【作者】 李岩；

【导师】 邴正；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 马克思主义哲学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本论文的中心思想是对中国社会发展预测理论与实践的研究。社会预测作为社会认识的一种高级形式，指的是主体在一定理论的指导下，依据对社会发展规律的把握而对未来可能发生的社会现象、事件和过程的预见。社会发展预测目的在于帮助人们选择符合社会发展的目标，选择达到未来理想社会的途径和手段，提供改进措施，控制社会的发展趋势，预防社会发展的不良后果，为决策者做出科学合理决策，为制定社会未来的远景规划提供切实可靠的依据。论文对西方社会发展预测理论做了系统的分析，并着重讨论了马克思对社会历史规律和科学社会主义的预测。马克思的历史唯物主义在一定意义上可以被看做是马克思关于人类社会历史发展的预测。他所设定的社会历史发展目标就是“人类解放”。论文总结分析了当代中国学术界对社会发展预测的研究，对社会发展预测理论探索的诸种层面进行梳理和考察，并对社会发展预测的预测标准和预测方法做了探索。论文着重分析了当代中国社会发展预测的特殊性与规律性问题，探讨了中国社会发展的性质、中国社会发展的观念、中国社会发展的目标、中国社会发展的方式，提出了作者自己的见解。论文共分七章：第一章社会发展预测的性质、意义与研究方法，这章主要从总体上考察并分析了社会发展预测的性质、意义与研究方法。第二章西方社会发展预测的理论研究与评析，这章对西方社会发展预测的经典理论进行了研究与评析。西方从20世纪中期起，欧美兴起一股预测热潮。维柯、斯宾格勒、汤因比、保罗·肯尼迪，追寻他们以历史哲学的独特视野对待社会发展的预测，使我们全面地看待社会发展问题。第三章马克思关于社会发展预测的研究，这章讨论了马克思对社会历史规律和科学社会主义的分析。马克思的历史唯物主义在一定意义上可以被看做是马克思关于人类社会历史发展的预测。他所设定的社会历史发展目标就是“人类解放”。马克思所揭示出来的生产力与生产关系之间的相互作用的基本原理，是马克思社会发展预测理论的历史科学的基石。根据生产力决定生产关系的基本原理，马克思把人类社会形态更替划分为五个阶段：原始社会，奴隶社会，封建社会，资本主义社会和共产主义社会。后来，又提出了社会历史发展的“三形态说”：“人对人的依附关系”的社会形态；“以物的依赖性为基础的独立性”；“自由人的联合体”。马克思对科学社会主义的预测表现在：其一，阶级斗争的必然性。其二，经济危机的必然性。其三，无产阶级专政的必然性。其四，公有制经济制度的必然性。第四章当代中国学术界对社会发展预测的研究，这章介绍了当代中国学术界对社会发展预测的研究。随着中国社会改革开放的日益深入，众多哲学、社会学、文化学、政治学、未来学领域的学者致力于社会发展预测的研究和探讨。主要表现在：对发展市场经济与“国家-社会”关系的预见；对中国社会发展理论的探索与建构；以及马克思主义社会发展观的转变与社会发展哲学的兴起。第五章社会发展预测的理论探索，这章对社会发展预测理论探索的诸种层面进行梳理和考察。首先，是关于社会发展预测与社会规律的辩证关系。社会规律的主观性是说社会规律总是由人的目的和意识参与其中的。历史的客观性是说，社会历史的组织形式是不能因为个体而改变的。其次，关于社会发展与社会预测的矛盾关系研究。主要表现有：社会发展的主体与客体的矛盾。社会发展的目的与手段的矛盾。社会发展的必然与偶然的矛盾。社会发展的统一与多样的矛盾。其三，关于社会发展的宏观预测与微观预测关系研究。主要有：哲学预测与理论社会学的关系。理论社会学与测量方法的关系。社会预测与指标系统的关系。第六章社会发展预测的标准与方法，这章探讨了社会发展预测的预测标准和预测方法。根据社会发展的基本方面，可以将社会发展预测的标准划分为经济标准、政治标准、文化标准和生活的标准。社会发展预测的主要方法有规律性认识、趋势预测、理论模型建构和指标体系预测法。对社会发展规律所形成的一般性理论知识使对社会发展进行理论预测成为可能。除此之外，社会发展预测还依赖对已知事实和情报信息的综合分析。理论模型是一种分析和描述现实世界的方法，通过建立某些假设，以影响社会发展的主要因素为基础，建立起分析社会发展的模型，可以通过模型对特定条件下的社会发展进行分析和预测。第七章当代中国社会发展预测的探索，这章分析了当代中国社会发展预测的特殊性与规律性问题。首先，关于当代中国社会发展预测的特殊性。邓小平指出，马克思主义必须与中国社会现实的国情和历史相结合，走出具有中国特色的社会主义道路。对当代中国社会发展的规律性的预测，其中涉及的问题有：中国社会发展的性质。改革开放以来，我们虽然实现了从阶级斗争到以经济建设为中心的转向，实行了市场经济体制，但这并不意味着国家性质发生了改变。中国社会的发展观念主要经历了两个阶段。一个是邓小平理论提出的“发展是硬道理”；另一个是科学发展观当中提出的“科学发展”。中国社会发展的目标。从科学发展观的理论出发，中国社会发展的当代目标就是要实现以人为本。中国社会发展的方式。社会发展的方式包括两个方面，一个是突变的方式，另一个是渐进的方式。当代中国社会的发展不可能通过突变的方式完成。论文的主要特点和创新之处在于：第一，较全面的系统分析总结了社会发展理论的发展脉络和各派观点。第二，从马克思主义理论出发，探讨了社会发展预测的性质、内容、标准、方法诸问题。第三，结合实践，对当代中国社会发展趋势预测做了初步探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 The first chapter, in general, mainly investigates and analyzes the characteristicsand the significance of predicting social development and the relevant researchmethod. As one advanced form of social recognition, social prediction refers to suchone that under the guidance of certain theory, the subject has the forecasting to thepossible social phenomena, events and processes in future based on laws of socialdevelopment, which has roughly undergone the four stages in the human history:divine prediction, experimental prediction, philosophical prediction and empiricalprediction. Prediction of social development has a practical significance. Thepurpose of predicting social development is to help people select the goal of socialimprovement and the approach or means of realizing the ideal society, and providethe improvement measures for controlling the social development tendency andpreventing its negative effects. Furthermore, prediction of social development hasalso provided the credible basis to make the scientific and reasonable decision anddraw up the long-rang planning on future society. At present, the research method ofpredicting social development comprises literature, comparison and