国际石油价格形成机制分析与中国石油定价模式研究

【作者】 潘宁；

【导师】 华民；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 石油自1859年在美国被发现并大规模地商业开发以来,一直是世界各国国民经济发展不可或缺的重要资源。二十世纪两次石油危机的爆发,二十一世纪初至今石油价格的剧烈波动,都是石油价格形成机制中各变量要素相互作用的结果。这些要素有属于基本面的,如石油特有的不可再生稀缺属性、市场供需关系变化等,又有非基本面的如市场结构、OPEC政策博弈、美元汇率、金融市场投机、地缘政治因素等。这些定价要素造成了石油价格的长周期波动和短期不确定冲击。作为新兴市场国家,中国对石油进口的依存度在逐年上升,油价波动对中国经济的可持续增长无疑产生巨大影响。因此,深入研究国际石油定价机制,从而探讨中国如何制定有效的定价模式和调控机制以应对石油价格的不确定波动,对中国经济的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文对国际石油价格形成的理论机制和实现途径进行了综述和分析,剖析了影响石油价格形成机制的相关要素。论文采用了理论与实证分析相结合的方法,对石油的供需关系、市场结构、OPEC政策博弈、美元汇率、金融市场投机、地缘政治等因素进行定性与定量分析,指出基本面的要素作用仍是石油价格长周期波动的主要因素。非基本面要素作用是石油价格短期突变的直接成因。论文同时对世界各国石油价格体系的优劣进行了阐述和比较,由此对比中国成品油定价模式,最后提出中国相应的调控机制和对策,以应对石油价格的不确定波动,如积极参与国际定价话语权、建立石油期货市场、有条件地开放商业石油储备、加强石油市场竞争主体多元化、完善石油税收体系、加快新能源的开发利用等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil has always been the indispensible natural resources for the economic development of all nations over the world ever since it’s been discovered and commercially utilized in 1859. Studies have found that the drastic fluctuations of the oil prices during the 1970s oil crisis and the beginning of the 21st century are attributed to the interactions of all pricing factors such as the Hotelling rule of resource exhaustion, short supply and increasing demand, OPEC strategy, depreciation of US dollar, financial market speculations and geopolitical issues. China, as the emerging industrial country, with the increasing demand of oil, is heavily dependent on the oil import. Thus, this research on the major factors of world oil pricing and fluctuations and the domestic oil pricing mechanism is of high importance and significance, which will provide constructive proposals to the policy makers.The paper starts with an overview of the world oil pricing mechanism and tries to apply a qualitative and quantitative analysis on the major factors affecting the price fluctuations. The paper concludes that the long-term and short-term price fluctuations are affected by those factors mentioned respectively based upon different economic situations. The price fluctuations has become constant and China should build up its own systematic pricing mechanism such as seek global political dialogues, set up oil commodity future market, increase commercial oil tank storage and speed up the development of new energies to stabilize the economic boom.更多还原