【作者】 冯永琦；

【导师】 李晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 人民币国际化是现阶段中国政府在国际货币金融领域中的核心发展战略。香港人民币离岸市场的形成和发展是人民币国际化战略的重要环节。香港人民币离岸市场是在中国政府政策主导下逐步形成的,属于政策推动型的本币离岸金融市场。政策推动与本币离岸也是香港人民币离岸市场的显著特征。本文对香港人民币离岸市场形成与发展的研究分为七个部分。第一部分为导论。这部分介绍了选题背景和研究意义,对国际离岸金融市场和香港人民币离岸金融市场的形成、发展模式、监管、影响和建设等方面进行了相关文献综述的梳理,对本文的研究方法和结构安排进行了阐述,并指出本文研究的创新之处与不足。第二部分对第二次世界大战以后国际离岸金融市场的发展变化进行归纳与梳理,并通过总结二战后国际离岸金融市场发展的经验。二战后离岸金融市场的传统形式是欧洲货币市场,之后出现了“在岸”离岸金融市场的形式。离岸金融的定义依据也从国境或边境演变成金融监管体系或金融运行体系的内外分离。对离岸金融市场类型的划分可以从不同的角度进行,主要包括形成方式、运行模式、货币种类、业务构成等多种角度。从交易货币与市场所在地之间的关系角度来看,离岸金融可以分为“本币离岸金融”和“外币离岸金融”。二战后国际离岸金融市场在运行模式、监管方式以及离岸利率体系等方面为香港人民币离岸市场提供了重要的发展经验。第三部分阐述了香港人民币离岸市场在政策推动下的建立背景和过程,并分析了香港人民币离岸市场的特殊性。人民币国际化战略的需要、全球离岸金融持续增长趋势的国际金融形势和环境以及香港发达金融系统提供的有利条件,是香港人民币离岸市场建立的重要背景。从2003年底到2012年初,香港人民币离岸市场的建立过程包括萌芽阶段、形成阶段和全面建设阶段。香港人民币离岸市场是在境外由政策推动的本币离岸市场,所以,与同样属于政策推动型本币离岸市场的纽约美元离岸市场或东京日元离岸市场相比,香港人民币离岸市场在建立方式、产生原因、运行模式以及监管模式等方面存在着显著的特殊性。第四部分对香港人民币离岸市场的结构进行了分析。在香港离岸人民币货币市场上,离岸人民币存款的增速会有所下降,香港企业人民币存款的比例仍会上升,政策因素、人民币升值预期以及人民币回流渠道是离岸人民币贷款融资业务发展的重要影响因素。离岸人民币存贷款利率将会上升,三大银行的人民币同业拆借利率水平趋于一致,统一的人民币市场基准利率HIBOR CNY的出现尚需时日。香港离岸人民币债券市场将继续保持快速增长趋势,离岸人民币债券收益率将上升,其二级市场有望得到快速发展,更多内地企业将直接赴港发行人民币债券,离岸人民币债券的定价机制将会得到完善。香港离岸人民币股票市场发展缓慢,但境外中小型企业是香港离岸人民币股票市场的重点吸引和发展对象。香港离岸人民币即期和远期外汇市场发展迅速,但是受到人民币可自由兑换性等政策因素的约束较大。香港离岸人民币产品包括离岸人民币的金融衍生产品以及金融投融资产品。离岸人民币产品收益、人民币汇率预期以及相关管制政策是影响离岸人民币产品市场发展的重要因素。第五部分对香港人民币离岸市场的影响进行了分析。在对境内在岸金融市场的影响方面,离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率存在着引导关系,主要表现在离岸人民币短期合约对在岸人民币即期和短期合约方面。同时,即期或短期限的离岸与在岸人民币汇率的双向引导关系将会愈加明显。但是,离岸人民币利率的波动对在岸人民币利率基本上不会产生明显的影响。没有在境外借外债额度的境内机构或企业在香港融资人民币后并回流到境内,或RQFII的人民币回流会明显增加境内货币供应量的规模,而外资企业的人民币FDI以及人民币贸易结算的人民币回流不会对境内货币供应量的规模产生影响。人民币离岸金融市场的发展会提升香港国际金融中心的地位和实力,但人民币替代港元的可能性依然很低,其对港元的替代条件并不具备。同时,香港人民币离岸市场为国际金融市场提供更多的投融资场所和机会,也使人民币在国际货币结构中的影响力得到显著提升。第六部分探讨了香港人民币离岸市场的预期风险问题。香港人民币离岸市场发展过程中的预期风险主要有两个根源,即政策取向问题和市场预期问题。离岸与在岸人民币价格或收益的差异是政策取向预期风险产生的重要原因。在香港人民币离岸市场上的最重要市场预期就是对人民币的升值预期。稳定的人民币升值预期是支撑香港人民币离岸市场发展的基本条件,但也成为人民币离岸市场发展的风险根源。香港人民币离岸市场的预期风险包括投机套利阻碍市场健康发展的风险、短期跨境资金流动的风险、削弱货币政策有效性的风险、阻碍人民币国际化进程的“再贷款游戏”风险、离岸市场建设过程中的其它风险。香港人民币离岸市场预期风险防范的基本思路包括缩小离岸与在岸人民币价格和收益的差异、推动内地利率市场化和汇率形成机制的改革深化、加强监管机制的完善和市场的风险管理、推进香港人民币离岸市场不断走向成熟。第七部分在对国际离岸金融发展经验以及香港人民币离岸市场的建立、结构、影响和预期风险分析的基础上,提出香港人民币离岸市场发展的政策建议。香港人民币离岸市场是促进人民币国际化的重要途径,但对人民币国际化进程以及目标的实现,只有促进作用而无决定作用。香港人民币离岸市场的功能定位体现在三个角度：其一,香港人民币离岸市场是创建和完善人民币外部循环体系的重要平台,是资本账户没有完全开放条件下,促进人民币国际化进程的重要方式。其二,香港人民币离岸市场的发展是人民币资本项目加速开放的重要诱因。其三,香港人民币离岸市场的发展是内地金融改革的实验田和催化剂。对其发展的政策建议主要涉及两个层面的四个问题,即自身建设层面的人民币离岸金融基础设施建设和离岸人民币利率市场化这两个问题；政策推动层面的离岸人民币回流机制以及人民币资本账户开放这两个问题。人民币离岸金融基础设施建设主要包括市场交易体系、支付结算体系和支持保障体系的建设。离岸人民币利率市场化是十分必要的,并通过离岸人民币资金池达到一定规模、建立和完善离岸人民币拆借市场、促进离岸人民币贷款与融资业务的发展、完善和发展离岸人民币投资市场以及逐步放松政策管制来逐步实现离岸人民币利率市场化。在离岸人民币回流渠道建设方面,继续推进人民币结算的回流渠道、进一步完善RQFII人民币回流渠道、继续发展境内银行间债券市场的人民币回流渠道以及积极探索其它的人民币回流渠道。同时,坚持发展的渐进性和监管的有效性。资本账户的开放是推动香港人民币离岸市场发展以及人民币国际化的重要手段,要审慎推进资本账户的开放,并通过对监管的认识、监管方式的完善、监管主体的参与,在管制逐渐放松过程中实现有效监管。更多还原

