【作者】 马社强；

【导师】 邵春福；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着中国社会经济快速发展,城市化和机动化水平快速提高,道路交通安全问题也日益突出和备受关注。自进入21世纪以来,中国道路交通事故各项指标有所改善,但与发达国家的差距日益显著,影响道路交通安全的社会因素日益凸显,尤其是中国省级区域社会经济发展不平衡,道路交通安全状况及其影响因素区域化特征显著,科学地认识省级区域道路交通安全特征的“差异化”及其影响因素、科学地评价省级区域道路交通安全态势具有良好的理论价值和现实意义,更有助于中国以及省级区域道路交通安全水平的提高。在此背景下,本论文对以下几方面的内容进行深入研究：(1)研究国内外在道路交通安全评价方面,特别是针对区域道路交通安全的影响因素、评价理论、评价指标、综合评价方法等,评述国内外相关理论研究方法及成果。(2)基于相关性原理,利用中国道路交通事故历史数据与国民生产总值、机动化水平、人口因素、道路交通运输量、道路里程、管理因素等进行相关性研究,通过纵向分析,阐明中国道路交通事故数据与这些因素之间具有显著相关性和同步性；利用实际数据,通过横向分析,阐明中国省级区域的道路交通事故数据与这些因素之间具有显著的相关性,同时表明上述因素对中国纵向和横向两个维度的影响有所差别；应用回归分析方法,构建道路交通事故与诸多因素之间的数量化关系模型。(3)从道路交通风险、事故危险度、社会经济发展、交通方式构成、社会管理效果和社会风险防御能力等六个方面,构建省级区域道路交通安全评价指标；分析指标之间的相关性；对指标进行规范化处理；应用累积百分率法确定指标的分级区间；应用均方差和熵值法确定指标体系的权重。(4)基于省级区域道路交通安全评价指标值,采用基于差异驱动原理的评价方法、灰色关联分析法和TOPSIS评价法,对省级区域道路交通安全状况进行综合评价并给出排序；采用兼容度确定最佳的综合评价方案；利用灰色关联分析法对省级区域道路交通安全评价一级指标进行综合评价；应用常规控制图理论,对评价指标进行质量控制分析,确定各省级区域的优先改善指标。(5)为了改善省级区域道路交通安全水平,从国家层面及省级区域层面构建道路交通安全对策,针对各省级区域道路交通安全评价结果,提出相关宏观对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of social economy, and great improvement of the level of urbanization and motorization in China, the traffic safety issues are becoming more serious and focused on by people. Since the21st century, the situation of road traffic accidents has been improved but it is still significantly worse than that in developed countries. Moreover the social factors that impact traffic safety are much more outstanding than before, especially the development of social economy is largely discrepant among the provinces of China. As a result the regional characteristics of traffic safety and their causes are more obvious. So it not only has a good theoretical and practical significance, but also is helpful to improve the level of provincial region traffic safety to study the discrepancies of traffic safety features and their causes and value the traffic safety situation among provincial regions.Under the circumstances, this dissertation will carry out intensive study in the following aspects:(1) Study the aspects that evaluate the traffic safety in both internal and abroad region, especially impact factors, evaluation theory, evaluation indexes and comprehensive evaluation method on regional traffic safety, and analyze correlative research methods and theoretical results.(2) Base on the correlation principle and the data of national historical traffic accidents, analyze the correlation between the road traffic accidents and macro impact factors, including GDP, the level of motorization, population, the volume of road transport, road mileage and other management factors. The analysis result shows that the correlation between the road traffic accidents and above macro impact factors in provincial regions is significant in both longitudinal and horizontal dimensions. Meanwhile the correlation is significantly different in these two dimensions. At last, these relationship models between road traffic accidents and above macro impact factors are built by using regression analysis method.(3) Build evaluation indices for the level of traffic safety for provincial regions from six first-grade-indices aspects, including the traffic accident risk, the development of social economy, the structure of road transportation pattern, the efficacy of social management and the defense capacity of social risks. Analyze the correlation between different indices and standardize evaluation indices. Distinguish the grade ranges by using cumulative percentage method. Determine the weight of the evaluation indices by applying mean variance and entropy method.(4) Completely evaluate and sequence road traffic safety level in provincial regions by using the evaluation score of road traffic safety level of provincial regions, discrepancy-driven theory, gray correlative degree and TOPSIS. Determine the best solution for making integrated evaluation by using compatibility degree. Estimate the first-grade-indices for provincial regions by using gray correlative degree. Determine the key indices for provincial regions and perform quality control analysis for evaluation indices base on Shewhart-control-charts theory.(5) To improve the level of provincial road traffic, the countermeasures are designed from the national and provincial perspectives, and the macroeconomic policies are put forward for each province based on above evaluation results.更多还原