【作者】 储德银；

【导师】 闫伟；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财政学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 目前对于正处在后经济危机时代的中国宏观经济而言,亟待解决的问题很多。一方面,外需锐减使得扩大内需比任何时候都更加彰显迫切。经济增长长期以来对高投资的过分依赖所积累的国内过剩产能,后经济危机时代只能更多的依靠国内居民消费来消除,因此,扩大居民消费,尤其是释放农村居民消费的巨大潜力是实现经济增长方式转型和平稳较快增长的强劲后盾。另一方面,国内控制通货膨胀的压力日益剧增。此时面对总需求不足、产能过剩与物价上涨迅猛等多重问题交织的复杂性,政府究竟需要什么样的财政政策,是采用逆经济周期抑或选择顺经济周期的财政调控政策,以及新一轮积极财政政策是就此淡出抑或继续这些都是需要格外慎重的问题?我国居民消费“启而不动”有着极其复杂的原因,其中在很大程度上与居民消费领域中政府职能的“缺位”或“越位”有着密切关系。目前理论界针对财政政策扩大居民消费的作用机理和影响效应,存在凯恩斯主义与新古典主义两种不同流派的争论。依据新古典理论,政府增支或减税并不一定如凯恩斯主义预期增加居民消费,即财政政策对居民消费存在挤出抑或挤入效应之争。根据西方发达国家的经验发现,按照传统凯恩斯主义一味实施扩张性刺激政策并不总是有效,有时甚至会对居民消费产生紧缩效应,同时还可能造成不可持续的债务规模和巨额的财政赤字。然而在我国,由于长期缺乏从理论层面系统分析财政政策对居民消费的作用机制,同时就财政政策扩大居民消费的政策实际效果也未进行针对性的全面评价,从而理论界和实务界在扩大居民消费问题上,总是习惯性地认为应按照凯恩斯主义实行扩张性刺激政策,即增支或减税,或两者兼而进行。本文在次贷危机致使我国外需锐减之际,从机制原理和政策实际效果两方面研究扩大居民消费需求的财政政策更显意义非凡。首先在理论层面上,本文的研究具有一定的前瞻性和研究价值：一是可以为政府根据经济运行态势实施针对性的财政调控政策提供理论依据和决策思路；二是丰富政府宏观调控理论体系,拓宽政府理论视野；三是完善财政理论与推动财税学科发展。另外在实践层面上,本文的研究对于指导我国财政政策实践具有重要意义,不仅可以用于全面评价与重新反思中国财政政策的以往实践,而且还可以为后经济危机时代政府的未来财政决策提供实际依据,进而有效解决我国内需不足问题,确保财政政策的稳健性。本文在论文写作过程之中,以经济学为主线,将财政学与消费经济学、社会学、管理学、心理学等不同学科融合在一起进行学科交叉渗透研究。本文为了坚持实际观察和理论分析的客观性与全面性,运用了多种研究方法与手段。其中,除常用的研究方法之外,主要是用到了以下两种研究方法：一是定性分析和定量分析相结合。本文在研究政府支出、税收和收入分配对居民消费的作用机理与影响效应时,始终坚持定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究范式。首先,从理论层面解析政府支出、税收和收入分配对居民消费的作用机理；其次,通过建立相应的数理模型与运用最新的计量检验方法就其对居民消费的影响效应进行检验；最后,基于理论分析和实证检验的结果是一致抑或背离进行深入剖析以及提出针对性建议。二是注重比较分析法的应用。一方面,通过对我国居民消费变动趋势进行多维比较,从而深刻揭示我国居民消费需求不足的深层次原因。另一方面,论文在研究政府支出、税收和收入分配对居民消费的作用机理、影响效应以及政策设计时,始终立足于我国城乡二元社会的特殊国情,对城乡居民消费的比较贯穿全文,并就形成这种差异的原因进行深层次的挖掘,从而为财税体制城乡一体化和实现城乡和谐提供决策依据和政策参考。本文除第一章导论之外,全文结构由七个部分构成。第一部分是财政政策促进居民消费需求的理论分析。该部分一方面理论阐述居民消费对经济增长的重要性；另一方面,分析居民消费外部性的内涵、形式和作用机理入手,从而认为政府利用财政政策促进居民消费需求不仅有利于实现经济又好又快发展,还可以解决居民消费领域中的市场失灵问题。随后本文不仅从理论层面诠释了政府投资性支出、消费性支出、转移性支出和税收与居民消费的关系；而且还利用修正的IS-LM模型,探讨了凯恩斯主义财政政策对居民消费需求的传导机制。虽然在IS-LM模型分析中,财政政策对居民消费表现为凯恩斯效应,然而这一结论是建立在许多严格的假定条件基础之上,例如价格在财政调整过程保持不变,因而现实中一旦这些条件无法满足或部分满足,财政政策就有可能对居民消费产生非凯恩斯效应,即财政政策对居民消费存在非线性效应。本文第二部分首先从预期效应、财富效应和替代效应三个方面理论阐释了财政政策对居民消费产生非凯恩斯效应的作用机制,然后利用三种财政时期定义创造性的划分了除西藏之外30个省份在1978-2008年期间财政政策非线性效应的潜在时期,通过建立动态面板数据模型和采用GMM估计方法实际考察财政收入和支出政策对全国居民消费、城镇居民消费和农村居民消费的影响效应,发现我国财政政策在过去对居民消费产生了显著的非凯恩斯效应,这一结论将为我国财政政策的评价和实际操作提供全新的评价标准与实际依据。虽然论文的第一和二部分从理论和实证两个层面考察了财政政策的作用机制和影响效应,但并没有深入探究各种支出、不同税种和收入分配对居民消费的机理与影响。因此,本文通过第三部分对我国居民消费现状、变动趋势和原因的考察,然后在第四、第五和第六部分依次考察政府支出、税收和收入分配对居民消费的作用机理和影响效应。本文之所以将收入分配纳入全文的写作范畴,是因为一方面收入分配能对居民消费产生重要的影响,同时收入分配职能又是现代公共财政的基本职能之一,因此,政府除了运用收入或支出政策直接作用于居民消费之外,还可以通过作用于收入分配进而间接影响居民消费。最后在本文的第七个部分,针对财政政策扩大居民消费提出相关政策建议。本文的创新之处在于：一是理论分析了财政政策对居民消费非线性效应的产生机制,并在利用三种财政时期定义创造性的划分中国1978-2008年财政政策非线性效应的潜在时期基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型以及采用GMM估计方法实证考察了财政政策对全国居民消费、城镇居民消费和农村居民消费的影响效应,估计结果发现财政收入政策和支出政策在不同程度上都对居民消费存在显著的非凯恩斯效应。二是利用税收经济效应原理全面解析了所得税、商品税和财产税对居民消费的作用机理,发现不同税种对居民消费的影响机制存在较大差异,并且税收并不总是抑制居民消费的增加。例如,开征财产税或存款利息所得税,此时由于替代效应的存在反而会促进居民消费的增加。三是从总量和结构两个层面系统分析了初次收入分配对居民消费的作用机理,并通过panel data形式的协整与误差修正模型,实证考察了初次分配影响下居民消费的长期均衡与短期波动,结果发现：一是长期中工资收入的长期消费弹性和平均边际消费倾向均高于利润收入,国内需求属于工资领导型；二是工资收入和利润收入的短期消费弹性都非常小,提高劳动者报酬占比在短期刺激居民消费的效果并不明显。本文的不足之处主要有三点：一是虽然分析了财政政策对居民消费非线性效应的产生机制,但未实际考察我国财政政策非凯恩斯效应的产生究竟是因预期效应、财富效应抑或替代效应。另外,就财政政策对居民消费的影响在凯恩斯效应与非凯恩斯效应之间转换的边界条件及其转换拐点的识别都未做具体分析,因而本文对财政政策非线性效应的初步研究仅能为政府制定财政政策提供一种新的思路,缺乏较强的实际操作意义,这些也是本文后续研究的重点。二是虽然理论阐释了税收对居民消费的作用机理,但因数据缺失,无法针对性的考察所得税、商品税和财产税对居民消费的影响效应,因而未能很好地为政府制定税收政策提供有力的实际依据,从而未能为改变“税收与居民消费总是为负相关关系”的传统观点和思维定式提供支撑。三是虽然本文认为存在扩大居民消费的最优居民收入差距,并认为城乡居民的收入水平因各地经济发展程度的差异而各自存在最优的城乡居民收入差距,然后通过区分东部、中部和西部三大地区实证估计了现实收入差距对最优收入差距的偏离情况,由此而提出再分配政策的作用方向与重点。