【作者】 李波；

【导师】 黄敬峰； 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 当前中国正.经历着快速的城市化,特别是在沿海经济发达地区,城市扩展速度已经远超过发展中国家的平均扩展速度。城市化过程虽然能加速社会经济的发展,提供更多的就业机会等。然而与此同时也引发了一系列问题,农用地的大量减少、水资源水环境的破坏、城市热岛效应的加剧等等。因此,城市建设用地扩展的问题受到国内外学者的广泛关注。开展城市建设用地扩展的动力学研究,了解城市建设用地扩展的时空特征和演变规律,系统分析城市建设用地扩展的驱动机制,建立有效实用的城市模拟模型对城市建设用地扩展进行描述、模拟和预测,为沿海经济发达地区类似城市的规划管理和发展战略决策提供一定的参考价值与理论依据。本文选择沿海经济发达地区的典型代表—杭州作为研究区,运用卫星遥感技术和GIS空间分析方法,以遥感空间信息提取、城市建设用地扩展的景观格局分析及其时空演化、驱动机制和模型模拟预测为主轴线,开展了从1985年到2010年杭州市城市建设用地扩展的遥感监测及其动力学模拟研究。通过建立较为完整的城市建设用地空间信息提取技术体系,在此基础上分析和理解研究区城市建设用地扩展的基本特征、时空演化规律及驱动机制、模拟预测城市未来变化方向和空间布局。本文的主要研究工作成果如下：(1)面向长时间跨度(1985-2010年)的城市建设用地空间信息提取的问题,提出了基于多源遥感数据的城市建设用地空间信息提取方法。本文以杭州市为例,选择了六个时期(1985、1991、1995、2000、2005和2010年),由于时间跨度较长,选取了多种传感器(Landsat TM/ETM+、CBERS-02 CCD和HJ-1-A CCD)的遥感影像作为数据源。根据研究对象和所采用的数据特点,提出了光谱混合分解技术与热红外波段反演生成的地表温度相结合的方法完成城市建设用地空间信息的提取。采用1999年的SPOT-4的全色影像和2000年Google earth上的高空间分辨率影像来验证2000年提取结果,结果显示绝大多数验证样本的误差落在±0.15区间之内,提取精度较为满意,随后结合阈值的设定获取了杭州市六个时期的城市建设用地空间分布图。同时与通过监督分类法对不同时期非城市建设用地区域内的各类土地信息提取结果叠置分析,最终得到杭州市六个时期的城市土地利用分类图。(2)利用景观格局指数进行定量分析,结果发现杭州在城市化进程的影响下,研究区逐渐从1985年以农业自然景观为主向2010年以城市人工景观为主的景观格局转换,整个研究期间,耕地景观的区域优势度丧失,破碎度增加,而城市建设用地优势的作用突出,而景观破碎度呈下降趋势,空间上呈现聚集连片发展趋势；通过城市扩展测度指数对城市建设用地扩展演化过程的分析,发现杭州市在1985-2010年25年间城市建设用地扩展主要呈现以下基本特征：第一,城市建设用地面积急剧增加,空间布局发生巨大变化。城市建设用地面积从1985年发展初期的8142.55公顷激增到2010年的59066.24公顷,城市建设用地比例也从最初不到10%增加超过了50%；第二,耕地面积剧烈减少,破碎化程度明显,耕地从1985年的73973.26公顷急剧下降到2010年的24103.62公顷,耕地的最大斑块指数(LPI)从1985年为33.800下降到2010年的3.220,耕地的优势地位已被城市建设用地所取代；第三,城市建设用地扩展方式主要以外延蔓延式增长为主。(3)基于遥感和G1S技术平台,从时间和空间上分析和阐述了杭州市城市建设用地扩展的驱动机制,同时结合杭州市的特点,构建了杭州市城市建设用地扩展的DSR研究模型。根据杭州市自身发展特征和驱动力作用方式的不同,从自然地理、社会经济、政府政策等角度,将驱动力分为三大类,在此基础上又将驱动力分为七小类。其中,地形是城市建设用地扩展的制约力,杭州市城市建设用地扩展方向和现在的城市空间形态与其自然地形地貌结构是密不可分的；优越的地理区位赋予杭州强大的资源要素聚集和经济辐射能力,促进城市建设用地的进一步扩展；交通条件对于城市建设用地扩展的推动作用非常显著,空间分析结果显示贡献率最大的是城区主干道和高速公路；通过回归分析发现国内生产总值、财政收入和交通客运量与城市建设用地扩展过程的关系尤为密切；政府的作用在城市建设用地扩展过程中始终是居于领导和支配地位,杭州市政府通过行政区划调整政策对于杭州市范围的土地资源和行政资源进行重组,对于城市建设用地扩展具有很强的推动作用；市政府通过编制城市总体规划,积极推动和引导城市建设用地扩展的进程,并主导着城市发展的规模和节奏,现实的城市建设用地扩展趋势证实了规划中设定的杭州市城市空间发展格局。在驱动机制分析的基础上,结合城市建设用地扩展的时空演化特征和随后针对规划失效提出的对策,构建出杭州市城市建设用地扩展的DSR研究模型。(4)比较分析了现有城市建设用地扩展模拟预测模型的缺陷和不足的基础上,构建了基于案例推理技术和元胞自动机的城市建设用地扩展模拟预测模型。引入案例推理技术来解决元胞自动机规则获取的瓶颈问题,通过案例来隐含表达转换规则,提升模型的应用效率,同时为了提高模型的运算效率和尽可能全面地考虑相关的空间关系指标,引入改进型土地生态适宜性评价模型对于案例库属性指标进行优化。该模型被应用于杭州市城市建设用地扩展的模拟中,模拟了杭州在2005-2010年城市建设用地扩展情况,且采用逐点对比和空间形态对比两种方法进行精度验证,验证结果显2005年和2010年模拟结果的总精度分别为0.81和0.80,其Kappa系数分别为0.59和0.58,研究表明该模型模拟的结果具有较高的精度,与实际情况的吻合程度也较高。基于此,利用该模型对2015年杭州市城市建设用地空间扩展进行预测,预测结果表明未来城市建设用地的斑块破碎度将降低,优势度越发凸显,边缘结构趋于简单。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, under the rapid urbanization in China, the rate of urban expansion in the developed coastal regions of China has been far more than the average rate in other developing countries. Urbanization process can be helpful to accelerate social and economic development, provide more employment opportunities, but it can also lead to a series of questions, such as a sharp decrease of agricultural lands, the pollution for water resources, the deterioration of the living environment. Therefore, the study on urban expansion has become a focus for many researchers at home and abroad. The dynamics of urban expansion have been studied for understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution of urban