【作者】 王可强；

【导师】 毛健；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 政治经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着改革开放的深入，中国经济保持了较快的增长势头，21世纪第一个10年，中国充分利用了和平发展和经济全球化的机遇期，在经济发展、社会进步等多方面取得了显著成效。但同样不能忽视的是，中国经济快速发展的代价也十分沉重，同样是在这十年间，中国的能源消费、二氧化碳排放占全球比例都大幅度攀升，对环境容量和能源安全提出了非常严重的挑战，同时能源安全和经济安全也受到了巨大的威胁。在这一背景下，中国发展低碳经济、实现低碳发展已经不再是一种可有可无的发展理念，而是一种带有强制性的需求。本文对这一问题的分析始于对产业、产业结构和低碳经济的界定和解释。通常产业被定义为生产相同或相似产品的大量企业的集合，这些企业大多使用相同的主要投入要素和原材料，采用相同或者相似的工业过程，生产基本用途相同的产品。产业结构自然就是不同产业之间的数量关系和比例结构。而低碳经济则是一种低能耗、低污染、低排放的经济模式，是与传统工业高能耗、高污染、高排放相对立的增长方式和发展模式，是人类社会经济发展到一定阶段的产物。产业结构与低碳经济的关联是本文研究的一个重点，要实现低碳经济，就必须调整和改变产业结构。事实上这一观点在经济学中已经得到了相当长时间的研究。产业结构有其自身的发展规律，经过威廉配第，到克拉克、库兹涅茨、钱纳里、筱原三代平、小岛清等多位学者的不懈努力，有关产业结构发展具有一般意义的规律已经被我们所掌握。但是，随着经济的发展，资源环境和气候问题已经越来越明显制约了经济的进一步发展。本文所重点强调的重要观点之一，是按照可持续发展的要求，像中国这样的发展中国家，不能走发达国家先排放、后治理的路径，而必须在发展的过程中边发展、边治理，实现低碳发展。对于中国和中国经济发展的现状而言，低碳发展有着特别的含义。尽管中国也要发展低碳经济，向低碳社会转型，但是由于发展的起点和外部环境等方面存在诸多差异，中国的低碳发展将必然走上一条与发达国家不同的道路。现有的发达国家提出低碳经济的时机，多是在这些国家早已完成工业化和城市化进程，进入了后工业化时代之后，这些国家已经拥有了较强的综合国力，人均收入较高且享有相当水平的福利。尽管在发展的过程中存在诸如“先发展、后减排；先高碳、后低碳”的问题，但是其国力足以支撑这种经济发展方式的转型。有些国家在推动低碳经济中甚至还掺有恢复本国经济发展、脱离经济危机的目的。概而言之，发达国家的低碳经济路径是“先发展，后低碳”。为了实现中国的低碳发展，参考他国的发展经验是非常必要的。总体而言，发达国家和一些新兴经济体在发展低碳经济方面的经验包括：首先，根据本国自身的资源禀赋、技术条件、排放特征等选择适宜本国发展的低碳技术或模式，针对本国未来发展中可能遭遇到的瓶颈或者危机进行预先谋划，并有针对性地进行调整和准备；其次，由于向低碳经济转型要求人为地对产业结构进行干预和调整，因此需要有一种专门的力量起推动和监督作用，政府在这方面有天然的优势，因此必须发挥主导作用，这一点已经被多国发展的历史所验证；除此而外，一些相关的具体政策措施，包括与低碳经济相关的财政政策、金融支持以及产业政策和对微观经济主体的引导和推动，也是推动低碳经济发展的重要经验。与发达国家相比较，中国的产业结构受能源结构、工业化进程以及城市化进程等的影响，因此我们不能脱离这些影响因素来理解中国产业结构和碳排放的历史、现实和未来趋势。仅仅以是否符合低碳经济发展需要为标准进行衡量，中国的产业结构中存在一些不利于降低碳排放的因素，如具有刚性特征的产业结构、与碳排放降低要求相矛盾的部分财政制度安排和相对弱化的低碳竞争力。为此，本文从长期着眼，试图构建一个完整的、在长期中能够充分发挥作用并尽可能确保低碳经济实现的政策体系。这个体系中应该包括一个总量适当、结构合理、有利于低碳产品增长和推广的消费结构、一个能为低碳经济发展源源不断地提供技术支持的低碳技术政策体系，以及一组推动、支持和辅助各微观主体转向低碳经济并持续采用低碳生产方式的财政政策和金融政策体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 With China’s Reform and Opening-up, China has experienced a quick economicgrowth for quite a long time. And in the first decade of 21st century, China fullyutilize a strategic opportunity to achieve advantages in both economic developmentand social progress. But the price for all these achievements cannot be negelected.During the same time, China’s consumption of energy and emission of CO2have bothincreased dramatically, which leads China’s energy and economic security to a verydangerous situation. Thus, the development of low-carbon economy is now theoptimal way and the only way for China to maintain economic growth.The cause of these problems lies in China’s industrial structure. Among agriculture,industry and service, the industry has a absolutely dominant situation over the othertwo. And in the industry, energy and raw materials occupy most of the renevue. Inrecent years, the high-tec industry grows fast, but did not realize higher technologylevel or additional value.The analysis of this paper begins with the difinitions of industry, industrystructure and low-carbon economy. The industry has been difined as a collection ofenterprises producing the same or similar products who share common input, rawmaterials and the same technology. Industry structure is the quantity and relative ratioof different industries. Low-carbon economy, as most people agreed, is a fully neweconomic developing method with the character of low energy consumption, lowpollution and low emission. It is the output of development of human society.The relationship between indutrial structure and low-carbon economy is theemphasis of this paper, which lies in that the change and upgrade of industrialstructure is essencial for the realzation of low-carbon economy. In fact, this topic hasbeen discussed in economy for quite a long time. The basic law of industrial structurechange has been discovered, with the efforts from William Petty, Clark, Kuznets,Chenery and other famous economists. But with the restraints from resources, climate,tightened, those classical laws of industrial structure must be modified before they canbe applied in today’s economic analysis. Those developing countries like China, cannont follow the developed countries’path of“emission first, control later”. Theonly way for them is to achieve development with pollution and emission control.Despite the differeces between the developed and developing countries, theexperiences from those developed can still provide useful insight and enlightment forthose developing. First, considering the complication and variety of low-carbontechnology, it is not possible or necessary to acquire all the technologies. It is optimalto develop technologies according to real situation and demand both for now and thefuture. Second, the governments, as a large and powerful force, should take activeactions in the process, pushing and monitoring. Third, a comprehensive system ofpolicies should be in place, including fiscal policy, financial support, industrial policyand guide and education for microeconomic agents.As to China, the history and trend of China’s industrial structure are deeplyaffected by China’s energy structure, the process of industrialization and urbenization.Thus there are many factors in China’s economy that block the way to low-carboneconomy for China, such as rigidity of industrial structure, adverse fiscal policies andlack of low-carbon competence. According to these, a whole system of politicalmeasures has been developed in this paper, including an outer circumstance suitablefor China’s low-carbon transformation, a consumption structure with proper quantity,a low-carbon technology strategy providing low-carbon technology as demanded, andfiscal and financial policies supporting microeconomic agents to adopt and utilizelow-carbon technologies and produce low-carbon products.更多还原