【作者】 周凌云；

【导师】 穆东；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 物流管理与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着经济全球化和区域化的浪潮,区域经济一体化迅速兴起,区域经济日益成为一个紧密的整体。区域经济一体化发展的同时加剧了区域间的竞争,也更加凸现出区域物流战略作用。区域物流是区域经济重要组成部分,已构成影响地区供应链体系竞争力的重要因素,成为提升地区综台竞争力的战略举措。然而,当前区域物流存在条块分割、衔接不紧、标准不一、流程不畅等不协调问题,使得区域物流效率低下,从而影响区域经济的发展。因此,从区域层面宏观性、整体性考虑和统筹区域物流协同发展成为必要。区域物流协同发展本质上体现在“活”的适应性主体间协调与合作,需要将区域物流中各主体通过“竞争-合作-协调”自组织运行机制组织在一起,创建一种和谐共生秩序,实现主体共生进化和协同效应。区域物流中各相关主体相互适应、相互促进、相互协作,构成复杂的物流生态链,进而共同形成一种复杂的多主体共生系统,即区域物流多主体系统。只有在研究区域物流多主体系统运行模式、演化机制和协同机理的基础上,才能准确把握区域物流的发展规律和趋势,科学制定物流发展规划、政策和措施,促进区域物流的可持续发展。因此,本文从复杂性科学研究视角,对区域物流多主体系统的运作、演化与协同发展问题展开研究,主要研究内容和成果如下：(1)借鉴组织生态系统和复杂适应系统思想,基于生态学隐喻对区域物流进行全新描述,提出区域物多主体系统的概念,分析该系统的构成要素、功能分工与组织结构,阐述系统特性与运行目标。进而用适应性Agent的思维和方式自底向上对系统进行建模,研究区域物流微观主体生态秩序、行为模式及运作过程,分析区域物流多主体系统的组织形成、运作机理及适应性。(2)基于自组织理论,分析区域物流多主体系统耗散结构特性、结构失稳及演化分岔机理,对系统演化的动力机制——聚集以及系统演化的诱发条件——涨落进行研究,得出系统涨落的外源触发因子、内源激化因子及其协同作用机制。在此基础上,构建布鲁塞尔模型分析区域物流多主体系统耗散结构的形成机制,引入复合logistic发展机制方程分析系统分时段、动态性、多参数演化特征和演化阶段,并基于生物群落进化理论建立区域物流微观主体聚集演化模型和系统整体演化方程,揭示出区域物流多主体系统由主体聚集初级形态逐级向区域物流创新网络生态系统演化的规律。(3)在分析区域物流多主体系统协同发展涵义与体系结构基础上,对其协同发展模式和效应进行研究。进而引入熵理论分析区域物流多主体系统熵变与其协同发展的关系,建立协同熵、协同负熵、协同总熵变模型,分析区域物流多主体系统协同发展熵变机理及过程控制准则,并提出边际协同熵、边际协同负熵概念,分析熵变效应对系统协同发展过程调适时机的影响,提出熵流调适途径。(4)在分析区域物流多主体系统协同发展效度评价概念基础上,应用DEA和系统可持续发展评价等方法,建立区域物流多主体系统协同发展评价的DEA模型,给出区域物流多主体系统整体、各主体群内部、主体群之间协同发展的“协同效度”、“发展效度”和“协同发展综合效度”的计算方法,并将该评价模型进行实证分析。(5)根据区域物流主体的角色定位,从提升区域物流供给主体协同效率、加强区域物流需求主体在产业链中的合作、促进区域物流供给与需求主体对接、重视政府主体在区域物流规划和管理的协同、发挥中介主体和知识支持主体在物流协同运作中的保障作用、推进区域物流一体化等层面,提出区域物流多主体系统协同发展的对策与建议。本文共有图36幅,表17张,参考文献214篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic globalization and regionalization, regional economic integration grows at a fast pace and regional economy is increasingly becoming a tight unit When the regional economic integration develops, not only the regional competition become aggravated, but also the strategic roles of regional logistics are highlighted. Regional logistics, as an important part of regional economy, has become an important factor and grand strategy initiative which can affect the competitiveness of regional supply chain systems and enhance the regional comprehensive competitiveness. However, the current regional logistics has some uncoordinated problems such as barriers between departments, not tight cohesion, various standards and unsmooth processes and so on, making the regional logistics development speed reduced and the operation efficiency decreased, thus hindering the development of regional economy. So, considering macroscopically the synergetic development of regional logistics becomes necessary from the whole aspects.The synergetic development of regional logistics reflects synergetic cooperation of all logistics agents in its essence. It needs to organize all logistics agents with the self-organizing mechanism of "competition-cooperation-coordination", to achieve the overall system’s synergetic effects and then promote the harmonious and sustainable development of regional logistics. These agents in logistics ecological chain can live well through mutual adaptation, promotion and cooperation, therefore forming a complex institutional ecosystem, which is the regional logistics multi-agent system. Only after studying its operation mode, evolution mechanism and synergy mechanism, can we accurately grasp the developmental rules and trend of regional logistics system, and make the corresponding logistics layout and policy, men to promote the sustainable development of regional logistics. Therefore, this dissertation foucuses on regional logistics multi-agent system operation, evolution and synergetic development from the research view of complexity sciences, and its