【Abstract】 The formation and development of CNH (the CNY Offshore Market in Hong Kong) is an important part of the strategy of the RMB internationalization. CNH is gradually formed under the Chinese government policy and it belongs to the local currency offshore financial markets. This paper is divided into seven parts:Section one is the introduction. It describes the background and significance of the research and the literature review. Then it points out the study methods and structural arrangement, the innovation and shortcoming of this paper.Section two summarizes the development and changes of the international offshore financial market after World War Ⅱ. The definition basis of offshore financial evolves into the separation of inside and outside of the financial regulatory system or the financial operation system from the frontier or border. Division of the offshore financial market types from the different angles, including the way of formation, the type of currency. From the point of view of the relationship between the transaction currency and the market location, offshore finance can be divided into local currency offshore financial and foreign currency offshore financial. The operation and regulation mode and the offshore interest rate system of international offshore financial market could provide the development experience for CNH.Section three discusses the background, the process and the particularity of CNH. The needs of the RMB internationalization strategy, the international financial situation such as the global offshore financial sustained growth trends and the favorable conditions of the environment and well-developed financial system of Hong Kong are the important background. From2003to2012, the process of building of CNH includes three phases: the infancy, the formation and the overall construction. The particularity of CNH reflects the aspects of the cause, the operation pattern and supervisory pattern.Section four discusses the structure of CNH. The growth rate of offshore RMB deposits will decline, and the proportion of RMB enterprise deposits in Hong Kong will continue to rise. The policy factors, the RMB expected appreciation and RMB backward channel are the important factors for the offshore RMB loan business. Offshore RMB deposit and lending interest rates will rise. The scale of offshore RMB bond will rise, its secondary market is expected to be rapid development and more mainland enterprises will come to Hong Kong to issue RMB bonds. The pricing mechanism of RMB offshore bonds will be improved. The development of offshore RMB stock market in Hong Kong is slow. Hong Kong’s offshore RMB spot and forward foreign exchange market is developing rapidly, but they are limited by the policy factors. Hong Kong’s offshore RMB products are including the offshore RMB financial derivative products and financial investment and financing products. The income of the offshore RMB products, the RMB exchange rate expectations and the related control policy are the important factors for the development of offshore RMB products market.Section five analyzes the affect of the formation and development of CNH. The offshore RMB exchange rate guides the onshore RMB exchange rate, mainly in the spot and short-term