煤炭清单与减排政策研究

【作者】 黄建；

【导师】 梁鸿； 潘克西；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源和环境经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 能源在我国经济社会发展过程中占有举足轻重的地位,同时寸能源也是CO2排放的几乎全部来源。目前我国CO2排放量已经超过美国,成为世界上排放量最多的国家,占比接近1/4。未来我国能源需求的动力依然较强,相应产生的排放问题将愈来愈成为国际关注的焦点,面临较大的国际压力。煤炭是我国CO2排放的最主要来源,占比70%以上,因此,研究我国煤炭相关CO2排放的构成、选择关键领域并实施减排政策,将大大减缓我国CO2排放增长的进程。CO2排放清单是指一定时期内用于记录和报告人为产生的CO2排放量的详细列表,周期通常为一年。CO2排放清单的编制范围包括国家层面、区域和城市层面、企业层面以及产品生命周期过程等。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的一系列温室气体清单指南为研究和编制CO2排放清单提供了指导原则。将煤炭这一特定的能源品种作为单独的部分编制相应的清单,对我国而言,具有特别重要的意义,因此本文提出了煤炭清单的概念,煤炭清单,即国家煤炭利用相关的CO2排放清单,是指一定时期内(通常为一年)记录和报告一国范围内因煤炭利用而产生的CO2排放的详细列表。从研究对象上来看,煤炭清单是国家CO2排放清单的一部分。从研究方法上看,一种是在国家CO2排放清单体系下,基于煤炭消费侧的排放清单方法；另一种是基于煤炭生产和销售侧的排放清单方法；而国家C02排放清单则是基于能源消费侧的排放清单方法；产品CO2排放清单是基于产品生命周期过程的排放清单方法。本文详细分析了当前我国煤炭相关统计体系的主要特点,指出其对于编制煤炭清单的挑战和优势,认为在我国目前的统计体系下,难以应用基于煤炭消费侧的排放清单方法；而我国当前的煤炭生产和销售侧数据相比更适合应用基于煤炭生产和销售侧的排放清单方法来编制煤炭清单,该方法在理论上是IPCC推荐的参考方法的扩展；其现实依据是我国煤炭基本处于自给自足的状态,煤炭销售量主要流向国内用煤部门,进出口量相比生产消费量非常小本文通过研究发现,2005年电力部门耗煤产生的CO2排放量占煤炭相关排放总量的49%,相比1994年的37.2%有较大提高。由于电力是能源的高级形式,能源电化比例越高,能源效率也较高,因此上述比例在未来还将有不断提高的趋势。将电力作为我国未来减排的重点领域,符合我国的基本国情和未来发展的基本趋势。本文对电力部门未来CO2排放趋势和减排政策的分析分别采用环境经济学分析和能源系统工程两种方法,前者对于确定未来我国排放总量趋势、煤炭相关排放趋势以及电力相关排放趋势有重要意义,主要采用环境库兹涅茨曲线的基本思想,着重分析CO2排放强度(而非CO2排放量)和人均GDP(即经济发展阶段)之间的关系,结合我国“十二五”期间CO2排放强度下降17%的规划目标,并基于政策一致性原则,确定未来我国CO2的排放趋势及其排放峰值。分析结果表明,我国将在2038年达到CO2排放的峰值,煤炭利用相关CO2排放的峰值将在该年份之前达到,电力相关CO2排放峰值亦将在该年份左右达到。环境经济学方法从政策角度很好地评估了我国CO2排放强度下降目标的涵义,分析表明,我国“十二五”期间提出的排放强度下降日标相比国际经验更为激进,反映了我国在控制C02排放方面所做出的积极努力。但环境经济学方法仍存在一定局限性,特别是从能源利用到CO2产生的作用过程来看,经历了终端需求、能源转化和能源供应等过程,影响排放的各复杂因素无法体现出来,因此,对具体实施CO2减排政策的指导作用甚微。能源系统工程方法在电力系统上的应用则分别从微观角度分析了电力的终端需求、发电技术的评价以及发电能源的供应等问题,在电力系统分析中应用两种框架——基于情景设置的核算框架(情景分析框架)和优化分析框架。前者主要基于电力需求主要因素、电力技术发展主要因素的情景设置,对电力需求量和电力供应结构进行“自底向上”核算；分析结果表明,基准情景下,2020、2030、2040和2050年的电力需求分别为5004.00,6418.65,8095.83和9443.16 TWh。从供给侧来看,综合技术、经济、管理、政策以及环境等因素,设置了电力供给结构情景,结果表明,各种技术呈现渐进式发展,水电、核电对传统煤电的替代作用较为明显,碳捕集与碳封存(CCS)技术发展缓慢。本文还特别分析了能源技术成本随着技术规模的变化而变化,应用能源技术学习曲线拟合这种关系,对风电和碳捕集技术进行分析和比较,结果显示,风电的单位CO2减排成本略高于碳捕集技术,但考虑了碳运输和封存成本之后,后者将略高于前者。优化分析框架是在电力需求量和CO2排放量约束条件下,研究使得电力系统成本最小化的电力供应结构。优化结果表明,除了需要继续发展水电之外,未来我国还需姚优先增加超(超)临界等高参数燃煤机组的比例,不断降低低参数燃煤机组比例。另外,更严格的CO2排放约束使得核电机组的成本有效性也逐渐体现出来。从2040年之后超(超)临界燃煤机组基础上的CCS技术才具有经济竞争力。相比较而言,风电机组由于其自身成本较高、寿命较短等问题,难以有较大的发展,且风电由于寿命较短,其装机规模呈现波动状态。能源系统工程方法为政府制定电力减排规划政策提供了指导,情景分析过程更为主观,且对技术的评价静态、独立,没有考虑技术特征的动态变化及技术之间的选择过程,但其考虑的因素更为全而,特别是在政策引导、管理因素的考虑上,这些因索是难以量化的；优化分析框架更为客观、科学,考虑各种技术之间的动态变化、选择和互动,但政策目标单一,且由于很多因素难以量化,导致分析可能产生片而性。本文提出了规划政策所需要遵循的主要原则,即系统性、科学性、目标性、完整性和可靠性原则,指出了它们之间的关系。认为当前主要任务是,需要在优化分析框架基础上,继续考虑其它更多、更为复杂的因素,将之量化并纳入到该框架中,即在系统性、科学性和目标性前提下,不断提高完整性。本文基于Lingo软件开发了优化分析程序,为进一步拓展相关研究奠定了重要技术基础。由于可靠性原则是最难以得到保证的原则,必须依赖健全的能源与碳排放统计、报告和核查体系。这也是当前规划政策所面临的最大障碍。可靠性原则同样也是决定我国能否有效实施基于市场的机制——碳排放交易机制的最重要因素。只有在基于配额拍卖的碳排放交易机制下,可以通过企业的自我选择来解决数据和信息的可靠性问题,但其必须依赖完善的市场体系,这在我国还有相当长一段路需要走。本文采用层层递进的过程,首先采用基于生产和销售侧的排放清单方法对煤炭清单进行研究,选择关键领域和类别——电力,然后针对电力系统进行环境经济、技术经济以及系统工程学分析,并对相关政策进行评价。主要创新点如下：第一,提出煤炭清单的概念,并对其理论体系进行初步阐释,划分基于消费侧的排放清单方法与基于生产和销售侧的排放清单方法。在我国煤炭相关生产、销售、消费等活动水平数据、排放因子数据的相关统计体系基础上,认为基于煤炭生产和销售侧的排放清单方法编制煤炭清单具有一定优势,据此编制了2005年煤炭清单,并对其进行不确定性分析。第二,本文将已经出台的CO2排放强度规划目标纳入到相关环境经济学模型框架中,将目标进行分解,得到不同分解路径下的CO2排放总体趋势。在当前国内外相关研究中尚属首次,该方法具有可移植性,在能耗强度目标甚至其它各种规划目标的分析中都具有参考价值。第三,本文尝试建立一套应用于电力系统的能源系统工程分析框架,研究其政策涵义。该分析框架包含基于情景设置的核算框架与有约束条件下的优化框架。传统的能源系统工程分析虽然都涉及了各主要方面,但主要针对的是整个能源系统,如LEAP和MARKAL模型,且在电力需求分析中通常采用计量经济分析方法,忽略了形成电力需求的基本本要素,本文采用“拟专家判断”的方法,影响电力需求的各基本要素进行细致分析,包括文献综述、实地调研等,形成一套“拟专家判断”数据,根据相关数据的分布来分析电力需求的情景；电力供应情景分析与一般的专家判断法不同,主要采用因素综合分析法,即厘清影响电力供应技术的技术、经济、管理、政策以及环境等因素,并设置各自的权重,据此对各种技术进行综合判断并设置相应的情景；电力供应优化分析以约束条件下的最优化为基本思想,与MARKAL模型电力系统模块不同的是,本文考虑的是电力系统成本最小化而非投资费用的最小化,且将技术学习曲线纳入到分析框架中。本文还开发了基于Lingo软件的电力供应优化分析程序,该程序具有相当大的灵活性,不仅方便计算,还便于在以后的研究中将更多、更为全面的约束条件考虑在内。第四,能源系统工程分析方法依赖的重要基础是主要电力技术的评价,在电力技术经济评价中,本文引入了技术学习曲线,结合技术推广路径,对我国风电技术和碳捕集技术进行投资支出、推广时间以及减排成本分析和比较。这一分析路径和方法在目前国内能源研究中还较少见到。