【作者】 吕连宏；

【导师】 张征；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 生态学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 我国工业化和城镇化快速发展导致生态破坏和环境污染形势十分严峻,特别是酸雨、灰霾和光化学烟雾等区域性大气污染问题,已成为制约区域经济持续发展的重要因素。电力行业特别是火电行业是我国大气污染物排放的重要来源,如何实现经济与环境,电力与环境的协调发展,是生态学与环境科学研究领域亟待解决的重要问题。本研究首次提出了电力生态系统的基本理论,以广东省为案例,分析了广东省电力、环：境、经济子系统的发育特征,以计量经济学方法和大气环境质量模式给出了广东省电力与经济、电力与环境的定量关系,构建了广东省电力生态系统协调评价方法并予以应用,采用定性和定量结合的方法研究了广东省电力发展的优化方案,并提出了广东省电力生态系统调控政策。本研究的主要结论如下：(1)电力生态系统是以电力生产和消费链条为核心,以电力相关的社会经济活动为重要内容的人类社会生态系统。电力生态系统是由电力、环境与经济三个子系统相互影响、相互作用而形成的复合生态系统,存在着从无序向有序的自组织演化过程。(2)1978至2010年间,广东省经济子系统的发展是推动电力子系统发展的原因,反之则不成立,适当抑制电力子系统过快发展不一定会抑制广东省经济子系统的发展；电力消费量与经济发展存在长期稳定的数量关系,当地区生产总值和工业总产值分别增长1个单位时,电力消费量将分别增长0.97和0.64个单位。(3)相比2006年,2009年广东省电力行业主要污染物排放量有所下降,但依然是大气污染物排放的主要来源之一；2009年,电力行业对广东省大气污染物浓度的分布影响不大,电力贡献浓度的高值区主要集中在珠三角地区的排放源附近区域,电力行业不是影响大气环境质量最主要的原因。(4)2000至2010年间,广东省电力生态系统的协调度呈现以2004年为最低点,广东省电力生态系统正处于从无序向有序波动演化的过程中。(5)燃煤火电依然是广东省未来电力发展的主要类型,应重点布局在东西两翼的沿海地区,在不同的经济增长速度下,燃煤火电装机容量在“十二五”和“十三五”期间的最大量分别是1722-1784万kW和1906-2801万kW。(6)研究提出的两个电力发展优化情景优于基准情景,建议经济增长速度为8%时依优化情景1发展,当经济增长速度达到10%时依优化情景2发展,并从电力了系统和环境子系统两个层面加强对电力生态系统的调控。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to the rapid pace of urbanization and industrialization, the ecological cost and environmental contamination in China has reached a critical level. Particularly regional air pollution problems like acid rain, dusty haze and photochemical smog have already become a key factor holding back the development of region’s sustainable economic growth. Power industry, especially thermal power industry contributes a large ratio of air pollutants that released in to the environment. How to achieve the goal of reconciling development of electricity and economy with the environment is a vital problem to be resolved for ecologist and environmentalist.In this paper, the basic theory of electricity ecosystem was first put forward, and taking Guangdong province as a case, the growth feature of electricity, environment and economy subsystem has been analyzed. The econometrics method and the quality of atmospheric environment model have been utilized to analyze the quantitative relation of electricity subsystem and economy subsystem. An evaluation method for coordinating electricity ecosystem has been built and applied. An optimization solution for development of power industry in Guangdong Province has been proposed by using the qualitative and quantitative methods, and advices have been provided on adjusting electricity ecosystem policies.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Taking the electricity production, consumption chain as the core and the social economic activities related to electricity as the important content. Electricity ecosystem is a human social ecosystem. Electricity ecosystem that turned itself to the ordered states from the disordered states is a complex system that formed in the interactions among electricity, environment and economy.(2) From1978to2010, the growth of gross domestic product and total industrial output value is the driving factor of the growth of total electricity consumption, but not vice versa. Proper inhibiting excess development of electricity consumption might not prevent the growth of economy development. There is a long-term and stable relationship between electricity consumption and economy development, when gross domestic product and industrial gross output value grows1unit separately, the electricity consumption of the whole province will increase0.97and0.64unit respectively.(3) Compared to2006, both the emission amount of air pollutants and proportion of the total emission of power industry in Guangdong province have different degrees of decline in2009. but power industry is still one of the main sources of air pollutants emission in Guangdong province. Power industry has slightly impact on air pollutants concentration distribution in2009, power industry is the main reason of environment degradation. (4) From2000to2010, the process of Guangdong electricity ecosystem is decreasing firstly and then rising steadily, the nadir is in2004. This ecosystem is turning itself to the ordered states from the disordered states.(5) In the future, coal thermal power plant still plays a significant role in the power plant development. Coal thermal power plant should be distributed mainly in the coastal areas of the east and west wings. Under different economic growth rate, the coal thermal power capacity will top17,220-17,840megawatts and19,060-28,010megawatts during the12th Five-Year Plan period and the13th Five-Year Plan period.(6) The thermal power plant in Guangdong province should be constructed based on optimized scenario put forward in this paper. If economic growth rate reaches8percent, the1st optimized scenario should be applied, the2nd optimized scenario will be used if reaches10percent. The electricity ecosystem adjusting policies should be perfected by electricity subsystem and environment subsystem.更多还原