然而相对遗憾的是,本文并没有实际给出三大地区城乡居民最优收入差距的估计值,仅是从理论上认为最优收入差距是客观存在的,且随着经济发展而动态变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 For current macro-economy in China after the economic crisis, a lot of problems will be urgently solved. On the one hand, expanding domestic demand is more urgent than before because of sharp drop in foreign demand. The domestic excess capacity is accumulated as economic growth has long been over-reliance on high investment, which is resolved by residents’consumption demand in post-crisis era. Expansion of residents’consumption demand, especially the release of the enormous potential of the rural residents’consumption, is the strong backing of transformation of economic growth pattern and steady growth. On the other hand, domestic inflation pressure is sharply increasing. Facing the complexity of insufficient aggregate demand, overcapacity and the rapidly increasing price intertwining, Government needs what kind of fiscal policy. He should use inverse-cyclical or shun-cyclical fiscal policy, and whether the new active fiscal policy should exit or continue. These problem need to be extra careful.The insufficiency of residents’ consumption in our country has tremendously complex reasons, which has a close relationship with "absence" or "offside" of government functions in the field of residents’ consumption. At present, for theoretically using the fiscal policy to expand residents’ consumption, there is the argument of Keynesian and neoclassical. According to neoclassical theory, that the government increases expenditures or reduces taxation does not necessarily increase residents’ consumption like the Keynesian expectation. That is to say, there is the existence of battle about crowding-in or crowding-out effect of fiscal policy on residents’ consumption. On the basis of the experience of the western developed countries, the implement of expansionary stimulus policy according to the traditional Keynesian is not always effective, which could sometimes produce deflationary effect on residents’ consumption, and may cause unsustainable debt scale and large budget deficits. However, because of the long-term lack of theoretical analysis about the mechanism of fiscal policy on residents’ consumption and the lack of overall evaluation of the effects about fiscal policy on residents’ consumption in our country, thus the theory and practice always habitually think that we should execute expansionary policy according to the Keynesian, that is to say, we should increases expenditures or reduces taxation, or concurrently carry out.When the sub-prime crisis led the demand of foreign countries to take sharp drop, this paper has studied fiscal policy to expand residents’ consumption from the principle and the actual effect of fiscal policies which is even more significant. The study has certain forward-looking and research value at the theoretical level. First, the paper provided a theoretical basis and decision-making ideas for the government according to operation situation of the economy. Secondly, the article rich the theoretical system of government’s macro-regulation, and widen the government theoretical horizons. Thirdly, the essay is to perfect the fiscal theory and promote Fiscal discipline to develop. In addition, this paper has the important meaning to guide our fiscal policy practice. The study can not only be used in comprehensive evaluation and re-think of fiscal policy practice in China, but also provide practical basis for the future fiscal decision of government in post-crisis era. Then, the study can effectively solve the problem of our domestic demand shortage, and ensure fiscal policy robustness.During writing papers, this paper used economics as the main line, and conducted the inter-disciplinarity research by fusing public finance and consumption economics, sociology, psychology and so on in together. In order to adhere to objectivity of the actual observation and comprehensiveness of theory analysis, I have used a variety of research methods and means. Except the common research method, there are mainly the two methods to be used. The