【作者】 张宏永；

【导师】 刘伟平；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 中央对“三农”问题非常重视,连续多年发布了以“三农”为主题的“中央一号文件”,目标就是要解决“三农”问题,核心思想是发展现代农业、建设社会主义新农村、增加农民收入。烟草农业是烟草行业发展的重要基础,是我国农业的重要组成部分,也要以“三农”问题为核心,做好烟草农业发展工作,切实解决好烟叶、烟区、烟农问题。2007年国家烟草专卖局做出了发展现代烟草农业的战略部署,为发展我国的现代农业做出积极探索。发展现代烟草农业,既贯彻落实了中央的精神,又反映了烟农的愿望,同时也是行业自身持续发展的需要。“规模化种植”是发展现代烟草农业的必由之路,提倡烟农适度规模种植是行业的一个指导方针,但尚不明确适度规模的范围,制定的产业政策无法做到有的放矢,在实际工作中只是单纯要求烟农提高种植规模,而没有考虑规模效率问题。从维护烟农切身利益和烟草行业可持续发展角度出发,有必要对如何进行适度规模种植问题进行深入地研究。对于农业生产效率的测评,传统的方法是采用土地生产率、劳动生产率、成本利润率等各种指标进行比较分析。许多专家学者都对农业经营规模与效率的关系进行了深入地研究,由于不同研究者的目标不同,设置的评价标准也不一样,经常得出互相矛盾的结果。这主要是由于传统指标只考虑单项投入单项产出,而实际上农业生产经营是属于多投入单产出或多产出的问题。为改进单个指标分析的片面性问题,有些学者采用多项指标进行分析,但也只能按不同指标分别比较,经常导致结论互相矛盾。主要原因是传统指标无法全面综合考虑多种投入因素,更无法评价各种投入因素是否匹配问题以及目前投入条件下最大产出问题或者固定产出条件下最小投入问题,即无法判断哪种属于规模效率最优状态。对于规模效率的影响因素问题,只能局限于定性而无法采用定量的方式进行分析。为改变传统指标评价农业规模经营效率的局限性,本研究从技术效率的角度,主要应用了在处理多项投入与多项产出的有效性评价方面具有绝对优势的数据包络分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)对烟农种植规模效率问题进行深入地研究。本研究先对烟农种植规模效率的相关问题进行文献综述,然后对收集的相关历史数据进行深入分析,应用传统指标方法描述、评价全国及福建烟叶发展历史及规模、效率变化情况,接着从烟农的微观层面入手,通过科学的方法大量调查样本烟农的种植情况,考察在现有的生产技术环境下不同种植规模烟农成本收益状况及相关信息,然后以DEA-Tobit两阶段方法为基本工具,建立了烟农种植规模效率的评测模型,探求烟草农业种植规模效率的内在变化规律及影响因素,并通过对烟农的种植规模意愿与效率最优规模的差异进行研究,揭示烟农规模种植的决策机制。最后在对主要结论进行系统总结的基础上,针对性地提出一些政策建议。本研究综合运用了经济学、运筹学、社会学等学科的研究方法,做到规范研究与实证研究、定性与定量方法相结合,并通过实证分析来说明问题,具体的研究内容包括六个方面:(1)通过大量查阅资料,介绍了烟草农业总体概况及全国、福建烟叶发展历史,对相关数据进行深入分析,应用传统指标方法评价了全国及福建烟叶规模效率变化状况,从宏观层面描述了烟叶种植规模的成本收益情况并分析其影响因素,为构建烟农种植规模效率评价模型提供依据。(2)对调查问卷进行科学地设计,对获取的样本烟农的各项调查数据进行描述统计,并分析样本烟农的成本收益情况,为进一步评价不同种植规模范围的烟农规模效率状况提供数据基础。(3)在回顾DEA方法原理基础上,对DEA方法优缺点进行分析,选择以规模报酬可变的BC 2模型为基础对烟农种植规模效率状况进行测度,构建了烟农种植规模效率模型。(4)构建了烟农种植规模效率的评价指标体系,并对样本数据进行聚组分类,然后分别在烟农、烟草公司生产目标下,从投入、产出两个导向,应用烟农种植规模效率模型测评了烟农种植规模效率,并在规模效率相对最优的基础上,采用绝对效率指标确定最优规模。(5)科学选择可能对烟农种植规模效率会产生显著影响的13个变量作为解释变量,应用Tobit模型分别分析了烟农、烟草公司生产目标下投入导向的烟农种植规模效率的影响因素,并对显著影响因素进行了剖析,揭示了这些影响因素如何从正向或反向显著地影响种植规模效率。(6)先对样本烟农的规模意愿情况进行了汇总统计,然后对样本烟农规模意愿与效率最优规模的差异性进行分析,列举了烟农选择非效率最优规模的影响因素,应用多元线性回归分析模型建立了烟农规模意愿的模拟方程,并对显著因素进行了剖析。本文通过理论和实证研究得出以下主要结论:烟农适度规模种植面积为30～35亩;超大规模种植效率低且规模报酬处于递减状态;要综合调整各投入要素来提高烟农种植规模效率;烟农和烟草公司目标下有较多的共同效率显著影响因素;烟农意愿规模与适度规模差距明显;烟农的土壤改良行为较为被动等。在得出结论基础上,提出的政策建议主要有:不同地区要定期测评最优规模作为当地适度规模标准;积极引导烟农以最优规模进行适度规模种植;要限制烟农选择超大规模种植烟叶;积极协助烟农有序进行土地流转;要系统进行烟田土壤改良;尊重烟农规模意愿,指导烟农科学种植;注重提高烟农群体的素质;重视发挥年纪较轻且烟龄较长烟农的核心示范作用;要改进烟机购置补贴政策;充分发挥规模效率研究的长效机制等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Chinese government always valued the problems of villagers, countryside and agriculture. The Central No. 1 document have been given for many years with the objective of seeking a countermeasure to the problems and the core thought to developing modern agriculture and building socialism new countryside and Increasing farmer’ income. Tobacco agriculture is an important foundation of tobacco development as the main component of our country agriculture. Promoting the development of the tobacco agriculture must be core with three agricultural problems and with solving good tobacco material, tobacco-planting area and tobacco farmer. State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau made an important plan on the development of modern tobacco agriculture in 2007, which made active attempt in the development of modern agriculture. The development of modern tobacco agriculture implemented the central spirit, reflected the hopes of tobacco farmer and can promote tobacco continuous improvement. Planting tobacco on a large scale is the only way to modernization. Now the problem is lack of the definition of the appropriate scale. Established policy cannot solve the problems targeted. The tobacco farmer were trying to increase the crop size but not thought about scale efficiency. It is necessary to research the appropriate scale planting for protecting the benefit of tobacco farmer and keeping the tobacco continuous improvement.For agricultural production efficiency evaluation, the traditional method is to use various kinds of index for example land productivity, labor productivity and cost profit margins, etc. to comparative analyze. Many experts researched on the relationship of the scale and the efficiency of agricultural management. Conflicting results often obtained due to the different researcher goal and different assessment standard. This is mainly because the traditional index considering only single input and single output, actually the agricultural production and operation belongs to more input single output or more input more output. In order to solve the problem of single index analysis, some scholars used more index analysis, but the conflicting results often obtained too. The main reasons are that the traditional indexes don’t think of comprehensive input factors, that the traditional indexes can’t solve the problems of evaluating various input factors matching, maximum output based on fixed input conditions and minimum input based on fixed output conditions, that the indexes are unable to determine which belong to scale