【作者】 王劭佑；

【导师】 喬桂明；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 近年來，許多國內外學者的研究越來越多地強調金融市場發展對實體經濟推動的重要性。在兩岸經貿合作快速發展的背景下，進一步推動兩岸金融一體化進程，不僅有利於為快速發展的兩岸經貿合作提供快捷優質的金融服務，而且還有利於促進兩岸金融業的調整優化，進一步提高海峽兩岸共同防範金融危機的能力。本文在剔除政治因素，特別是兩岸突發重大政治軍事事件的前提下，對兩岸金融交流與合作進行經濟學分析。首先在綜述國內外學者有關金融一體化和兩岸金融交流與合作的研究文獻的基礎上，明確本文所論述的兩岸金融一體化的基本內涵、發展階段及其特徵，並提出本文分析所切入的主要視角。然後，從機構互設、直接通匯、貨幣兌換和台商融資等方面對當前兩岸金融一體化的合作現狀和存在問題進行分析，並運用VAR模型對兩岸金融一體化程度進行計量評估，得出當前兩岸金融交流與合作的水準，尤其是資本市場合作還處於相當低的初級階段的結論。此外，主要從經濟學的角度出發，對影響和制約兩岸金融一體化的主要因素、成本收益及其可行性展開剖析，得出兩岸金融關聯性以及相關成本呈現出不斷降低的趨勢，並探討了有關推進兩岸金融一體化的實現路徑。最後，在前文分析的基礎上，分別從近期和中長期的角度提出推進兩岸金融合作，逐步走向金融一體化的政策建議。大陸地區和臺灣地區的經濟各有特點和優勢。臺灣在一個面積狹小的海島上創造出現代化的工業經濟，成為亞洲“四小龍”之一，擁有較強的工業基礎和技術實力。祖國大陸實行改革開放政策以後，經濟實力迅速增強，目前GDP總量已經躍居世界第二。台商在大陸的投資，是祖國大陸經濟增長的重要原因之一。大陸也為臺灣地區提供了廣闊的市場。但由於歷史的原因，兩岸的經貿合作一直沒有達到應有的水準。特別是在實體經濟以外的層次，如金融市場的合作還進行得比較緩慢，使得貨幣與資本並不能在兩岸自由的流動。但是兩岸經貿合作加強的趨勢不可能改變，兩岸金融市場間的聯繫也會越來越緊密。我們有必有要弄清兩岸金融合作的程度存在的互動和障礙以及對兩岸經濟造成的影響。近年來，不少研究機構和研究人員對於海峽兩岸金融交流與合作問題進行了研究，讓我們對兩岸的金融往來的狀況有了基本的認識。但在很多的研究過程中也存在著一些問題。首先，研究的視野不夠寬泛，相關的研究大多數局限於對兩岸金融問題本身的探討，較少有研究能夠將兩岸金融問題置於全球化背景下進行考察。其次，各個研究中，態度較主觀化，過分地強調兩岸金融往來滯後發展的主要原因在於臺灣當局所堅持“台獨”的政治立場，而對於一些客觀存在的經濟層面的因素探討不夠。再次，在研究內容方面也較為簡單化、單一化，兩岸金融往來所涉及銀行業、證券業、保險業等多個方面，但相關研究主要是集中在銀行業，而對於證券業、保險業等的關注卻不夠，對於兩岸間的資金流動總體情況的評估與研究也較少。此外，金融業是服務業部門中最具有影響性的行業，其業務範圍涵蓋了銀行業、保險業和證券業等①。由於全球金融貿易的金額非常龐大，對於影響一個國家的整體經濟實力存在著極大的重要性，所以海峽兩岸的政府對各自的金融業的管制都較為繁多、規範也最為嚴格。金融市場也對一國的經濟活動扮演重要的資金仲介角色，一旦金融自由化與市場開放過程出現了失誤，將會對該國家的貨幣政策與金融市場的安定造成巨大程度的傷害，所以在國與國之間的多邊或雙邊的談判過程中，各國對開放金融服務的議題大多採取謹慎的態度。即便如此，為了因應廣大的世界金融市場和提升競爭力的需求，金融制度的國際化與金融市場的自由化仍然持續成為國際間各國共同努力追求的目標，於是以國際金融法律為基礎，並在多國的協商交流架構下形成近代金融的新秩序規範體系—世界貿易組織。為了能比較全面、客觀地反應與分析兩岸金融市場的發展、兩岸金融市場的關聯程度以及兩岸金融合作對整個經濟發展增長的作用等問題，本論文劃分成六個部分來加以研究，具體論文安排結構如下：第一章為導論，主要闡述本文的研究動機、研究方法、研究意義和本論文的結構。導論的主要目的是介紹本論文所研究問題的現實意義和理論意義，本論文將要研究的主要內容和框架結構，以及本論文的創新性。第二章是文獻回顧，回顧了兩岸金融市場交流與合作領域的最近進展、理論淵源和相關文獻，並且做了詳細的考察，其目的在於解釋兩岸金融市場交流與合作的客觀基礎和發展的必然趨勢。第三章是對兩岸金融的發展與合作現狀的研究，分別從兩岸金融業、銀行業、證券業、保險業的發展程度方面，通過定性和描述分析的方法分析了兩岸金融業的各自發展及其合作過程。第四章承接第三章的分析，從實證的角度，採用Copula函數對兩岸金融市場關聯性進行了實證研究。第五章是兩岸金融市場的合作對經濟增長的影響。這一章在設計並測量兩岸金融合作程度指數的基礎之上，採用結構方程模型，分析研究了兩岸金融合作對經濟增長的影響。第六章是結論與政策建議。本論文給出了海峽兩岸在經濟全球化的背景下如何進一步進行兩岸金融市場的交流合作的對策，並且提出如何建立有效的金融監管體系，進一步進進金融創新，推動兩岸金融市場的深度合作，逐步走向金融一體化。通觀全文，本論文對於兩岸金融關聯程度與金融合作對經濟增長的必要性、兩岸金融合作滯後發展的原因以及極待解決的問題等方面的論述比較充分，但礙於相關資料的匱乏、實踐經驗的缺失、理論功底的有限，文章對如何突破兩岸金融合作的瓶頸的探尋顯得有些不足，這一方面的問題還希望相關學者加以批評指正。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, many research scholars more and more emphasis on the real economyand financial markets, the importance of two aspects. The rapid development of cross-straiteconomic and trade cooperation in the context of further cross-strait financial integration isnot only beneficial for the rapid development of cross-strait economic and tradecooperation to provide fast quality financial services, but also to promote cross-straitfinancial sector adjustment and optimization, to further improve the Straits two sides tojointly guard against financial crises. In this thesis, excluding political factors, particularlythe cross-strait political and military events of major emergencies under the premise ofcross-strait financial exchanges and cooperation in economic analysis. Shou Xian ZongShu domestic and foreign scholars in financial integration and Financial Exchanges andcooperation in research, based on clearly define financial integration discussed in Lianganthe basic content of the stages and characteristics, and made this paper cut into the analysisThe main point of view. Then, each set from the agencies, direct remittance, currencyexchange, and financing aspects of Taiwan cross-strait financial integration on the currentstatus and problems of cooperation in