【作者】 陈愉瑜；

【导师】 赵伟；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 中国对外贸易以往三十多年的快速发展并由贸易小国迅速变为贸易大国的跳跃式扩张,得益于一系列按照时间序列展开与叠加的因素。早期几乎完全仰仗有限的体制改革和限于特区的引进外资,后来是整个沿海地区的对外开放,再后来是“入世”与履行“入世”承诺的全方位对外开放,最后则是企业“走出去”与外向直接投资(ODI)。这些因素相继成为围绕中国外贸扩张研究的热点论题。最近的热点论题之一,无疑是0DI对于外贸发展的效应。ODI与外贸扩张原本是国际经济学的一个老论题,但已有研究存在两个明显的偏向：一个是有关理论几乎完全基于发达工业化国家以往的现实提出,鲜有基于新兴市场经济体的理论。另一个是大多围绕着ODI与贸易的互补抑或替代关系展开,而忽略了此类效应作用的机理以及别的贸易效应,尤其是贸易结构效应与贸易条件效应。本文主旨,就在于从新兴市场经济体ODI所具有的特点出发,以中国现实数据为依据,分析ODI在中国贸易规模、贸易结构与贸易条件动态演化中的系列效应。机理分析方面,本文从资本流动与母国贸易的关系切入,通过对Mundell模型从小国模型到大国模型的扩展,刻画了资本流动对母国贸易条件变化的作用机理。考虑到ODI流动中企业决策的核心地位,故从跨国公司利润最大化目标的假定出发,构建了反映ODI母国贸易效应的理论模型,分析了ODI对母国贸易替代效应或互补效应的作用机理。在此基础上引出三个实证命题,分别围绕ODI-贸易数量动态变化、ODI-贸易结构动态变化以及ODI-贸易条件动态变化展开。实证检验以机理分析为基础,以中国ODI扩展现实为线索及依据,构建了一个实证检验模型,引入UNCTAD和WTO数据分别对中国ODI的贸易规模效应、贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应进行了实证检验。其中,围绕第一个命题的实证检验证明,中国ODI存量与流量都对外贸规模产生了明显的影响,且存量对外贸规模的影响大于流量。具体而言,从1982年到2010年,ODI的贸易规模效应最为明显,ODI存量促进了货物贸易和服务贸易进出口规模的全面扩张；但从2005至2010年中国ODI的地区分布看,ODI对货物出口的影响存在着一定差异,符合“中国式”ODI的理论判断。围绕第二个实证命题的检验证明,当ODI-贸易规模效应发生,进而会产生ODI-贸易结构效应,但是ODI-贸易结构效应存在着一定的时滞。具体地说,通过时间序列检验的ODI母国贸易结构效应不如贸易规模效应显著；但通过对2006至2010年七个细分行业的ODI和贸易的面板数据分析表明,无论ODI存量还是ODI流量都对这些行业的贸易结构产生了影响。围绕第三个实证命题的检验证明,ODI会产生一定的贸易条件效应,但ODI不是决定贸易条件变化的最主要因素。通过时间序列对ODI的贸易条件效应进行检验表明,ODI产生了一定的贸易条件效应,ODI存量一定程度上有助于中国贸易条件改善,而ODI流量却加速了贸易条件的恶化,但是影响贸易条件效应变化的最主要因素仍然是国际与国内市场的需求变化。上述结论的理论意义,首先在于对ODI-贸易效应论题研究视野的拓展与命题本身的深化。从作为新兴市场经济体而具有的“中国式ODI”特征切入,将论题由单纯的贸易规模效应拓展至结构效应和贸易条件效应,同时对以往研究所关注的规模效应进行了综合视野的动态化拓展。实证检验按照命题要求探索了新的方法。研究的现实政策启示在于,政府旨在鼓励企业“走出去”与对外投资的政策目标,不仅应考虑其单纯的境外市场与境外资源开拓效应带来的贸易规模效应,而且更重要的应考虑其贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应,后两种贸易效应包涵了更多的贸易福利内涵。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid expansion of China’s foreign trade and its quick transforming from a small trading country to giant one during the last three decades owe a lot to a series overlaping elements related with opening up strategy and policies. The institutional reform, attracting FDI with privileged polices in the special economic zones, opening up the whole coastland areas, joining the WTO and launching the "going out strategy", etc, are typical ones. All these can be looked as series events. Recently, the hot topic is the effect of ODI on China’s foreign trade. The relationship between ODI and foreign trade of the home country is an old topic of international economics. But until now, researches on the topic neglected some basic facts. On the one hand, most of researches have paid more attention to the relationship between ODI and trade in the industrial countries but they neglected the phenomenon in emerging market economies; On the other hand, most of the researches have paid more attention to the hypothesis of "complementary effect" or "substitution effect" but neglected the mechanism of the effect of ODI on trade. In the meanwhile, they neglected the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect. The main aim of this dissertation is to study the dynamic trade effect of China’s ODI, including trade scale effect, trade structure effect and terms of trade effect.In theory, this dissertation has studied the mechanism of capital movement on trade through expanding Mundell’s capital movement of small country model to big country model. But the mechanism of ODI on trade is more complex than mere capital movement. Therefore this dissertation analyzes the theoretical model of effect of ODI on home country trade on the hypothesis that multinational corporations would maximize their profit. The dissertation derives three empirical prepositions (dynamic effect of relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade) on the theoretical analysis.On the basis of analysis of mechanism of effect of ODI on trade, this paper builds the empirical regress model to testify the relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade, using time series data of China’s ODI and trade which come from UNCTAD and WTO respectively. As far as the effect of ODI on trade scale, using data from1982-2010, empirical results show that both the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the scale of home country’s trade. Furthermore, the stock of ODI has more effect on trade scale than the flow of ODI does. The stock of ODI expands both the volume of home country’s merchandizing trade and service trade. As far as the effect of ODI on trade structure, there is no obvious evidence that the stock of ODI has positive effect on trade structure when using time series data. But the flow of ODI has lagged effect on trade structure. Furthermore, when the panel data of China’s7industries from2006to2010are used, the empirical results show that the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the structure of home country trade. Lastly, this dissertation testifies the relationship between ODI and home country’s terms of trade. Results show that the stock of ODI improves China’s terms of trade but the flow of ODI deteriorates it when time series data are used. But the demand of domestic market and international market are decisive factors of China’s terms of trade.The theoretical meaning of this study is that this dissertation extends the study field and deepens the preposition of the topic on relationship between ODI and home country trade. This dissertation analyzes the characteristics of China’s ODI as a typical model of emerging market and extends the study field from trade scale effect to trade structure effect and terms of trade effect as well as the dynamic trade scale effect. This paper attempts to use new method to test the preposition. The policy meaning of this study is that the government should set the appropriate aim of "Going Out Policy".The "Going Out Policy" should not only consider the trade scale effect of market expanding motivated and resource seeking ODI but also the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect, which contains more trade benefit effect.更多还原