【作者】 张英；

【导师】 宋维明；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本研究以林权制度改革对集体林区的木材供给产生的影响作为研究对象,通过具体的分析林权制度改革对集体林区木材的供给能力和实际的木材产量带来的影响,来寻找林权制度改革与集体林区的木材供给之间的关系。首先,分析了影响木材供给的一般因素,在此基础上,加入林权制度改革因素和森林采伐限额制度对木材供给的讨论,进一步提出在林改和采伐限额制度共同作用下的集体林区木材供给假说：林权制度改革通过改变农户对林地的投入行为来增加用材林地的规模,提高长期的木材供给能力,森林采伐限额可能会阻碍农户对林地的投入,不利于长期木材供给能力的提高。通过数据的统计描述,发现林改后用材林的生产规模扩大,农户对用材林的投入增多,木材和竹材产量大幅度增加。其次,利用实地调查的集体林区8省村级数据,运用简单多元回归和似无关回归方程组,分析了林改对用材林林地的生产规模的影响,发现林改通过林业确权极大地促进了用材林生产规模的扩大,验证了林改促进了集体林区的木材供给能力。再次,利用江西省2005年和2010年两期的实地调查数据,运用LPM、Probit、Logit和Tobit模型分析了林改与农户对用材林投入行为之间的关系。通过研究农户用材林的投入决策和具体的投入行为,发现林业确权、发放林权证以及家庭经营的方式都极大地促进了林地投入,同时发现采伐限额会阻碍农户的投入行为。最后,利用江西省2005年和2010年的村表和户表数据,统计分析了农户采伐的自主权利的变化,认为森林采伐限额制度对农户木材采伐有限制,但是对竹材采伐已无影响。同时,使用江西省两期的调查数据,运用Probit模型分析了农户拥有的各项林权、发放林权证的比例以及家庭自营的林地面积比对农户木材和竹材的采伐决策产生的影响,在此基础上,进一步运用FE和RE方法分析了林改确权、发放林权证以及家庭经营方式是否会影响农户木材采伐量和竹材采伐量,发现林改确实促进了实际的木材产量和竹材产量,农户对林地经营的自主权越大,越倾向于用材林的经营,而林下资源的使用权会延迟农户的木材采伐。通过理论推演与实证分析,本文得出以下结论：(1)新一轮林权制度改革的林业确权,促进了集体林区森林资源的丰度,提高了长期的木材供给能力,同时也增加了集体林区木材和竹材的采伐量。包括使用权、流转权、抵押权、采伐权等在内的农户拥有的总权利对用材林面积和蓄积产生了正向影响,同时对木材和竹材的采伐量也产生了正向影响。(2)流转权对于促进森林资源增长的作用非常明显；抵押权可以促进人工林蓄积量的增长；林下资源的使用权利促进农户对林地的投入同时延迟木材采伐的时间,拓宽了林业的经济收入来源,保障了森林生态效益的发挥。农户拥有的权利越大,进行理性林地经营决策的可能性就越大。(3)用材林的家庭自营方式可以促进农户对林地的投入,但是却不利于木材采伐量的增加。这也许说明了以家庭为单位的林业经营效率不高,表现出对专业技术指导的需求。(4)通过林权流转实现林地规模经营是改善林业经营效率低,林地生产力低,实现用材林规模经营的最优手段。(5)家庭的内部劳动力配置会影响竹材的采伐决策。基于本文的理论分析与实证分析,提出深化林权改革的制度与政策：(1)改革采伐限额制度,扩大农户自主采伐的权利；(2)完善林业补贴政策,提高荒山造林补贴；(3)林农资源使用权的明晰与保障；(4)实现森林资源的综合利用；(5)促进林权抵押贷款制度的改革；(6)完善林地林木流转政策；(7)推广新型林木生产模式和供给模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation mainly focuses on the effect of collective forest tenure reform in china on timber supply in collective forest areas. By analyzing the definite effects of forest tenure reform on timber supply capacity and on the actual timber production relatively, I attempt to test the story whether the collective forest tenure reform can contribute to promote forest timber supply in collective forest areas and enhance the country’s domestic wood supply capacity.Firstly, this paper analyzes the general factors that affect the timber supply. Based on this, I add the general analytical Faustsmann frame with other interesting factors, including the collective forest tenure reform factors and the forest cutting quota system factors, in order to further discuss about the timber supply. By analyzing the different timber-rotation standards which determine the different corresponding wood-cutting times before and after the forest tenure reform, it is revealed that, based on some arguably reasonable assumptions, the timber harvesting time tend to be in advance after the tenure reform, attributing to an increase of short-term timber supply, while the existence of the forest cutting quota system dramatically limits the increase of short-term timber volume. After theoretical inference, a hypothesis has been given:Forest tenure reform indirectly attributes to the increase the forest resources by directly changing behaviors of farmers’ investment in forest land, thereby enhancing the long-term wood supply capacity. On the other hand, forest cutting quota may hinder the farmers’ investment and is not conducive to the improvement of the long-term wood supply capacity. This paper uses the methods of statistical description and empirical strategies to analyze the changes before and after the forest tenure reform, including the changes of size and volume of forest resources, timber-land investment changes and timber output changes.Secondly, based on the survey of provincial (8 province of collective forest area) and village level data (Jiangxi province), this paper use OLS and SUR to demonstrate the effect of forestry tenure right index on the size and volume of whole forest, timber and artificial forest, respectively. It has been proved to be a positive correlation between the forestry tenure rights and the timber size and volume, which tests the fact that the forest tenure reform can greatly promote the increase of the forest stock volume, thereby increasing the supply capacity of the collective forest timber.Thirdly, based on the survey data of Jiangxi province in 2005 and 2010, this paper use LPM, Probit, Logit and Tobit model to investigate the timber land input derived from farmers. By relatively studying the farmers’decisions and behaviors, it has been revealed that several factors, such as tenure rights, forest certification as well as self management, will motivate the farmer’s input, while other factors, such as forest cutting quota, will counteract the input motivation.Finally, based on the village-level and household-level data, I also make an elaborate summary statistical analysis of the changes about forest quota index across time. It has been shown that, at least in our sample villages, the existent forest cutting restriction system still limit the timber harvesting for farmers, but the bamboo harvesting is no longer restricted in practice. At the same time, based on the two-period data of Jiangxi Province, I take use of Probit model to analyze the impact of farmer-owned forest tenure right index, the proportion of forest-land certification and the proportion of self-manage timber land on wood and bamboo harvesting decisions. In further, I use FE and RE models to investigate whether all these factors would equally affect the farmer’s cutting behaviors in practice, not merely the decisions. I found that the collective forest reform do promote the actual timber production and bamboo yield, the greater the autonomy of the farmers woodland operation, the more likely the operation of the timber, while with the under-forest right of using non-timber resources, farmers will delay timber harvesting, and forest cutting quota system, at the same time, has never been tested any significant effect on the specific amount of timber harvesting. On the basis of empirical research, alternative policies of changing the farmer’s timber harvesting decision-making and logging practices may reasonably be:to protect the integrity of the long-term stability of the timber forest rights, to promote family-run bamboo mode.更多还原