the analysis, and use VAR model to measure theextent of cross-strait financial integration, assessment, obtained the current cross-straitfinancial exchanges and cooperation between the level of cooperation, particularly thecapital market is still in a very low stage of conclusion. In addition, mainly from theeconomic point of view, is affecting and restricting cross-strait financial integration themain factors and the feasibility of cost-benefit analysis commenced obtained cross-straitfinancial connection and associated costs were continuously decreased, and discussed theabout promoting the realization of cross-strait financial integration path. Finally, on thebasis of the previous analysis, respectively, from the near and long-term perspective topromote cross-strait financial integration put forward policy recommendations.Mainland China and Taiwan have their own characteristics and advantages of the economic. Taiwan in a small area of the island created a modern industrialized economy,Asia’s "Four Little Dragons" one, with a strong industrial base and technical strength. Themainland’s reform and opening up policy, the economic strength increased rapidly, GDPhas been third in the world. Taiwanese investment in mainland China, the mainland’seconomic growth is an important reason. The mainland for Taiwan to provide a broadmarket. But due to historical reasons, the cross-strait economic and trade cooperation hasnot reached the required level. Especially in the real economy beyond the level ofcooperation such as financial market also carried out relatively slow, so capital can notflow freely in both sides. However, the trend of cross-strait economic and tradecooperation to strengthen irreversible cross-strait links between financial markets will begetting closer. There must be clear that we have the degree of cross-strait financialcooperation and cross-strait economic impact. In recent years, many research institutionsand researchers for cross-strait financial exchanges and cooperation in the research, let uscross-strait financial exchanges have a basic understanding of the situation. But in many ofthe research process there are some problems. First of all, not a broad view of research,related research on the most limited of cross-strait financial issues themselves, less oncross-strait financial issues can be placed in the context of globalization, and villages.Second, each study were more subjective, too much emphasis on the development ofcross-strait financial exchanges delayed the main reason is that the Taiwan authoritiesadhere to the "Taiwan independence" political position, and for a number of objectivefactors of the economic dimension is not enough. Again, the research also relatively simple,uniform, cross-strait financial exchanges involving banking, securities and insuranceindustries in many ways, but research is mainly concentrated in the banking industry, andfor securities and insurance industries The concern is not enough liquidity for the overallcross-strait situation assessment and study less.In addition, the financial industry is the most influential of the service sectorindustries, its business scope covers the banking, insurance, and securities industries, dueto global financial and trade very large amounts, affecting a country’s overall economicstrength of the existence of great importance, the Strait of government control of theirfinancial sector are relatively numerous, and most stringent specifications. Financialmarkets on a country’s economic activities play an important role in financialintermediation, once the process of financial