本文从总体上尝试为煤炭利用相关的CO2排放问题提供全面、细致的分析框架,从侧重历史排放的排放清单研究到侧重未来发展的环境经济分析、情景分析与优化框架；从宏观趋势分析到基于详细技术特征的“自底向上”分析；从技术自身的评价到技术战略选择再到技术支持政策与机制分析。对于具有明显交叉特点的能源环境学科,上述分析框架为其建设提供了一定参考,具有重要理论意义。当然,本文没有能力处理能源环境学的方方面面,在具体分析上,侧重于煤炭清单研究与电力系统的情景与优化分析等,这对我国以煤为基础、电为中心的能源结构具有重要现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy plays a very important role in the development of economics and society in our country, almost all of CO2 emissions are from energy use. China has been the largest CO2 emissions country in the world, which accounted for almost a quarter of the world’s total emissions after she exceeded the level of US in 2008. The Chinese energy demand in the future will remain strong, and the related CO2 emissions will be more and more focused and pressed by the international society. Coal is the main origination of CO2 emissions in China, accounted for 70% of the total energy related emissions. So research on the coal related CO2 emissions and focus on the main source will largely slow down the growth rate of CO2 emissions in our country.CO2 emissions inventory is a kind of detailed list, which used for recording and reporting the anthropogenic CO2 emissions during a period, usually, a year. The scope of CO2 emissions inventory includes the national, regional and city-wide, corporate, and the lifecycle of product. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released several GHG Inventory Guidelines for the purpose of inventory making. It is of special significance to make CO2 emissions inventory related to coal consumption. So the concept of coal inventory is put forward in this thesis, which means the CO2 emissions inventory related to coal consumption in a country. As to the object, coal inventory is a part of the national CO2 emission inventory; but there are two inventory making paths, one is based on the coal consuming side as the national CO2 emissions inventory making, and the other is based on the coal producing and sale side. Lifecycle emissions inventory of a product is based on the lifecycle emissions of the producing process.This research analyzes the main characteristic of Chinese coal related statistic system, figuring out the challenges and advantages when used for coal inventory making. We conclude that currently it is hard to use the coal consuming based inventory making path, but it is more suitable for coal producing and sale based path to apply in Chinese coal inventory. This path is the extension of the IPCC reference method in theory, in practice it is decided by Chinese coal situation, which characterized as self-dependant.The result of the coal inventory shows that, coal power related CO2 emissions accounted for 49% of the total CO2 emissions in 2005, which is higher than 37.2% in 1994. For power is the advanced energy product, more energy transformed to power the higher energy efficiency is. So we can estimate that the percentage of coal power related CO2 emissions will even go higher. Take the power sector as the key emissions sources will largely slow down the growth rate of CO2 emissions in China.The thesis use environmental economics method and energy system engineering method to forecast the power sector related CO2 emissions and analyze the emissions reduction policy. It is of great significance to use the environmental economic method to forecast the total CO2 emissions, coal use related CO2 emissions and power related CO2 emissions. This method based on the Environmental Kuznetz Curve (EKC) to analyze the relationship between CO2 emission intensity and GDP per capita. Then we will combine this relationship to the 17% CO2 emissions intensity target put forward in the national 12th five year plan to get the CO2 emission path based on the policy consistence. The result shows that China will reach the CO2 peak in the year 2038; coal use related CO2 emission will