【作者】 王喆；

【导师】 彭其渊；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 铁路危险货物运输的开展需要铁路车辆、办理站、专用线(专用铁路)、安全设施设备、通达的运输通道、稳定的货源、高效的运输组织及完善的信息管理系统等一系列硬件和软件作支撑。其中,铁路危险货物办理站点作为基础设施之一,其选址布局、建设规模及配制的合理性对于保障危险货物运输需求、降低环境风险以及提高铁路危险货物运输效率有着至关重要的影响。所以无论从运输效率的角度还是环境风险控制的角度出发,铁路危险货物办理站点的整合与优化布局都具有很强的紧迫性和必要性,是铁路部门迫切需要研究和解决的问题。我国危险货物运输事故在整个货运事故中已占相当比例,并呈逐年上升势头,对人民群众生命则产构成严重威胁,造成很大的经济损失和很坏的社会影响。因此,加强对危险货物运输安全管理具有重要意义。然而国内对于铁路危险货物运输安全管理的研究局限于战略层面,缺乏技术性、系统性的研究。以信息化监控技术创新为契机,铁路危险货物运输信息化建设方兴未艾,但相应的理论指导和成功建设方案介绍却十分缺乏,因此相关理论研究和系统建设方案研究十分必要。本文的研究内容主要包括以下几个方面：(1)首先结合我国的实际情况,在深入分析铁路危险货物办理站点对铁路危险货物运输的规模经济、范围经济和环境风险的基础上,为进一步提高铁路危险货物运输能力、运输效率,降低环境风险,必然要求合理配置铁路危险货物运输资源,加快铁路危险货物办理站点的整合；其次在总结国内外铁路危险货物运输相关研究的基础上对比了国内外主要研究方向和进展,当前铁路危险货物运输生产力布局调整、优化相关理论研究不足,缺乏布局规划理论方法体系的构建,采用的研究方法单一,缺乏用现代数学方法研究这一复杂问题,并对国内外选址问题研究和我国铁路危险货物运输信息、化建设情况进行了综述。(2)从系统整体的角度分析了铁路危险货物运输系统的构成及各系统之间的关系,运用系统动力学的研究方法,分析了铁路危险货物运输系统与其主要外部影响因素之间的关系,研究了铁路危险货物运输与社会经济、其他运输方式、科技进步、环境(安全)和供给-需求之间的因果反馈环,并在此基础上有针对性地对铁路危险货物运输当前存在的主要问题提出了相应的对策和建议。(3)为了分析铁路危险货物办理站点的布局现状,从危险货物运输供需适应性的角度,建立了铁路危险货物办理站点辐射力评价模型,并采用基于GIS的铁路危险货物运输生产力布局模糊聚类分析方法,对四川省境内铁路危险货物办理站点布局进行了分析。同时为研究铁路危险货物办理站合理的危险货物办理职能分工,构建了基于需求/服务模式的铁路危险货物办理站复杂适应性系统模型(RDGS-RSCAS),利用计算机仿真的方法对铁路危险货物办理站危险货物办理职能分工和等级体系的形成进行了研究。(4)研究铁路危险货物办理站的危险性评价体系,将集对分析理论用于铁路危险货物办理站的危险性评价,为其危险性评价工作提供一条新途径。将区域环境风险定量评价理论引入铁路危险货物办理站点,在对铁路危险货物办理站点固有环境风险性计算的基础上,通过建立铁路危险货物办理站点区域环境风险场模型,结合算例评估了铁路危险货物办理站点对于周边区域系统的环境风险影响。(5)研究了综合多准则决策的铁路危险货物办理站点整合优化的多目标选址-分派方法。该方法首先通过铁路部门综合考虑现有铁路危险货物办理站点的各方面条件,进行多准则决策评价,剔除需要优化配置的铁路危险货物办理站点,在这些办理站点托运的危险货物运量需要转移到保留站点；之后,进行危险货物运输需求调查,在运输需求者选择铁路危险货物办理站点的综合效用评价和铁路危险货物办理站点环境风险评价的基础上,基于最大覆盖选址模型和“部分覆盖”思想,建立了铁路危险货物办理站点的多目标选址-分派模型,并针对该模型设计了组合遗传算法和双层模拟退火算法求解。(6)研究了控制论这一铁路危险货物运输安全监控信息化建设的主要指导理论,分析了我国铁路危险货物运输安全监控信息化建设的必要性和可行性,对基于铁路危险货物运输源头——铁路危险货物办理站点当前正在开发、应用和实施的各级铁路危险货物运输安全监控信息系统建设方案进行了研究。最后,总结了全文的研究工作及研究结果,提出了论文的若干创新点并提出了一些未来需要深入研究的工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 To perform railway dangerous goods transport successfully, special car, stations, sidings(enterprise railway), safety facilities and devices, unblocked transportation corridors, stable amount of goods, efficient transportation organization, perfect information management systems are needed. As one of the railway dangerous goods transportation basic infrastructure, the location selection, construction scale and functional division reasonability of railway dangerous goods stations and sidings are important to improve the railway dangerous goods transport efficiency, satisfy transportation requirements and control environmental risk.So the railway dangerous goods stations and sidings integration and location optimization play a important role not only in the railway dangerous goods transport efficiency but in environmental risk control, this is a urgent issue which is worthy of studying. Among the whole railway goods transport accidents, railway dangerous goods transport accidents account for quite proportion, it affects on economic loss and social influence greatly. So it is important to strengthen railway dangerous goods transportation safety management, however, the research on railway dangerous goods transportation safety management literature limits strategies, lacks technology and system research. Railway dangerous goods transport information construction is just unfolding, but there are no ripe study on theoretical gudance and successful construction project, therefore, further studies are needed. The research of thesis included the following several respect mainly:(1) Based on the practical situation in railway dangerous goods transport, thesis firstly limits its attention to the influence of railway dangerous goods stations and sidings upon the economic scale and scope of railway dangerous goods transportation as well as the potential enviromental risks, on the basis of which suggestions for reasonable allocation of railway dangerous goods transportation resource and integration of stations and sidings are put forth. Then, thesis summaries and compares the railway dangerous goods transportation relative researches direction and progress in-china and abroad, points out railway dangerous goods transportation productivity distribution, location optimization, and relative theoretical system construction, modern maths method researches are lack, and makes an overview of location problems research and railway dangerous goods transport information construction situation.