【作者】 雷丽萍；

【导师】 佘廉；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 行政管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 保障水安全是一个国家和地区和谐发展的战略性目标。在水安全问题日益严峻的背景下,世界各国各国都将水体干预行为作为解困水安全问题的主要手段。在诸如拦河筑坝、引水调水等诸多干预行为缓解人类水安全威胁的同时,也产生了难以预计的因水体干预行为损害涉水区域未来持续发展的社会负面影响。例如河流筑坝工程需大量移民而导致的移民持续性贫困、河流上游拦水调水引发下游区域社会生产与社会秩序的冲突等。并且,我国边境地区大规模的河流水体干预行为已经引发周边国家的不安。这些负而影响使得水体干预行为陷入了“一些解决问题的手段也是制造问题的途径”这一当代人类常常面临的困境和悖论中。本文针对这一必然的社会活动所引发的现实困境与未来社会安全风险,提出了水体干预行为的“大安全”研究视角,分析了水体干预行为引发的所有社会风险及产生的安全威胁特性,构建了水体干预行为三维评价理论概念与分析框架,提出了包纳水体干预行为的27种安全风险评价模块。并运用该分析模型对我国南水北调工程的各类风险与安全威胁进行了验证性评价,在此基础上提出了以“移民后期的能力建设、长效生态补偿机制、水安全战略调整”为核心的对策建议。本文的主要研究工作包括四个方面：(1)水体干预行为在解困水安全问题的同时也引发了新的社会和谐发展的安全风险,这需要引入新的视角对其进行全面认识和评价。本文梳理了在人类不同的历史阶段,水体干预行为在解困水安全问题方面的不同作用。然后,通过对三门峡工程、阿斯旺高坝工程、三峡工程、鄱阳湖大坝工程、刻赤海峡大坝工程等案例进行深入而细致的多案例分析,对比总结了水体干预行为产生的诸多负而影响对社会安全和国家造成的安全威胁。而当前水体干预行为认识和评价的主要视角——工程视角、环境视角、经济视角,在认识和评价水体干预行为重构社会安全威胁的问题上中面临着理论上的局限,导致了在工程和经济上可行的水体干预行为在长期的社会活动中遭遇争议、冲突甚至失败。因此,需要建立个新的视角,对水体干预行为进行更为全面、综合和能够经历社会历史检验的认识观。这便是本文提出的“大安全”研究视角。(2)揭示水体干预行为重构社会安全风险的尺度效应和维度特征。本文对三门峡工程运行初期、改建期、稳定运行期等不同时间尺度下的社会安全威胁特点进行了细致的分析,揭示其时间尺度变化下的安全威胁过程机理；通过对阿斯旺高坝工程和刻赤海峡大坝工程的历史负而影响的梳理所凸显的环境安全、经济安全、政治安全、军事安全等多安全领域的特点,提示其时间尺度变化下诸多社会安全威胁在空间尺度上的互动作用机理；通过对三峡工程和待建的鄱阳湖大坝工程的分析,揭示了水体干预行为在库区、流域、移民安置地区、以至国家层面等空间引发的社会后果所凸显的多尺度空间效应。(3)从时间维度、空间维度、社会领域维度的综合分析角度,以河流干预行为为对象,在对水体干预行为的时间特性、空间特性、安全风险特性分析的基础上,建立了基于时间、空间、社会领域的三维评估方法,全新构建了水体干预行为的三维安全理论概念框架。并运用此维度概念,将时间维度划分为小时间尺度、中时间尺度、大时间尺度3个尺度,将空间维度分为局部地区、流域或区域、国家3个尺度,将安全领域分为工程-经济领域、社会-环境领域、政治-军事领域等3个维度,由此将河流水体干预行为及其社会后果划分为3×3×3个行为风险类型,提出了细分的27种水安全风险行为评估模块。这些风险评估模块既可包容纳水体干预行为的传统评估内容,也可以全而刻画、分析、预测水体干预行为的社会综合风险与安全威胁。(4)对陆地地下水、地表水、大气水的水体自然分布方式,运用水体干预行为的三维分析理论框架,分析了三种水体干预行为的安全风险来源,评估了针对三类水体分布对象的干预行为可能造成的安全威胁。尤其是对当前处于探索阶段的大气水体干预行为进行了具有前瞻性的社会安全风险分析。(5)本文最后运用新的多维水体干预行为分析模型与评估方法,针对我国正在建设的南水北调工程进行了验证性分析,提示了中线南水北调工程的水安全现状与未来风险,提出了避险与减缓的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ensuring water security has already been a strategic aim for countries and regions. In the context of increasingly serious problem of water security, the whole world takes water intervention actions as a powerful mean to solve water security problems. Nevertheless, many water intervention actions which may relief water security crisis also produce some unpredictable negative effects simultaneously. For example, the migration may lead to persistent poverty and threaten local social order. These negative effects trapped the water intervention action into a paradox that some problem solutions also become new problem source. With this problematical phenomenon and reality, we introduce a new security perspective and analyze the property of security threats caused by water intervention action, and build a three-dimension theoretical evaluation framework for water intervention action. Further,27security risk evaluation modes for water intervention action are advanced. Based on it, a qualitative evaluation on security threaten is conducted for South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Finally, we propose some suggestions around capability construction for immigration afterward, long-term ecological compensation mechanism built and water security strategy adjustment.The main findings and research effort in this dissertation involve the following elements:First, while the water intervention action solves the water security problems, it also cause new security risk threatening social harmonious development. That’s need to bring new perspective to fully understand and evaluate these threats.This