efficiency. The problem of the influence factors of scale efficiency can only be used to the qualitative not quantitative analysis methods.The study analyzed the collective related data based on the literature review. Firstly, the development history, the changes of scale and efficiency of tobacco planting in Fujian Province were described and evaluated based on traditional indexes. Secondly, cost profit about different tobacco scale planting size and related information were researched by scientifically investigating a large sample of tobacco farmer from micro level. Thirdly, the model on tobacco scale planting efficiency evaluation was constructed by using the methods of two stages of DEA-Tobit to explore the rules and the influence factors of tobacco scale planting efficiency. Then, the decision-making mechanism of tobacco planting size was revealed through analysis on the differences between willingness of tobacco farmer planting size and the optimal planting size. Finally, some suggestions were put forward on the basis of the main conclusion.The study used economics, operations research, sociology, and other disciplines research methods based on empirical analysis to illustrate the problems with normative research and empirical research, qualitative and quantitative method combined. The main studying contents of the article included six aspects. (1) The general situation and the history of the nation and Fujian province tobacco agriculture were introduced according to a large number of materials. The application of the traditional indexes methods were used to evaluate the tobacco scale efficiency of nation and Fujian province, describe the cost profit and analyze the influence factors of leaf tobacco plantation on macro-level. They were the basis of the construction of the tobacco farming scale efficiency evaluation model. (2) The questionnaire was scientific designed to obtain samples data. The sample survey data of tobacco farmer was described statistically and analyzed to obtain cost benefit situations which were the data basis of further scale efficiency evaluation of different tobacco planting size. (3) The model of the tobacco planting scale efficiency was built based on the principle of DEA methods. The model chose variable returns to scale BC2 to measure the tobacco planting scale efficiency. (4) The evaluation index system of the tobacco planting scale efficiency was constructed, and the survey sample data was clustered. The model of the tobacco planting scale efficiency was used to evaluate the planting scale efficiency under the goals of separately the tobacco companies and farmer from two aspects of input and output. The optimal scale was determined using absolutely efficiency indexes on the basis of relative optimal. (5) Influence factors on the tobacco planting scale efficiency were analyzed under the production goals of separately the tobacco farmer and the companies by using TOBIT model that chose scientifically 13 explanatory variables that may be seriously influence on the tobacco planting scale efficiency. The significant influence factors were analyzed to reveals the factors how to give positive or negative influence the scale efficiency significantly. (6) Firstly, the willingness of the sample tobacco farmer scale planting was integrated statistically. Secondly, the differences between the willingness and the fact of planting size were analyzed. Then the influence factors of not optimum scale efficiency chosen were listed. Lastly, a multiple linear regression model was established to simulate the willingness of tobacco farmer scale planting and the significant factors were analyzed.The main conclusion: moderate scale of tobacco farmer planting area is 30 to 35 mu; Planting large scale is low efficiency and the scale return rate is decreasing; it is necessary to adjust the input factors to improve plant scale efficiency; there are more common influence factors on scale efficiency between tobacco companies and farmer; the differences are significant between willingness and fact of tobacco planting size; the soil improvement behavior of the tobacco farmer is passive.The main suggestion: different areas must regular evaluate optimal scale as a moderate scale of local standards; tobacco farmer should be actively guided to choose best moderate scale of planting; it is necessary to limit too large scale planting; tobacco farmer should be assisted actively to orderly land transfer; the soil should be improved systematically; tobacco farmer should be guided scientifically planting with respecting to willingness of farmer; pay attention to improve the quality of the tobacco farmer; nice demonstration of the tobacco farmer who are younger but have planted tobacco for so long must be expressed; to improve tobacco machinery purchase subsidy policy; to give full play to the long-term mechanism of research scale efficiency.更多还原