liberalization and opening of the market made a mistake, will be the country’s monetary policy and financial market stability, the extent ofthe damage caused enormous, so in the country between countries in the multilateral orbilateral negotiations, the countries most open financial services issues be cautious. Evenso, the general response to world financial markets and competitiveness needs of theinternational financial system and financial market liberalization, countries continued towork together as an international goal, was based on international financial law, andconsultations and exchanges of many countries under the framework of the formation ofthe new order of modern financial system of norms-the World Trade Organization. Inorder to more comprehensive, objective analysis of the cross-strait exchange issues relatedto financial markets, the correlation of cross-strait financial markets and the cross-straitfinancial cooperation on the role of economic development and growth throughout thedepth of analysis, this paper divided into six parts, the specific arrangements for paper isstructured as follows: The first chapter is an introduction, the main motivation of thisresearch explained, research methods, significance and structure of this paper. IntroductionThe main purpose is to introduce the research questions of this thesis, the theoretical andpractical significance and meaning, and innovation of this paper and to give readers thecontents of this paper have a general understanding. The second literature review chapter isto review the financial markets of cross-strait exchanges and cooperation fields progress,theoretical sources and related, investigated in detail with the aim of Jieshi straitexchanges and cooperation in financial markets the foundation and development trend.The third chapter of cross-strait financial development and cooperation, respectively, fromthe cross-strait financial industry, banking, securities and insurance industry level, thequalitative analysis of the respective cross-strait financial sector development andcooperation. Chapter undertake the analysis of Chapter III of this chapter from theperspective of empirical validation of the empirical analysis in this chapter, on therelevance of cross-strait financial markets carried out empirical research, using Copulafunction of the cross correlation of financial markets. Chapter V is the cross-straitcooperation in the financial markets on economic growth. In this chapter, on the basis ofdesigned and measured the degree of cross-strait financial cooperation, studied itsinfluence s on the economic growth. Chapter VI Conclusions and policy recommendations.This paper gives the cross-strait economic globalization in the context of how to furthercross-strait exchanges and cooperation in financial market measures, and propose how to establish effective financial regulatory system, financial innovations to strengthencross-strait financial markets, international cooperation in the depth of financialView full text of the actual situation through writing, the paper associated with thedegree of cross-strait financial cooperation on the economic growth of financial need forthe development of cross-strait financial cooperation lags behind the causes and problemsto be solved, etc. discussed more fully, but due to lack of relevant information, the lack ofpractical experience, theoretical knowledge of the limited, the article on how to break thebottleneck of cross-strait financial cooperation appears to be insufficient to explore thisaspect would also like to criticize scholars correction.更多还原