main research contents and results are as follows:(1) According to the ideas of institutional ecosystem and complex adaptive system, this dissertation puts forward the concept of regional logistics multi-agent system based on ecology’s metaphor, and discusses its composition, function and structure, and analyzes its characteristics and operation goals. Morover, the dissertation builds the whole system model from the bottom up with agent ideas and methods, and studies the regional logistics microcosmic agent’s ecology order, reactive mode and adapative operation process, and then researches the organization form, operation mechanism and adaptability.(2) Using self-organization theory, the dissertation analyzes characteristics of the regional logistics multi-agent system’s dissipative structure, structural instability and evolution bifurcate mechanism, and studies the dynamic mechanism and evolution trigger condition of system evolution, namely aggregation and fluctuation, and then discusses exogenous trigger factors, endogenous activation factors of system’s fluctuation and their common operation mechanism. Moreover, the dissertation analyzes the forming mechanism of regional logistics multi-agent system with Brussels model, and studies its dynamic evolution characteristics and processes from different periods and parameters using compound logistic equation, and builds the synergetic evolution model of microcosmic agent and the whole evolution model of regional logistics multi-agent system by using biological communities evolutionary theory to reveal the regional logistics multi-agent system’s evolution rules and trends.(3)Based on the connotation and architecture analysis of the regional logistics multi-agent system’s synergetic developmental, this dissertation studies the synergetic modes and effects of regional logistics multi-agent system. Moreover, the relations between system’s entropy change and its synergetic development are analyzed, and synergy entropy model, minus synergy entropy model and total synergy entropy model are built. Moreover, the system’s synergetic development entropy change mechanism and its process adjustment principles are brought forward, and the marginal synergy entropy and marginal minus synergy entropy are introduced to analyze the effects of entropy change and put forward the adjustment approaches.(4) On the analysis of the effect evaluation concept of regional logistics multi-agent system’s synergetic development, the DEA evaluation models are built according to DEA and system’s sustainable development evaluation theory, and the calculation methods of "synergetic validity","developmental validity" and "comprehensive validity of synergetic development" of the whole system, the internal communities and between communities are proposed. Finally, these evaluation models are analyzed through some demonstration data. (5)According to the role orientation of regional logistics agents,this puts forward someo adaptability countermeasures and suggestions that benefits the regional logistics multi-agent sysem’s synergetic development from the aspects of promoting the regional logistics supply agents’synergetic efficiency, strengthening regional logistics demand agents’ cooperation in their industrial chains,promoting the cooperation between regional logistics supply agents and demand agents,paying attention to the governmental synergy in regional logistics’ planning and management, exerting the functions of intermediary agents and intellectual support agents in synergetic operations,promoting regional logistics integration process,and so on.There are36figures and17tables in the dissertation,and214references are refered to.更多还原