【作者】 张农科；

【导师】 王稼琼；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 从世界各国的发展历史看,房地产市场的发展,都与区域经济的整体发展有着密切的联系。房地产业因其产业链条较长、资金密集度较高等特点正逐步成为宏观经济的一个支柱产业,并且随着时间的推移,该产业正日益发挥着独特而重要的作用。在此背景下,本文分析了我国房地产业的安全问题。本文在房地产经济理论与产业安全理论指导下,构建房地产安全的一般分析框架；在此基础上用我国的相关数据作实证分析,探讨在改革开放后的经济发展背景下,房地产业发展所面临的不安全问题,运用产业安全理论分析框架以及产业安全预警体系建立的方法对我国房地产安全进行全面的分析；同时也期望通过此项研究,对我国未来房地产业的发展以及其房地产市场发展战略的制定,从理论上及实际操作上进行有价值的探讨。首先,构建了我国房地产业安全分析框架,在此基础之上,探讨我国房地产业安全存在的问题,主要包括四个方面,即房地产投资问题、住房价格问题、房地产市场结构问题和不动产管理存在的问题。其次,分析我国房地产业安全的影响因素,包括四个主要方面,即投资因素、价格因素市场因素和不到不动产管理因素。再次,构建我国房地产业安全评价体系研究,并进一步依据指标选择的原则选择有代表性的指标,并采用熵权法对现有指标的权重进行计算,进而对我国房地产业安全进行评价。最后,提出维护我国房地产业安全的对策建议。通过对我国房地产业安全现状、问题、影响因素以及安全状况的评估,提出我国房地产业解决现有问题,改善现有情况的对策建议。主要包括两个方面,一是从宏观调控的对策角度,另一个是从我国不动产管理的角度。本文以产业安全理论、宏观经济学、微观经济学、房地产经济学、区域经济学等基本原理为指导,综合运用多种研究方法,主要包括宏观和微观研究方法相结合、理论研究和实证研究相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合、静态研究和动态研究相结合、时间维度和空间维度相结合、理论借鉴与引申发展相结合。本文的主要创新点体现在三个方面,即本文拟在现有产业安全理论和房地产经济学理论的框架卞对“房地产业安全”的含义进行界定；引入房地产业特有的评价指标；构建房地产业安全的分析框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 Observing the development of the world history, the development of the real estate industry is contacting with the development of the regional economy. Because of the characteristics as longer industrial chain and higher capital intensity, real state industry is gradually becoming a pillar industry in macroeconomics. And with the time flies, the real estate is increasingly playing a unique and important role in national economy. In this context, the paper analyzes the security of real estate in theoretical and empirical aspects. This paper under the real estate economic theory and the industrial security theory, build an analytical framework of real estate security. On this basis with the relevant data for our empirical analysis, discuss the in the context of economic development after the reform and opening up, the real estate industry faced the security problem, use the theoretical framework and the industrial security warning system to establish the method of the real estate security. And through this research. Also hope to give some sugesstion for the future of China real estate development and the real estate market development strategies in the theoretical and practical discussion on the value.First, build an analysical framework of China’s real estate security. On this basis, to discuss security problems in China’s real estate industry, including four aspects:real estate investment, housing prices, real estate market structure and the real estate management problems.Second, analysis the factors affecting of the real estate security, including the four main areas:investment factors, market factors, price factors and real estate management factor.Again, build a framework of China’s real estate security, and further to select the index based on the principle of a representative selection of indicators, using existing indicators entropy method to calculate the weight, and thus to-evaluate the security of China’s real estate industry.Finally, give the proposed measures to maintain the security of China’s real estate proposal. Through our real estate security status, problems, factors and safety assessment of the situation, put forward China’s real estate industry to solve the existing problems and improve the existing situation of countermeasures. Mainly includes two aspects, one from the perspective of macro-control measures, the other is from the perspective of our real estate management.In this paper, with industrial security theory, macroeconomics, microeconomics, real estate economics, regional economics, and other basic principles as a guide, using a variety of research methods, including macro and micro research methods, combining theory and empirical research, combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, combined static and dynamic study, the combination of time and space dimensions, combined with the extended development of learning theory.The main innovation of this paper is reflected in three aspects:in the framework of the existing theory and the real estate industry economic theory, identify the "real estate security"; introduct the real estate-specific evaluation; build the analytical framework of real estate security.更多还原