case study.The second chapter is to conduct the research and the analysis on the westernclassical theories of predicting social development. Since the middle of20th century,the upsurge of prediction has sprung up in European and American countries. Thefamous philosophers, like Vico, Spengler, Toynbee, Paul Kennedy, has carried outthe prediction of social development from the perspective of historical philosophy,which makes us comprehensively treat the problem of social development. Inaddition, a more important thing is the contribution of “future sociology”, which hasbrought about the significant revolution of conception of human social history, andhas innovated the social theory, and has had the guiding influence on thedevelopment plan in human society. Economic projection is such predicted activitythat predicts the tendency and the condition of uncertainty events in future ofeconomic field and serves for economic decision. Economic projection hasaccounted for a considerable proportion in the activities of social prediction. And theories of economic prediction have greatly developed and have become anindependent new branch in social prediction----science of economic projection.The third chapter discusses the Marx’s prediction to social historical laws andscientific socialism. Marxian historical materialism, in some sense, can be regardedas the prediction about the historical development of human society. The goal ofsocial historical development that Marx sets is “human liberation”. Marx proclaimsthat the productivity and relations of production have interacted with each other andsuch basic principle is the scientific footstone of theory of Marxian socialdevelopment prediction. According to the fundamental principle that productivitydetermines relations of production, Marx has divided human social formation intofive stages. They are primitive society, slave society, feudal society, capitalist societyand communist society. Later Marx has also proposed “Tri-formation Theory”:person-to-person relations of dependence, independence based on objects’dependence and unity of free men. Marxian prediction to scientific socialismdisplays in the following aspects: certainty of class struggle, certainty of economiccrisis, certainty of proletarian dictatorship, and certainty of the system ofpublic-owned economy.The forth chapter introduces the research of contemporary Chinese academiccircles on predicting social development. With the rapid development of reform andopening of Chinese society, more and more scholars in the fields of philosophy,sociology, culturology, politics, and futurology, have devoted themselves to the studyand research on predicting social development, which shows in the followingrespects: foreseeing the relation between the development of market-orientedeconomy and the “country-society”; exploring and constructing theory of China’ssocial development; change of the social development outlook of Marxism and therise of philosophy of social development. In the area of Chinese sociology, the maindiscussion is about the internal relationship between sociology and social prediction.The relevant scholars have reached an agreement that, the contemporary society hasrapidly changed while the social prediction has been comparatively delayed. Suchcontrast requires studying the basic theory and the approach of social prediction. Thecontemporary Chinese area of social prediction has also carried out the in-depth research not only on the fundamental principle, the methods or means and themechanism of social prediction, but also on social