reach the peak before 2038 and coal power related CO2 emissions will reach the peak after the coal related emissions peak. In addition, the environmental economic method can also evaluate the CO2 emissions reduction target, which shows that the reduction target in the 12th five year plan is more aggressive than the international experience, which means China has make active efforts to control the CO2 emission.But there are limits related to the environmental economic method. The most noticeable is that it cannot reflect the process during which CO2 is produced. The process including power demand, power transformation, and primary energy supply. So the environmental economic method can hardly guide the technology chose and policy making.Energy system engineering method is used to solve these problems in the power system. It will be based on the micro-characteristic of the power demand sector, power transformation sector and primary energy supply sector. We will apply two analysis frameworks to the power system:the accounting framework based on the scenario setting (scenario analysis) and the optimization framework. The scenario analysis framework based on the setting of the factors that influence the power demand, power transformation technology to calculate the power demand and power supply structure and power related CO2 emissions. The result shows that power demand in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 will reach 5004.00,6418.65,8095.83 and 9443.16 TWh under the reference scenario. In the supply side, we synthesize the technology factor, economic factor, management factor, policy factor and environmental factor to set the power technology development scenario. We can find that hydro power and nuclear power will increase quickly to substitute the traditional low efficiency coal power, and the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is slow. In addition, in this part we discuss the technology learning curve, which explain the fact that the technology cost will reduce as the scale increase. We use the learning curve to analyze the wind power and carbon capture technology, the conclusion of which is that reduction cost of wind power is higher than the carbon capture technology; but when carbon transportation and storage cost included, the latter will be higher than the former.The optimization framework is considering the total cost of power system under the condition of power demand and CO2 emissions control. The optimization result shows that China need to increase the scale of supercritical or ultra supercritical coal power besides to hydro power. When CO2 emissions control become stricter, the economic advantage of nuclear power will be emerge. CCS technology will become economic competitive after 2040 because of the technological learning effect. For the short lifecycle and high cost, the wind power can hardly account for large percent of the total energy supply.The energy system engineering method provides suggestions for the government reduction plan. We can find that the scenario analyze is more subjective, static and independent in the technology evaluation. But the factors it considered are more complete, including some measureless factors, such as management factors and policy factors. The optimization framework is more objective and scientific, which consider the dynamic interaction of technologies. But this framework has just one objective and many factors that cannot be measured and included, so the result will inevitably ex parte. So the thesis proposes five principles for policy plan, which are integrated, scientific, targeted, complete and reliable. Currently we need to base on the optimization framework, consider more and more factors which are hard to be measured. The Lingo program developed in this thesis will pave the way for the