expansion, analyzing the driving forces of urban expansion, simulating and predicting urban expansion using the effective simulation model. And it can provide scientific basis for urban planning management and developing strategies of the developed coastal regions.This dissertation took the spatial information extraction of remote sensing images, land landscape pattern analysis of urban expansion, spatial and temporal characteristics, driving forces analysis and simulation model as a main guideline to study remote sensing monitoring and simulation of urban expansion in Hangzhou based on the remote sensing images and GIS. Based on the establishment of urban land spatial information extraction technology system, the basic characteristics of urban expansion, spatial and temporal evolution law and driving forces of urban expansion were analyzed and understood to simulate the urban change direction and spatial distribution.The main research achievements in this dissertation were as follows:(1) Urban land use spatial information extraction methodology based on multi-sources remote sensing for a long period (1985-2010) images was developed in this study. This study took Hangzhou as a case and adopted multi-dates images (1985, 1991,1995,2000,2005 and 2010), multi-sensors (Landsat TM/ETM+ and CBERS-02 CCD and HJ-1/A CCD) as the data sources. According to the characteristics of the research object and data, the integration of spectral mixture analysis model and land surface temperature generated by thermal infrared images was used to extract spatial information of urban lands. SPOT-4 pan-image in 1999 and high resolution images of Google earth in 2000 was selected for validating the extraction results,the validation result showed the majority of differences between estimating values and interpreting values of samples ranged from -0.15 to +0.15. There was a promising accuracy. And then, the spatial distribution of urban lands in different periods was obtained by setting the threshold. Combined with the other land uses classified using the supervised classification, land use maps of Hangzhou in six periods were obtained.(2) This dissertation adopted some landscape metrics to make a quantitative analysis. The analysis result showed that landscape pattern experienced a great conversion process from 1985 to 2010 in which the agricultural landscape was replaced with the man-made landscape. In whole study period, the dominant position of agricultural landscape disappeared gradually, and its fragmentation was increasing; while urban land achieved an advantage position, and its fragmentation was decreasing. The evolution of urban expansion was analyzed using urban expansion metrics. The result showed there were some basic characteristics of urban expansion of Hangzhou from 1985 to 2010. First, the rapid increase of urban lands came along with the magnificent change of spatial distribution. The area of urban lands had increased from 8142.55 hectares in 1985 to 59066.24 in 2010. The ratio of urban land to the whole study area in 1985 was less than 10%, and the ratio of urban land to the whole study area in 2010 was more than 50%. Second, the sharp decrease of farmland came along with the increase fragmentation. The area of farmland had decreased from 73973.26 hectares in 1985 to 24103.62 in 2010. LPI of farmland had also decreased from 33.800 to 3.220. Third, urban expansion of Hangzhou had experienced the process of "diffusion-aggregation".