【作者】 徐田坤；

【导师】 梁青槐；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 城市轨道工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 安全是城市轨道交通运营的生命线,是永恒的主题。随着我国城市轨道交通快速发展,运营里程不断增加,线网规模不断扩大,网络化效应日益凸显,城市轨道交通已经进入了网络化运营时代。城市轨道交通网络化运营对风险管理的需求已经从“事后分析型、被动型”发展到“事前预防型、主动型”阶段,由经验管理转向现代系统安全风险管理阶段。由于城市轨道交通网络化运营涉及到人员、设备设施、环境、管理等方面,风险源日趋增多,风险的形成也日益复杂,对安全管理工作提出了更高的要求。近年来城市轨道交通运营事故时有发生,我国城市轨道交通运营安全形势不容乐观,安全运营已成为全社会关注的焦点和热点。因此,对影响城市轨道交通网络化运营安全风险因素作用的机理、发展、演变等规律进行研究,加强安全风险评估,对风险因素的安全状态进行全面、准确、动态把控,以便更好制定有效的控制和管理策略,使之处于可控状态,保证城市轨道交通运营安全性和可靠性,预防及减少运营事故的发生,降低事故造成人员伤亡和财产损失,促进城市轨道交通安全高效运行具有十分重要的意义和应用价值。本论文研究工作主要有如下几个方面：1.分析了城市轨道交通网络化运营特性并对突发事件下网络化运营客流传播规律进行了研究分析了城市轨道交通网络化运营特点,如网络规模性、网络关联性、网络交叉性、网络放大效应等；通过对日本、韩国、北京、上海、广州等城市网络客流形成过程进行分析,得出网络化客流增长规律；根据北京网络客流统计分析,得出网络客流的时间、空间分布规律以及突发事件条件下网络客流传播机理以及传播规律。2.分析了城市轨道交通运营事故特点及风险影响因素,建立了运营事故影响因素的ISM模型。通过对国内外城市轨道交通运营事故的统计分析,探索了运营事故发生规律如事故类型、原因以及时间、空间、延误、事故等级等分布规律。对影响运营安全的人为因素、设备设施因素、环境因素、管理因素进行深刻剖析,找出影响运营安全风险因素的致因机理及各因素之间的复杂关联性,在此基础上,运用解释结构模型方法,构建了运营事故影响因素的ISM模型。从众多影响运营安全风险因素及其复杂因素链中,揭示了影响城市轨道交通运营安全的直接影响因素、间接影响因素以及深层次影响因素。3.构建了基于6σ-理论的城市轨道交通单因素多属性安全风险评估模型针对影响城市轨道交通运营安全风险因素复杂性、非线性和模糊性等特点,根据风险因素属性不同,将反映风险因素特征的属性划分为动态和静态风险因子,构建了动态与静态相结合的安全风险评价指标体系；以6σ理论、欧几里德距离公式方法、坐标组合法为基础,构建了基于6σ理论的城市轨道交通单因素多属性安全风险评价模型。实证分析结果显示,该模型能够得到更为客观、全面、准确反映城市轨道交通运营风险因素总体安全风险水平的评价结果。4.建立了基于可拓理论的城市轨道交通网络化运营多因素综合安全评估模型将影响城市轨道交通网络化运营安全风险因素划分为网络安全因素、人员因素、设备设施因素、环境因素、管理因素五大类,建立了网络化运营综合安全风险评估指标估系,考虑到城市轨道交通运营安全风险因素的状态在不断变化,本文将可拓理论、层次分析法、熵权法等理论与方法相结合,建立了基于可拓理论的城市轨道交通网络化运营多因素综合安全评估模型。该模型可以对整个评价对象、单个指标分别进行安全评价,判断其所处的安全状态,为制定相应有效的控制措施提供参考依据,最后以北京地铁运营公司为例对综合安全风险评估模型的有效性、准确性、可靠性、可操作性等进行了实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety is the lifeline of urban rail transit and eternal theme. With the rapid development of the rail transit in our domestic city, the operating mileage and the scale of network increases ceaselessly, and network effect is markedly increased, so that the rail transportation has entered the era of network operation. The demand of urban rail transit network operation for risk management has evolved from" post hoc analysis type, passive type" to " Beforehand prevention type, active type" stage, that mean from experience management to the modern system safety risk management stage, because of urban rail transit network operation involving personnel, facilities, environment, management and so on, risk sources are increasing day by day, and the form of risk is more and more complicated, the requirement of safety management is at higher level. In recent years, the rail transit operation accidents happened frequently, explaining that our domenstic city track traffic operation safety situation is not optimistic, and safe operation has become the social focus and hot point. Therefore, the research on the impact of urban rail transit network operation safety risk factors, mechanism, development and evolution law, strengthening the rail transit network operation safety risk assessment study contributes to control the safety state comprehensively, accurately and dynamically, in order to find out better develop effective control and management strategy, which makes it under control, and ensures the city track traffic operation safety and reliability of operation, prevents and reduces accidents, reducing accidents caused casualties and property losses, has very important significance and application value. The research work of this thesis is mainly the following aspects:1. Analyzing the urban rail network operation characteristics and study the passenger flow propagation laws in emergencyAnalyze rail transit network operation characteristics, such as network size, network connection, and network cross, network amplification effect. Through analyzing of the passenger flow forms in Japan, Korea, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities, obtain the network passenger flow growth law. According to the Beijing network traffic statistics analysis, obtains the network passenger flow by time, spatial distribution and emergency conditions network passenger flow propagation mechanism and propagation.2. Analyzing occurrence rules of accidents and cause mechanization of risk factors, then build the operational accident cause ISM model.Through the analyzing of the accidents in our country and abroad, explores the occurrence rules of operation accidents, such as accident types, reasons and regularity of distribution by time, space, delay, and accident grades. By analyzing the anthropic factor, facility factor, environment factor, management factor that effect operation safety, and then find out the inherent relations among each cause mechanizations. Based on these, use ISM to analyze the inherent relations and laws among each factor, and find out the structure hierarchical level and the direct, remote and deep influencing factors.3. Build a single factor multi-attribute security risk evaluation model based on six sigma theory for urban rail transit.According to the complex, nonlinear, fuzzy and so on characteristics of security-risk factors that affect the urban rail transit’s operation, and according to different attributes of the risk factors, we divide the attributes that reflect the risk factor’s characteristics into dynamic and static risk factors, and build the safety risk assessment model which is the combination of dynamic and states. Based on six sigma theory, formula of Euclid’s distance, combinatorial coordinates method, we also build a single factor multi-attribute security risk evaluation model based on six sigma theory for urban rail transit. The empirical analysis shows that the model can get a more objective, precise and comprehensive evaluate result that reflects the security risk level of urban rail transit’s overall safety risk level.4. Build a multifactor and comprehensive urban rail transit network operation model of risk assessment based on extension theory.We divide the impact of urban rail transit network operation safety risk factors that affect the network operation of urban rail transit into five broad areas:network safety factors, human factor, equipment and facilities factors, environment factors and management factors, so we build a scientific and reasonable network operation security risk evaluation indices. Besides, this paper combines extension theory, analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and other methods, building a multifactor with comprehensive safety assessment model of urban rail transit network operation based on extension theory. This model can respectively evaluate the whole system, local system or single factor index, and judge its security state and make corresponding effective control measures according to security state. And the last, making the Beijing Subway Operation Company as the example, this paper carry out the demonstration on the models and theories’effectiveness, accuracy, reliability, maneuverability.更多还原