【作者】 曹阳；

【导师】 赵淑芝；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市社会经济的发展和城市化进程的加快，城市人口急剧增加，大量流动人口进入城市，人员出行和物资交流频繁，城市交通形势严峻。世界各国的大中城市普遍存在着道路拥堵、交通秩序混乱的现象，城市交通矛盾越来越突出，成为制约城市经济发展的主要障碍。为解决城市交通拥堵问题，国内外很多大城市相继提出了以轨道交通为骨干、公共交通为主体的城市客运交通发展模式，但资金、政策、环境、决策理念等诸多因素却制约着我国城市轨道交通的良好发展。因此，结合我国城市特征和城市轨道交通运营特点，对城市轨道交通系统选型、运营调度方案和政策性亏损补贴等问题进行研究对我国城市轨道交通决策具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。本文结合我国城市轨道交通的发展现状，分析城市轨道交通系统内各子系统的信息化程度以及信息的完整性，对城市轨道交通系统选型、运营调度方案和政策性亏损补贴等问题的理论和方法开展了探索性研究。研究期望得出一套科学的、系统化的城市轨道交通运营决策的理论和方法体系，确定城市轨道交通系统的补贴方式，明确财政补贴的额度；完善数据采集方法，进一步实行数据挖掘，提高数据的利用率，实现动态实时调度，提高城市轨道交通运输效率；明确城市轨道交通中各条线路的功能定位和性能标准，并选择与之相适应的系统型式，以满足城市发展和城市交通的要求，辅助各城市进行城市轨道交通的规划决策，并为国家管理决策部门的决策管理提供依据，保障我国城市轨道交通的可持续发展。研究中运用信息融合理论和技术方法对城市轨道交通系统选型、运营调度方案和政策性亏损补贴等问题进行了理论上的探索和决策方法的研究。具体研究内容和创新性成果如下：(1)在综合分析信息融合理论和城市轨道交通信息化内容的基础上，提出了城市轨道交通信息融合理论体系，阐述了该理论体系的概念定义、核心理念、从属关系等内容；将城市轨道交通决策问题分为数据层融合、特征层融合和决策层融合三个层次，明确了各个层次决策的输入输出单元类型、决策目标以及需要研究解决的内容和相互间的逻辑从属关系，并针对各个层次给出了对应的实际决策问题，分别为基于数据融合的城市轨道交通财政补贴决策，基于特征融合的城市轨道交通实时调度决策以及基于决策融合的城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策。(2)对城市轨道主要的技术指标进行了汇总介绍。将城市轨道交通财政补贴问题分解为财政补贴方式选择和财政补贴决策两个阶段。基于信息融合的理论和方法，将城市轨道交通各个系统直接采集到的数据进行相关和集成融合计算出客流量、平均发车间隔和平均运距等。以社会福利最大化为目标，以票价、发车间隔、站间距以及服务区域面积等为决策变量，对城市轨道交通财政补贴问题进行了优化。计算结果表明，在社会福利最大化的目标下，收支平衡财政补贴政策适合于城市轨道交通系统。在此基础上，通过对车辆运营成本与乘客等车时间成本的分析，确定了乘客总的等车时间成本是常量固定的社会成本。利用边际成本法建立了城市轨道交通补贴决策模型。最后结合长春市轻轨的运营数据进行了实证分析，经检验证明该模型对城市轨道交通财政补贴具有辅助决策作用。(3)从城市轨道交通实时调度决策问题的分析入手，探寻调度决策问题的实质，进而总结出现有数据、方法和技术的不足。为完善原始数据的完整性，提出了乘客出行讫点明确性和TOD。探讨了新的数据采集方法，给出了对现阶段售票系统的改进方案，从而可以实时的采集到更完整的乘客出行信息，使实时调度的实现成为可能。基于信息融合理论的基本思想，将历史数据中的OD与车辆运行时间线相融合，得出TOD进而计算出客流数据的特征系数。并且以后车与前车的发车间隔作为模型的变量，以发车间隔最大为目标，同时考虑最小发车间隔、乘客所能容忍的最大等车时间和车厢容量的约束建立模型，得出单方向实时的非均匀的发车时刻表，作为车辆调度的依据。(4)将证据理论引入城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策问题，把城市轨道交通系统型式选择问题定义为：以应用各个城市指标确定的各种系统型式的概率赋值作为证据，再将这些证据按照一定的组合规则进行组合做出城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策的融合问题。根据D-S证据理论的推理方法，将城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策定义为论域；城市轨道交通系统的型式定义为论域内的元素；与城市轨道交通系统建设决策有关的指标定义为证据；将各条证据进行组合得出城市轨道交通系统型式选择的综合概率支持函数，从而为城市轨道交通系统型式选择做出决策。据此，建立了城市轨道交通系统型式选择模型，探讨了适用于城市轨道交通系统型式选择问题的组合规则，并应用所得证据组合方法进行求解。本文的研究成果将丰富与拓展城市轨道交通运营与发展决策方法的理论框架与方法体系，为城市轨道交通运营与发展决策提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the acceleration of the urban social and economic development and urbanizationprocess, there is a sharp increase in urban population, a large number of population floatinto the city, Staff travel and commodity exchange occur frequently,so the situation of theurban traffic is becoming grim. Many large and medium cities of the world have theproblem of road congestion and traffic disorder, the contradiction of the urban traffic ismore and more prominent, which lead to restrict the development of urban economy. Manybig cities at home and abroad have pointed out the development model of urban passengertransport which based on the urban rail transit and public transport in order to address theproblem of urban traffic congestion. But many factors, such as funding, environment,decision-making and policy, are restricting the development of urban rail transit.So it hasimportant practical and theoretical value to study on the urban rail transit system selection,operation scheduling scheme and policy subsidies for losses.Based on the current development of China’s urban rail transport, this paper analysedthe degree and the integrity of the information of each subsystem in the urban rail transitsystem, and carried out exploratory research on the theories and methods of urban railtransit system selection, operation scheduling scheme and Policy subsidies for losses. A setof theory and methodology of operational decision-making for urban rail transit which isscientific and systematic was expected to draw to ascertain the subsidies for urban railtransit system and the amount of financial subsidies, to improve the data collectionmethods which can do further data mining and improve the utilization of data, to achievedynamic real-time scheduling in order to improve the efficiency of urban rail transit, toclear the functional position and performance standards of urban rail transit lines and selectthe corresponding system type in order to meet the requirements of urban transportationand make planning decisions of urban rail transit in cities,and to provide the basis fordecision management of the state department. The paper made theoretical exploration