first is the combining with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. When the paper study the mechanism and effect of government spending, tax and income distribution on residents’ consumption, I always adhered to the research paradigm combining with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Firstly, the paper analyzed the mechanism of government expenditures, tax and income distribution on residents’ consumption from the theoretical level. Secondly, the article established the corresponding mathematical model and used the latest test method to measure the effects about residents’ consumption. Finally, according to whether empirical test results are consistent with or deviation from the theoretical analysis, the paper put forward countermeasures. The second is paying attention to the application of comparative analysis. On the other hand, when the paper studied the mechanism, the effects and policy design of government spending, taxation and income distribution on residents’ consumption based on the special background of the dual social of urban-rural community, the comparison of urban and rural residents’consumption is throughout the text, then the article analyzed the reason for this discrepancy, and provided the basement for making decision and policy consideration so as to fiscal and taxation systems integration and harmonious between urban and rural areas.Besides the first chapter introduction, full-text structure is consisted of seven parts. The first part is "theoretical analysis of fiscal policy to promote residents’ consumption". Firstly, on the one hand, this part theoreticaly explained the importance of residents’ consumption to economic growth. On the other hand, this part theoreticaly analyzed the the connotation, form and mechanism of the residents’consumption of externalities. Then, the paper thought that government using fiscal policy to promote residents’ consumption demand was not only beneficial to ensure sound and rapid economic development, but also could solve the problems of market failure in the field of residents’ consumption. And therefore, on the one hand, this paper theoretically interpreted the relations between government investment expenditures, government spending, transfer expenditures, taxes and residents’ consumption. On the other hand, the article used modified IS-LM model to discuss the transmission mechanism fiscal policy on residents’ consumption demand.Although in IS-LM model analysis, the effects of fiscal policy on residents’ consumption showed Keynes effect. However, this conclusion is based on many strict assumptions basis. For instance, price always remained unchanged in fiscal adjustment process. If these conditions cannot be met in reality, fiscal policy would be likely to produce no-Keynesian effect on residents’ consumption. The paper analyzed the causes of the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy from the expected effect, wealth effect and substitution effect. This article used three kind definition of fiscal period to creatively differentiate the potential period of non-linear effect of fiscal policies in 30 provinces except Tibet during 1978-2008, then established the dynamic panel data model to test the effects of China’s fiscal policy on residents’consumption by GMM estimates method. My researching has shown that fiscal policy produced significant non-Keynesian effects. The conclusion will provide a new evaluation criteria and the actual basis about the practice of fiscal policy.Although the paper’s first and second part inspected the mechanism and effects of fiscal policy on residents’consumption from theoretical and empirical aspects, but they did not further explore the mechanism and effects of various expenditure, different categories of tax, income distribution