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中国煤层气产业发展评价及途径研究

Research on China’s CBM Industry Development Evaluation and Approach

【作者】 周娉

【导师】 崔彬;

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学(北京) , 资源产业经济, 2012, 博士

【摘要】 21世纪的能源安全对于世界经济的稳定和可持续发展至关重要。从保障能源安全的角度来看,发展中国煤层气产业具有重大的现实意义。同时,发展中国煤层气产业也具有经济、政治和法律上的可行性,煤层气产业的前景一派看好。我国煤层气产业已经进入产业成长初期,但产业发展速度总体较慢,仍然面临一系列的困难和问题,且已不同程度地制约了我国煤层气产业的发展。层次分析法研究结果表明:在我国煤层气产业发展评价指标中,除可采资源量外,经济效益、国际合作、运营资本和政府规制的权重相对较大,是我国煤层气产业发展过程中的薄弱环节,需针对其不足加以改进。本文针对这四个权重较大的影响因素,特提出中国煤层气产业的高效共采、国际合作、投融资及规制等发展途径。研究表明,煤层气、致密砂岩气、页岩气等非常规天然气资源具有成因联系和共生特征,煤系地层中含有丰富的煤层气、致密砂岩气、页岩气等非常规天然气资源,这就决定了这些非常规天然气资源的可共采性,从而提高煤层气开发利用的经济效益。研究表明,煤层气产业是技术密集型产业,科技进步已经渗透到勘探、生产、集输和利用等环节。美国等国家煤层气开发技术的先进决定了我国近期应以国际合作提高自身发展水平,进而促进煤层气产业的成长和发展。研究表明,煤层气勘探开发分为煤层气勘查、煤层气开采和煤层气经营三阶段。煤层气勘查阶段融资的最大特点是融资风险高、资金需求量小、成功时收益回报率高,可选择的融资方式相对少,应以财政融资为主;煤层气开采阶段是所需求资金量最大的阶段,风险程度相对较低,资金回报率也有所下降,可选择融资的方式较多,以项目融资为最佳;煤层气经营阶段的风险性相对来说最低,因此融资渠道比前两阶段更广泛,融资途径可采用证券融资、国际融资等。研究表明,煤层气产业具有自然垄断性,导致了对煤层气产业予以规制的现实需求。针对现阶段中国煤层气产业规制的不足,本文提出了相应的对策建议:政企分开,设立独立的监管机构;强化价格规制;完善法律法规体系;引入竞争机制;引入激励性规制方式;加强对规制者的规制。

【Abstract】 Energy security in21century is very important for economic stability and sustainabledevelopment of the world. From the point of view of energy security, developing Chinesecoal-bed methane (CBM) industry is of great practical significance. At the same time,developing Chinese CBM industry also has economic, political and legal feasibility, andthe prospect of CBM industry is very good.Chinese CBM industry has entered into the initial stage of industrial growth, but theoverall speed of industry development is slow, and the industry still face a series ofdifficulties and problems which have already restricted the development of Chinese CBMindustry. The results of Analytic Hierarchy Process show that in Chinese CBM industrydevelopment evaluation indexs, except for recoverable resources, the weight of economicbenefits, international cooperation, operating capital and government regulation isrelatively bigger, and they are weak links of the development process of Chinese CBMindustry which need to be improved for their shortages. This paper presented ways inefficient joint mining, international cooperation, investment and regulation as thedevelopment ways of Chinese CBM industry, for the four major affecting factors that areheavily weighted.Research shows that, unconventional natural gas resources including CBM,compacted sandstone gas, and shale gas have genetic relationships and symbiosischaracteristics. It determines the possibility of joint exploration of these unconventionalnatural gas resources that CBM, compacted sandstone gas, and shale gas deposit richly incoal formation, and so as to improve economic benefits of development and utilization ofCBM.Research shows that, CBM industry is a technology intensive industry, the progress ofscience and technology has penetrated into exploration, production, gathering andtransportation, utilization, etc. The advance of CBM technology of United States and othercountries determine that China should improve our own development level throughinternational cooperation in recent years, so as to promote the growth and development ofCBM industry. Research shows that, exploration and development of CBM can be divided into threestages, and they are CBM survey, CBM exploration and CBM operation. The biggestcharacteristic of financing in CBM survey stage is high financing risk, small capitaldemand, high rate of return from success, so the financing ways that it can choose arerelatively rare, and the main choice should be finance financing; CBM exploration stage isthe stage whose demand for funds is the largest, and its risk degree is relatively low, andreturn rate of capital also declined, so the financing ways that it can choose are more, andproject financing is the best; The risk of CBM operation stage is relatively the lowest, soits financing channels are more widely than the first two stages, including securitiesfinancing, international financing, etc.Research shows that, CBM industry is a natural monopoly, which led to the practicalneed to be regulated for CBM industry. Aimed at the shortages of Chinese CBM industryregulation in present, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures: toseparate enterprises from government management, to set up an independent regulatoryagencies, to strengthen the price regulation, to improve the legal system, to introducecompetition mechanism, to introduce incentive regulation method and to strengthen theregulation on regulator.

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