further research.The reliable principle is hard to satisfy, which depends on the robust data gathering, reporting and verification system of energy and CO2 emissions. This also is the biggest challenge of the emissions reduction plan. The reliable principle also determines the feasibility of CO2 emissions trading system, which is the market based mechanism. Only under the auction of credits can the emissions trading system realize its economic effective. But this system has to be guaranteed by a mature market mechanism, which has a long way to go in China.This thesis has the following innovations:Firstly, the coal inventory concept is put forward and its theoretical framework is explained. Two inventory paths, including coal consuming based path and coal producing and sale based path, are introduced. Based on the current coal related statistical system in China, we suggest coal producing and sale based path is more suitable for China coal inventory making. China coal inventory in 2005 is made using this path.Secondly, we put the CO2 emissions intensity target into the environmental economic framework to forecast the CO2 emissions, coal use related CO2 emissions and power related CO2 emissions. We also use this model to evaluate the CO2 emissions intensity target. This kind of analysis is not common in the related researches.Thirdly, the thesis tries to establish an energy system engineering framework in applying to the power system, and evaluate the policy implication. The framework including accounting framework based on scenario setting and optimization framework under several controls. The traditional energy system engineering framework often consider the whole energy system, such as LEAP and MARKAL. In power demand part, former researches mainly use the econometric method to forecast. In this thesis we base on the influential factors that determine each power demand sector, use the accounting method to calculate the power demand. Based on the evaluation in large amount of papers and reports, we get the distribution of each factor and use them to do uncertainty analysis to power demand. Power supply scenario analysis is based on the technological, economic, management, policy and environmental factors that influence the development of each power technology. In the optimization part, we use the optimization method to minimize the system cost, which is different from MARKAL power system module, which targets the minimization of the investment.!n addition, we also include the technological learning curve to the optimization model. Based on the Lingo we develop the program not only for facilitating the calculation, but also for further research.Fourthly, energy system engineering method is based on the evaluation of each power technology. The thesis introduces the technological learning curve to evaluate the movement of the technology cost. A comparable analysis is used to analysis the cost of wind power and carbon capture technology. This kind of analysis is not common in current research.The thesis try to provide a comprehensive and meticulous framework for the coal use related CO2 emissions and power sector emissions reduction. From historical analysis on emissions inventory to future analysis including environmental economic analysis, scenario analysis and optimization analysis; from the trend forecast to the bottom up analysis based on the technological characteristic; from the technological evaluation to technological choice and strategy. The framework theoretically provides an important reference for the energy and environmental research. The thesis of course cannot apply it to each subject of energy and environmental research, why we choose coal inventory and power system analysis is based on the energy reality of China, which is coal-foundation and power-centralization.更多还原