anddecision-making method on urban rail transit system selection, Operation schedulingscheme and Policy subsidies for losses by using the theory and techniques of informationfusion. Specific research and innovation results are given in the following:(1) Based on the the theory of information fusion and the information of urban rail transit, This paper pointed out the theoretical system for information fusion of urban railtransit and elaborated the conception,core concept and affiliation of the theoretical system;The information fusion of urban rail transit was divided into three levels: datafusion,feature fusion and decision fusion,then cleared the type of input and output unit foreach level decision-making,and each level has correspnding decision-making: financialsubsidy decisions of urban rail transit based on data fusion, real-time scheduling decisionsof urban rail transport based on feature fusion and type selection decisions of urban railtransit system based on decision fusion.(2) The paper made summary introduction about the main technical indicators ofurban rail transit.data from each system of urban rail transit was collected and fused tocalculate the passenger traffic, the average grid spacing and average distance. Aimed atmaximizing the social welfare, the paper optimized the financial subsidies of urban railtransit according to the decision variables such as the fare, the grid spacing, station spacingand service area, etc. The calculation results showed that break-even financial subsidypolicy was suitable for urban rail transit system to the goal of maximizing social welfare.On this basis, it could be identified that the total waiting time cost of passengers wasconstant fixed social cost by analyzing vehicle operating cost and waiting time cost ofpassengers, and made the decision model of urban rail transit subsidy decision by usingmarginal cost method.Finally analysized the operational data of light rail in ChangChun,and proved that this model played a decision-supporting role of urban rail transit financialsubsidies.(3) By analyzing real-time scheduling decision of urban rail transit, this paper studiedthe essence of real-time scheduling decision and summarized the lack of existing data,methods and techniques.then pointed out the clarity of passengers travel destination pointand TOD to improve the integrity of the original data. New Data collection method andimprovement program to the ticketing system at this stage were given to collect morecomplete travel information of passengers and to achieve real-time scheduling. TOD wasobtained to calculate the correction factor of passenger data by combining OD in thehistorical data and the vehicle running time line according to the basic idea of informationfusion. The paper also obtained the one-way real-time non-uniform departure scheduleswhich would be the basis of vehicle scheduling by making model that aimed at maximizinggrid spacing and used the grid spacing between two cars as variables of the model,meanwhile considered minimum grid spacing, the the maximum waiting time whichpassenger can tolerate and constraint of carriage capacity.(4) System type selection of urban rail transit by introducing the evidence theory could be defined as: by applying probability assignment of a variety of system typesdetermined in each city as evidence, and then combine the evidence by certain rules tomake the integration of urban rail transit system type selection decisions. Based on thereasoning method of the D-S evidence theory, type selection decisions of urban rail transitsystem was defined as the domain, the type of urban rail transit system was defined as theelements on the domain, indicators related to construction decisions of urban rail transitsystem was defined as evidence.Then the evidence was combined to draw the integratedprobability of support functions in order to do decision-making for urban rail transit systemtype selection. So the model of urban rail transit system type selection was made,combination rules which apply to urban rail transit system type selection were elaboratedand solved problems with combination method of evidence.The research of this paper could enrich and expand the theoretical framework andmethodology of operation and development decision-making methods for urban rail transit,and provide the theoretical basis for urban rail transit operations and developmentdecision-making.更多还原