(3) Driving force mechanism was systematically analyzed and explained based on the remote sensing image and GIS. Combined with the characteristics of Hangzhou, the DSR model of urban expansion of Hangzhou was establishment. According to the development characteristics of Hangzhou and the function of driving forces, driving forces were divided into three categories from the views of the geography, social economy and government policy. On this basis, they were reclassified to seven factors. The topography was the limited factor for urban expansion. The direction of urban expansion and urban morphology had a close relationship with topography. Geographic location gave Hangzhou a powerful resources gathering capacity and economic radiation capacity. The traffic conditions had a very significant role in promoting urban expansion. The analysis result showed that the urban main roads and highways had a great contribution to urban expansion. The regression analysis indicated that GDP, financial revenue and passenger capacity had a close relationship with urban expansion. The role of government had always been dominant in urban expansion. The adjustment of the administrative division had led to reorganization of land resources and administrative resources. It was helpful for promoting urban expansion. Urban planning of Hangzhou was a guide for the scale and direction of urban development. On the basis of the analysis of these driving forces, combining with the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban expansion and measurements for controlling the failure of urban planning, the DSR model of urban expansion of Hangzhou was establishment.(4) A simulation model of urban expansion based on CBR (Cased-Based Reasoning) and CA (Cellular Automata) was established on the basis of the comparison and analysis of the current simulation models. There were problems in representing complicated relationships by using static and conventional rules. The CBR approach could deal with the problems of the rule-based approach in defining CA. It didn’t need to obtain explicit transition rules, and its transition rule was implicitly embedded in dynamical cases. And the modified land ecological suitability model was used to optimize attribute indices in the case database in order to improve the computational efficiency of the CBR-CA model. This model was used to simulate urban expansion of Hangzhou from 2005 to 2010. Two validation methods of point by point comparison and spatial morphology comparison were used to evaluate the accuracy of results. The validation result showed the simulation accuracies of 2005 and 2010 were 0.81 and 0.80, Kappa statistics of 2005 and 2010 were 0.59 and 0.58. It demonstrated that this model had a high accuracy, and could produce plausible simulation results. Based on the analysis above, this model was used to predict the spatial distribution of urban expansion in 2015. The results showed the decrease of fraamentation the increase of dominance of urban land.更多还原