stability and risk warning.The fifth chapter undertakes the investigation to a variety of levels about theoryof social development prediction. First of all, we will study the dialectical relationbetween social development prediction and social laws. The subjectivity of sociallaws implies that social laws have always been affected by people’s intention andawareness, while the historical subjectivity stresses that the organizational form ofsocial history cannot change only because of the individual. Besides, the research onthe contradictory relation between social development and social prediction has beenfocused and mainly been performed as follows.1. Contradiction between subject andobject of social development;2. Contradiction between purpose and approaches ofsocial development;3. Contradiction between necessity and occasionality of socialdevelopment;4. Contradiction between unitarity and diversity of social development.Thirdly, we will consider the relation between macro-prediction andmicro-prediction of social development, including the following aspects.1. Relationbetween philosophical prediction and theoretical sociology;2. Relation betweentheoretical sociology and measuring methods;3. Relation between social predictionand index system.The sixth chapter points out the standards and approaches of socialdevelopment prediction. According to the fundamental knowledge of socialdevelopment, we can divide the standards into four types: economic standard,political standard, cultural standard and life standard. The important approaches ofpredicting social development comprise disciplinary cognition, trend projection,construction of theoretical model and prediction of index system. The generaltheoretical knowledge based on laws of social development has made the theoreticalprediction of social development possible. In addition, prediction of socialdevelopment relies on the comprehensive analysis on known facts and intelligenceinformation as well. As an approach of analyzing and describing the realistic world,the theoretical model is such model that analyzes social development by buildingsome hypotheses on the basis of the primary influencing factors, by which we couldcarry on the analysis and the prediction on social development under specificcircumstances.The seventh chapter lays more emphasis on particularity (Chinese characteristics) and regularity (universality) of social development prediction incontemporary China. First of all, it is particularity of predicting social developmentin contemporary China. Deng Xiaoping points out that we should combine Marxismwith the national conditions of Chinese society and walk out the socialist road withChinese characteristics. The prediction to regularity of social development incontemporary China involves a series of questions.(1) Nature of Chinese socialdevelopment. Since reform and opening-up, although we have shifted from classstruggle to centre on economic construction and realized market-oriented economicsystem, it doesn’t mean that nature of the nation has changed.(2) There are twostages with respect to Chinese social development. One is “Development is theabsolute principle.” proposed by Deng Xiaoping; the other one is “scientificdevelopment” from the scientific development view.(3) Goal of Chinese socialdevelopment. Starting from theory of the scientific development view, we needachieve the “people-oriented” goal.(4) Pattern of Chinese social development. Itconsists of sudden pattern and gradual pattern. And the contemporary Chinese socialdevelopment may not be completed in a sudden way.更多还原