【作者】 张迦南；

【导师】 赵鹏；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 区域交通需求的快速增长需要新增大量交通基础设施,新技术的应用改变了各种运输方式的客运产品特征,综合运输通道客运市场竞争在更广范围和更深层次展开,通道的客运需求结构也将在时间和空间两个方面呈现新的均衡。深入分析中长距离旅客出行行为影响因素和变化规律,动态研究综合运输通道客运系统内部运行机理和外部表现,形成能够分析综合运输通道客运需求结构均衡状态、客运供给与需求结构互动规律的方法论,有利于加强综合运输通道基础设施建设的科学性、客运产品设计的合理性以及运输方式之间的协调性。在对比城市交通需求和区域交通需求、城市交通网络和区域交通网络特点的基础上,论证区域交通规划的特殊性以及建立和发展区域交通规划理论的必要性。从时间和空间两方面对综合运输通道客运需求与供给结构现状进行深入分析,根据综合运输通道客运系统的特点及发展方向,界定综合运输通道客运供给结构相关概念,并对其内涵进行全面阐释。在此基础上,提出综合运输通道客运供给结构规划的原则、目标及核心任务,丰富并完善综合运输通道规划理论。针对综合运输通道旅客出行距离长、频率低的特点,基于选择方案抽样法进行调查问卷设计。分析中长距离旅客出行选择影响因素,根据非集计理论构建综合运输通道旅客选择行为模型并标定参数。研究综合运输通道客运需求结构的时空分布,模拟旅客对客运产品的选择行为随出发时间和出行距离的变化情况,得到各时间段中长、中短运距条件下综合运输通道客运需求结构,分析各种典型客运产品的优势距离范围。研究竞争条件下综合运输通道客运市场均衡状态预测方法。依据区域交通网络需求特征,构建双层结构博弈模型分析市场内部运行机理。上层是运输方式间的完全信息动态博弈,下层为各类旅客的广义纳什博弈,模型表现票价、服务频率以及运输工具定员等决策变量对运输方式成本、收益及旅客效用的影响,同时反映旅客决策对运输方式策略调整的作用。算法以最优化理论为基础求解上层博弈的纳什均衡,并将下层博弈等价为一个变分不等式,用对角化算法得到其广义纳什均衡,最后通过迭代算法得到整个模型的近似均衡。最后以京沪运输通道为例进行客运产品和基础设施结构规划。分别计算对中长途和短途客运市场均衡状态,应用情景分析法模拟高速铁路运营对通道客运市场的影响。结果表明京一沪间高速铁路运营将使旅客出行总成本降低,尤其对时间价值较高的旅客；模型较好地模拟运输方式与出行者相互作用的动态过程,为区域交通规划及设计运输产品提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid growth of regional transport demand needs to add a large number of infrastructures, application of new technology to change the features of transport modes’passenger products, competition of comprehensive transportation corridor passenger market is performing in wider range and deeper expansion, corridor’s passenger transport demand structure will presents the new equilibrium in time and space two aspects. In depth analysis of the influence factors and regularity of long distance passenger travel behavior and the relationship of transport operators and traveler, dynamic study of the comprehensive transportation corridor passenger system internal mechanism and external performance, forming the methodology which can analyse the equilibrium of comprehensive transportation corridor passenger transport demand structure and interaction regularity of passenger transport supply and demand structure, is conducive to strengthening the scientific of infrastructure construction, rationality of passenger transport products and the coordination of modes.On the basis of comparison of urban traffic demand and regional traffic demand, urban traffic network and the regional transportation network, proof the particularity of regional transportation planning and the necessity of developing the regional transportation planning theory. And this article in-depth analysis of current situation of comprehensive transportation corridor passenger supply and demand structure, defined related concepts about comprehensive transportation corridor passenger demand structure. On this foundation, put forward the principles, objectives and key tasks of comprehensive transportation corridor passenger transport supply structure planning, enriched and improved the comprehensive transport planning theory.For passengers in comprehensive transportation corridor have the characters of long travel distances and low frequency, the sampling methods based on alternatives was used in Revealed Preference and Stated Preference surveys. Analyzed influence factors of medium and long distance travel passengers’mode choice. According to the theory of disaggregate built a comprehensive transportation corridor passenger choice behavior model and complete the parameter calibration. The model analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of passengers’demand in comprehensive transportation corridors, simulated the change of passenger choice behavior with departure time and travel distance, gets the passengers’demand structure under the condition of long and short-distance in all time periods, and analyzed the advantages of various typical passenger products.The article studied the forecasting method of market equilibrium in regional passenger transport corridor under the conditions of competition. According to the demand characteristics of regional transport network, built a bi-level game model to simulate the internal operating mechanism of regional passenger transport corridor. Upper level is a complete information dynamic game between transport modes; lower level is a generalized Nash game for all types of traveler. The model demonstrated the impact of variables such as fare, service frequency and vehicle capacity to operation cost, benefit and traveler’s utility, reflecting affect of the traveler’s choice to the adjustment of transport modes. The algorithm solved the upper level game based on optimization theory and found the equilibrium of the lower level game by solving an equivalent variation inequality employing the diagonalization algorithm, then obtained the approximate equilibrium of the model by iteration.Case sdudy planned the supplying structure of passenger products and infrastructures in Beijing-Shanghai transport corridor. Calculated the equilibrium of medium and long distance and short distance passenger market, and simulated the impact of high-speed railway on passenger market in corridor. Case study of Beijing-Shanghai transport corridor shown the operation of high-speed rail can reduce the travel cost between Beijing and Shanghai, especially for the high-income travelers; the model can simulate the dynamic process of interaction between transport modes and travelers and provide the recommendations for regional transport planning and transportation products designing.更多还原