【作者】 徐晓明；

【导师】 徐传谌；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 房地产行业在目前中国国民经济发展中，占据非常重要的战略地位。房地产行业肩负着国民经济发展以及解决住房的民生问题这双重责任和要务。多年来，中国的房地产行业一直在市场发展机制和宏观调控政策中蹒跚前进，行业的变化起伏不定，最终形成相对稳健的行业走势。但是，由于宏观经济的波动，给房地产行业、市场及政策指导带来诸多的不稳定性和风险性，房地产行业的快速发展也带来了房地产市场供求失衡、房地产经济与国民经济发展不协调等问题，因此，进行房地产的行业风险分析研究显得尤为重要，在对其行业风险分析的理论研究基础上，辅以目前市场上出现的房地产行业风险的热点与难点，预测并识别目前中国房地产行业中客观存在的风险因素，从而找到防范或规避这些风险的解决思路和有效途径。房地产行业风险分析主要是指房地产企业在有目的、有意识地通过计划、组织、实施和控制等一系列市场活动过程中，对其可能出现和产生风险的因素，进行预测与识别，防范与处理，以最小的成本谋求最大保障的一个系统、动态的过程，包括风险预测与识别、风险分析、风险防范与风险处理四个实质性阶段。进行房地产行业风险分析，根本上讲，是要对影响房地产行业收益环节中各个因素的变化以及对收益的影响进行分析，或者说对房地产企业投资开发经营等一系列经济活动的可靠性进行检验，从而测定其中所存在的风险性。认识房地产行业风险，明确导致风险的因素，并进行有效的控制与管理，从而有助于房地产企业效益的提高，减少或避免不必要的风险损失。目前，国内对房地产行业风险分析的研究还仅仅局限在于房地产企业在开发活动中的某些环节上，例如主要是在房地产项目开发、房地产投资、房地产销售、房地产金融等单一方面风险的识别、防范上，还没有从房地产全行业整体发展上来系统关注风险可能发生的全过程，定性分析和经验决策仍是进行房地产行业风险分析中的常用方法，定量分析有所应用，但不能很好反映风险的本质，决策失误的现象大量存在。影响房地产行业风险的不确定因素很多，既有来自房地产行业发展本身，也有来自于周围的环境条件，甚至还有市场信息的不对称性、人们观念和认识的滞后性、财务管理的局限性，乃至来自大自然的灾害等。为了有效的防范和管理房地产行业风险，使我国房地产行业在国民经济中得到长足、稳定的可持续发展，促进房地产经济与宏观经济协调发展，我们必须对房地产以及相关行业风险进行深入、系统的分析研究，从而为在今后建立相对系统完善的房地产行业风险预警体系，有着十分重要的战略意义。本论文研究目的就是，把房地产行业风险分析的理论研究同房地产行业发展的市场实践相结合，预测、识别、分析、处理房地产行业中可能发生的风险，例如对房地产行业内的项目风险、市场风险、金融风险、政策风险、衍生风险等进行了系统的归纳与总结，对风险预测、风险识别、风险防范、风险处理与风险决策进行可行性探讨，进而对防范我国房地产行业风险提出建设性与可行性的对策和建议，为我国房地产企业立足市场，面对市场竞争提供风险分析理论依据和实践指导，促进我国房地产行业稳定、健康、持续的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real Estate in China’s national economy has a very important position, whichcarrying the dual responsibility of national economic development and solving thehousing problems. Therefore, real estate in the current Chinese economic sectorsoccupies a very important strategic position. Over the years, China’s real estateindustry has been hobbled forward market development and regulatory policies,changes in the industry ups and downs temporarily form a relatively stable industrytrends. Industry, market and policy possess instability and risk. Therefore, the study ofreal estate industry risk is very reasonable and important. Theoretical study andanalysis, supplemented by the risk of the real estate industry, which has appeared onthe market in the past, become a reasonable way to identify the risk of the currentChinese real estate industry, and find solutions or risk-averse solution ideas and paths.The real estate industryrisk analysis is a dynamic process and a systemic projectwhich aim to control, prevent, treat the risks to seek maximum protection andminimize the cost. The real estate industryrisk analysis is done by real estateenterprises by plan, organize,implement and control a series of marketing activities,including risk identification, risk analysis, risk prevention and risk management of thefour substantive stages.At present, the domestic real estate industry risk analysis is mainly focusing onthe risk identification, prevention during the process of forming investment decisions,and not concerned about the risk in the real estate industry in the development process.Qualitative analysis and experience in decision-making is still the commonly usedmethod for the real estate industry risk analysis. Quantitative analysis of someapplications, but not well reflect the nature of the risk, the policy mistakes of thephenomenon there are a lot. Many uncertainties can affect the real estate industry risk, which include the realestate industry itself, the surrounding environmental conditions, and even awareness ofthe lag, financial management controllability limitations, and even to from naturaldisasters and so on.Fundamentally, the risk analysis of the real estate industry is to analyze thevarious factors that affect the effectiveness of the real estate industry, in another word,is to examine the reliability of the real estate business investment to determine the riskof entire real estate industry. Understanding of the real estate industry risk, andclarifying and controlling the real causes of the risk, are the key steps to theimprovement of the real estate business efficiency, reduce or avoid the unnecessaryrisk of loss.The purpose of this thesis is by combining the real estate industry risk analysiswith the development of the real estate industry practice, to analysis and study the riskthat exist in the real estate industry, risk analysis, risk prevention and treatment, riskdecision-making, and thus propose the strategies to prevent the real estate industry riskbased on the market for our real estate business, in the face of global competition toprovide a theoretical basis and practical guidance to promote the stability of China’sreal estate industry, health and sustainable development.更多还原