dissertation analyzes different role of water intervention action in different historical period. Then through multiple case study of Sanmenxia project, Aswan high dam project, the Three Gorges project, the Poyang Lake dam project, the Kerch Strait dam project, we conclude a lot of negative impact threatening human security and national security. However, the main perspectives to understand and evaluate the water intervention action, such as engineering perspective, environmental perspective, and economic perspective face some theoretical limits, resulting in failure in water intervention actions even they are feasible in Engineering and economic. Therefore, we need a new perspective which can make up the above perspective deficiency and get a more comprehensive and integrated understanding of water intervention action. The new perspertive is security perspective.Second, the obvious scale effect and multi-dimension feature of social security risk caused by water intervention action is revealed.This dissertation conducts a detailed analysis on Sanmenxia project and reveals that under different time scale such as the early operation period, rebuilt period and stable operation period has different security threats. And through analysis on the negative effect of Aswan high dam project and the Kerch Strait dam project, we can find the security threat involved in multiple security fields such as environmental security field, economic security, social security, politics security, military security and the security fields exist interactions. We also analyze the Three Gorges and Poyang Lake dam project, which show multi-scale spatial effect in reservoir area, river basin, the resettlement location and even the state.Third, from a three-dimensional security evaluation theoretical framework which contains the time dimension, spatial dimension and security field dimension, with the object of water intervention action, we build temporal-spatial-security field evaluation framework based on the dimension feature of time, space and security. Then, we rank temporal dimension by small scale, middle scale and large scale, rank spatial dimension by local, basin or regional and national and divide security field into engineering-economic, social-environmental and political-military. Combined each scale of the evaluation dimensions can form3x3x3possible security evaluation modules. These evaluation modules are capable of accommodating conventional evaluation perspective of water intervention action, and can fully describe, analyze and predict the risk and security theat round the water intervention action.Fourth, for the groundwater intervention action, surface water intervention action, and atmospheric water intervention action, We apply the three-dimensional security evaluation theoretical framework to analyze security threat source. And we also evaluate the possible security threat caused by the three water intervention types respectively. Especially, we do some forward-looking analysis and security evaluation for the atmospheric water intervention which is still in the exploration stage currently.Fifth, finally we apply new multidimensional water security risk evaluation model and approach to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in the process of construction, and suggests water security status and future risk for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and put forward the mitigation hedging policy recommendations.更多还原