【作者】 谷佃军；

【导师】 冯士筰； 高强；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境科学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 山东是我国沿海经济大省,海洋资源丰富,区位优势明显,战略地位突出。2009年4月,胡锦涛总书记在山东视察工作时提出要打造山东半岛蓝色经济区,这是从全国大局高度提出的战略构想。随着山东半岛蓝色经济区建设的逐步成型和《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规划》的正式通过,山东半岛海洋经济发展迎来重大战略机遇。但与此同时,我们应该清醒的看到,山东半岛海洋经济发展还存在诸多问题,面对日益枯竭的海洋资源和污染严重的海洋环境,山东半岛海洋经济已经不仅仅是单纯的发展的问题,而是能不能实现可持续发展以及如何实现可持续发展的问题。本文立足山东半岛海洋经济发展的现实状况,首先运用可持续发展理论和层次分析法等,构建山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展评价指标体系,并对山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展现状进行分析与评价,在此基础上,综合运用产业结构演进理论、产业集聚理论、蓝色经济区理论和模型分析等,分别从主导产业选择、产业布局优化和区域布局优化等方面对山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展的优化方式进行分析,最后提出了实现山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展的制度保障,为山东半岛海洋经济实现可持续发展提供切实可行的路径选择和理论指导。本文首先在借鉴国内外可持续发展评价研究成果的基础上,立足山东半岛实际情况,构建适合山东半岛自身特点的可持续发展指标评价体系,参考国内和国际海洋经济发展水平和各海洋产业发展标准等确立指标评价标准值,运用层次分析法对指标权重进行分析,在此基础上对山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展度进行综合分析与评价。据此得出如下结论：目前山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展度为0.55,处于中度可持续发展状态。具体来看,制约山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展的主要因素为：人均地区海洋生产总值、海洋科技经费占地区科技经费比重、海洋高新技术产业占海洋生产总值比重、海洋科技人员占海洋从业人员比重、山东半岛海洋经济劳动生产率、沿海地区海洋类型自然保护区总面积占沿海地区总面积比重、海洋生产总值与地区工业固体废弃物综合利用量比率以及海洋生产总值与地区工业废水直接入海排放量比率等。按照山东半岛海洋经济目前的发展趋势和速度来看,实现可持续发展度达到0.8—0.85的较好水平还需要14年,也就是到2021年山东半岛海洋经济可实现强可持续发展状态。在对山东半岛海洋经济可持续发展状况进行分析的基础上,本文分别从产业结构优化、产业布局优化和区域布局优化三个方面对山东半岛海洋经济持续发展的优化方式进行探讨。在产业结构优化方面,以产业结构演进理论和主导产业理论为指导,综合运用发展趋势分析、总量贡献度分析、增速贡献度分析和未来发展值预测等方法对山东半岛主要海洋产业进行综合分析与评价,运用波士顿矩阵法对山东半岛未来重点培育的海洋战略产业进行分析,得出山东半岛海洋经济主导产业为滨海旅游业、海洋运输业、海洋渔业、海洋修造船业、海洋油气化业,未来培育的重点产业为海洋高新技术产业。在产业布局优化方面,综合运用产业集聚理论和灰色关联度分析法,依据产业集聚、协同发展的原理,对山东半岛主要海洋产业未来发展的方向和发展重点进行了规划。在区域布局优化方面,以蓝色经济区理论为指导,按照错位发展,优势互补的原则,对山东半岛主要7个沿海城市—青岛、烟台、威海、滨州、日照、东营和潍坊海洋经济的发展方向和布局重点进行分析,并对山东半岛生态保护区布局进行了规划。更多还原

【Abstract】 With abundant marine resources, outstanding location advantages, and prominent strategic position, Shandong is a large coastal province of economy. On April 2009, General Secretary Hu Jintao proposed to build Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone during his inspection tour in Shandong, which was a strategic vision from the national point of view. With the gradual formation of the Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone and the promulgation of the Development Plan of the Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone, a major strategic opportunity is offered to the development of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy. However, at the same time, it should come to people’s notice that there are still many problems such as the increasingly depleted marine resources and the seriously polluted marine environment lying in the development of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy, which is more than just a question of development but the question of whether it can maintain and how to maintain a sustainable development as well.Based on the concrete situations of the development of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy, this thesis firstly adopts approaches like sustainable development theory and analytic hierarchy process to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the sustainable development degree of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy. And then comprehensively adopting methods of evolution theory of the industrial structure, industrial cluster theory, theory of blue economic zone and model analysis, the thesis analyzes the optimum methods of the sustainable development of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy in terms of the choice of the leading industries, the optimization of the industrial layout, and the optimization of the regional layout, with the purpose of providing a feasible development path and theoretical guide for the sustainable development of the Shandong Peninsula marine economy.Taking the achievements of the research on the sustainable development both at home and abroad for reference and based on the concrete situations of Shandong Peninsula, the thesis at first establishes a sustainable development index evaluation system of Shandong Peninsula’s own character, then defines the index evaluation standard value according to marine economic development domestically and internationally and various marine industries development standards, and adopting analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the index, finally the thesis comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the degree of sustainable economic development. The conclusion is:the degree of sustainable economic development of Shandong Peninsula is 0.55, which means a medium degree at the moment. To be specific, the main factors that constrain Shandong Peninsula marine economy from the sustainable development are as follows:regional marine GDP per capita; the proportion of marine technology funds to regional technology funds; the proportion of marine high-tech industries to marine GDP; the proportion of marine science and technology personnel to marine related employees; labor productivity of Shandong Peninsula marine economy; the proportion of the total area of the marine nature reserves to the total area of the coastal region; the ratio of marine GDP to the comprehensive utilization of the regional industrial solid wastes; and the ratio of marine GDP to the quantity of the regional industrial wastewater directly discharged into the sea. It will take 14 more years till the year of 2021 for Shandong Peninsula marine economy to enjoy a relative high degree of sustainable economic development, which means 0.8-0.85Based on the analysis of sustainable development of Shandong Peninsula marine economy, the thesis studies the optimum methods of sustainable development of Shandong Peninsula marine economy in terms of the optimization of industrial structure, the optimization of the industrial layout, and the optimization of the regional layout. As for the optimization of the industrial structure, under the guidance of evolution theory of industrial structure and theory of leading industries, the thesis conducts a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the major marine industries of Shandong Peninsula by the means of developmental tendency analysis, total contribution analysis, growth contribution analysis, and forecasting future development, and analyses the marine strategic industries that will be well cultivated in the future by adopting Boston Matrix. It is concluded that the leading industries of Shandong Peninsula are coastal tourism, marine transportation, marine fishery, shipbuilding and ship repair, marine oil and gas industry. What will be well cultivated in the future is the marine high-tech industries. As for the optimization of the industrial layout, by comprehensively adopting industrial cluster theory, grew correlation degree analysis, coordinative development, the thesis maps out the developmental direction and key point of the future Shandong Peninsula marine economy. As for the optimization of the regional layout, under the guidance of theory of blue economic zone and the principles of dislocation development and mutual complementing with each other’s advantages, the thesis analyzes the developmental direction and layout key point of marine economy of 7 coastal cities of Shandong Peninsula,which are Qingdao, Yantai, Weihai, Binzhou, Rizhao, Dongying, Weifang, and it puts forward the layout of the Shandong Peninsula Ecological Reserve as well.更多还原