contracts. However, it is not a significant impact about the offshore RMB interest rate on the onshore RMB interest rate. The RMB backflow channel could significantly increase the size of the domestic money supply, but other channels could not, such as foreign-invested enterprises FDI and trade settlement by RMB. The development of CNH will enhance the position and strength of Hong Kong as an international financial center, and there is little possibility of RMB replacing to HK$. At the same time, the CNH will provide more opportunities of investment for the international financial market and will enhance position of RMB in the international monetary structure.Section six discusses the expected risk of CNH. The expected risk in CNH has two main causes which are the policy orientation and the market expectations. The difference between offshore and onshore price is an important reason for the expected risk of the policy orientation. The expected appreciation of RMB is more important for CNH, but it can cause some risk. The risk of CNH includes the risk of speculative arbitrage, the risk of short-term cross-border capital flows, the drop of the monetary policy effectiveness, the risk of the refinancing game and the other risks in the process of building CNH. The basic idea of preventing the risk of CNH includes the reducing the differences between the offshore and onshore price, promoting the deepening of the mainland market-oriented interest rate and exchange rate formation mechanism reform, strengthening the monitoring mechanism and improving the market risk management.Section seven proposes the policy and suggestion for the development of CNH. CNH is an important way to promote the internationalization of the RMB, but it does not play a decisive role. The functional position of CNH reflects in three aspects: First, CNH is an important platform for creating and improving the RMB external circulation system promoting the process of internationalization of the RMB. Second, CNH is an important incentive to accelerate the opening of the RMB capital account. Third, CNH is an experimental field of the Mainland’s financial reform. The policy and suggestion mainly involves two levels of four questions, they are the offshore financial infrastructure construction, the offshore RMB interest rate system, the RMB backflow mechanism and RMB capital account opening up. The offshore infrastructure construction includes the market trading system, the payment and settlement systems, the support and the security system. Offshore RMB interest rate market is very necessary. For the offshore RMB backflow channel construction, it should continue to promote the RMB settled, RQFII, the inter-bank bond market and other backflow channels. At the same time, the capital account openness is an important mean to promote the development of CNH and internationalization of the RMB. It could achieve the effective supervision by understanding of the regulation, the improving of the regulatory approach and the participation of the regulatory body.更多还原