的元胞自动机仿真并得到一定的研究结论。第5章城市群交通系统协调性测度。详细介绍了城市群交通系统协调发展定量测度分析的思路和方法。论文系统地探讨了城市群交通系统协调发展测度指标体系的构建思路、原则和特征,分析了综合评价指标体系的筛选原则,并利用德尔菲结合模糊数学以及因子选择的方法,建立了面向协调发展的系统综合测度指标体系。随后论文以改进的数据包络分析方法为核心系统地分析了综合测度系统协同发展综合有效性、技术有效性和规模有效性的数学模型和判断定理,解析了城市交通系统协同发展的综合效度、协同效度、发展效度的计算模型和理论,论证了城市交通系统协同发展的有效性判断流程与调整方向。并以成渝城市群为实例进行了实证分析和研究。论文结论为进一步研究城市群交通系统发展做好了理论与方法上的准备,对于我国城市群交通规划与管理工作具有一定实际指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The urban agglomeration is the main carrier of regional economic integration. With the development process of urbanization accelerating, increasing urban population represents the history of human progress and the infinite yearning for a better life. So the research of urban agglomeration developing is an important and integral part of China’s regional economy group of regional economic theory system, which has become a hot research point.Traffic is a prerequisite for the formation of urban agglomeration, and it is one of the most important communication manners between the cities. An well-developed traffic system could give great rise to the urban development and agglomeration forming. Besides, good traffic planning could make the agglomerations developing orderly. On the other hand, highly developed urban agglomerations could accumulate funds to further transport infrastructure construction expanding.This thesis mainly contained researches as following:Chapter1is introduction. The background of the research topics and significance were described. And the research statuses in quo both of domestic and aboard were analyzed. Then, the research objectives, content, methods and technical route were introduced.Chapter2is named theory of urban agglomeration development and the Chinese urban agglomerations. Firstly, the basic concepts, evolution rules and development theories were introduced; whereafter, a brief description of the history of Chinese urban agglomerations and the traffic was made. Then the developing characteristics and future trends were concluded.Chapter3is named analyzing of coordinated development of urban transportation system. The concept of coordinated development of urban transportation system was re-defined based on above-mentioned theories and, the content and influence factors of coordinated development were analyzed.Chapter4is Spatial structure of urban development from the perspective of the coordinated development of urban transport systems group conducted a study into the community-physical space model, probabilistic model of individual connections, and the use of a priori methods, hierarchical Bayesian models and other methods of parameter selection, and ultimately for the two types of urban spatial structure of a representative combination of multi-agent simulation of cellular automata and certain conclusions of the study.Chapter5is the measurement of transportation system coordination degrees. Quantitative measurement methods of urban agglomeration traffic system were introduced in particular. Firstly, an indicator system of system developing level measurement was formed by reasonable methods, then the measurement methods of data envelopment analyzing and complex networks were inducted.The concludes of this paper were made an arrangement for further researches for the development of urban agglomeration transportation system, and could contain a certain practical significance of guidance for China’s urban transport planning and management更多还原