(2) The railway dangerous goods transport system components and the relationship of them are analyzed. Using the research method of system dynamics, the relationship among railway dangerous goods transportation system and its main external factors is analyzed, and the causality-feedback-loops are studied, such as railway dangerous goods transportation and social economy, other modes of transportation, science and technology, environment, security causality, supply&demand cost causality-feedback-loops. On the base of the analysis, some countermeasures and suggestion of developing railway dangerous goods transportation are proposed pertinently.(3) In order to analyze the present railway dangerous goods stations and sidings distribution, from the supply and demand adaptability view, thesis constructs the evaluation model of the radiation power of railway dangerous goods stations and sidings, and the fuzzy C-means algorithm is used in the service level clustering of regional railway dangerous goods transport productivity distribution based on GIS, the railway dangerous goods transport productivity distribution situation in sichuan as example is analyzed. Proposed the study of the railway dangerous goods stations functional division, based on CAS theory, railway dangerous goods stations complex adaptive system model with require and service pattern is established, by using the computer simulation method, studies the process of railway dangerous goods stations functional division and hierarchy system.(4) Railway dangerous goods stations and sidings hazard assessment system is studied, applying the set pair analysis theory to the hazard assessment in the given field, the new approach here recommended is not only suitable for the risk assessment, but also provides the gist to find the potential hazards that are likely to lead to dangerous accidents so as for the managers and departments concerned to take measures beforehand, and carry on safety management by setting up a relevant standard for the corresponding departments facing similar problems. Introducing the quantitative regional environmental risk theory into railway dangerous goods stations and sidings, based on the inherent environmental risk calculation of railway dangerous goods station and sidings, through the model of physical field, the regional environmental risk field model of railway dangerous goods station and sidings is established, the application effectiveness of the method is demonstrated.(5) The multi-criteria integrated railway dangerous goods stations and sidings multi-objective location-allocation optimization method is proposed, the method firstly comprehensively considers present railway dangerous goods stations and sidings conditions, makes multi-criteria decision evaluation to reject railway dangerous goods stations and sidings which need to be optimized allocation, the dangerous goods carried by these stations and sidings need to transfer the remaining stations and sidings, then, makes transportation demand investigation, based on the comprehensive utility evaluation of transportation demanders’selection about stations and sidings and the quantitative stations and sidings regional environmental risk evaluation, railway dangerous goods stations and sidings multi-objective location-allocation integrated optimization model is builded, and the combined Genetic Algorithms and bi-level Simulated Annealing are designed to solve model.(6) Railway dangerous goods transport system is a control system, the control theory which is the guiding theory of railway dangerous goods transport safety monitor information construction is studied, thesis analysis the necessity and feasibility of railway dangerous goods transport system safety monitoring information, studies the present developing, building and working railway dangerous goods stations and sidings safety monitor information system construction scheme.Finally, thesis summarizes the research work and results of the full paper, and puts forward several innovative points and jobs proposed needing to further investigate in the some futures of the thesis.更多还原