on residents’ consumption. Therefore, on the base of investigating the status, change trend and the causes of residents’consumption in the third part of the article, the paper examined the mechanism and the influence of government expenditures, tax and income distribution on residents’ consumption in the fourth, fifth and sixth part in turn. This paper writing included income distribution, because income distribution had not only important influence on residents’ consumption, but also income distribution function is one of basic function of modern public finance. Therefore, the government does not use income or spending policy to directly influence on residents’ consumption, but also can indirectly affects residents’consumption through the role of fiscal policy on income distribution. Finally, in the seventh part of the paper, the article put forward relevant policy suggestions about fiscal policy to expand residents’ consumption.The innovation of this paper lies in three aspects. First, the paper analyzed generation mechanism of the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy, then using three kind definition of fiscal period to creatively differentiate the potential period of non-linear effect of China’s fiscal policies during 1978-2008, the article established the dynamic panel data model to test the effects of fiscal policy on nationwide, urban and rural residents’consumption by GMM estimates method. My researching has shown that fiscal revenue policies and spending policy produced significant non-Keynesian effects in different degrees. Secondly, the paper used tax economic effect principle to comprehensively analyze the mechanism of income tax, property tax and commodity tax on residents’ consumption, and found that the mechanism of different tax categories had large differences, and tax did not always reduce residents’ consumption. For example, imposing the property tax or deposit interest income tax will promote the consumption of the residents to increase due to the existence of substitution effect instead. Thirdly, the paper analyzed the mechanism of the first income distribution on residents’ consumption from aggregate and structural levels, and empirically tested long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of residents’ consumption under the influence of the first income distribution through the co-integration and error correction model of panel data. My researching showed:the one is the long-term consumption elasticity of wage income and average marginal consumption propensity are higher than the profit income; the one is that short-term consumption elasticity of wage income and profit are very small, and the influence of improving the proportion of wage income on residents’consumption is not obvious in short-term.The deficiency of this paper mainly has three points. First, although the paper analyzed generating mechanism of nonlinear effect about fiscal policy on residents’ consumption, but the article did not actually review whether no-Keynes effect of fiscal policy took place because of expectation effect, wealth effect or substitution effect. In addition, transformation boundary conditions and switch inflexion point identification between Keynesian effects with no-Keynesian effects about the influence of fiscal policy on residents’ consumption had been not analyzed. Preliminary study of no-linear effect of fiscal policy in this paper only offered a new idea for the government formulating fiscal policy, and lacked stronger practical significance. These problems are also the future key research of this paper. Secondly, although the paper theoretically explained the mechanism of taxes on residents’ consumption, but because the data is missing, the article failed to targeted investigation of effects about income tax, property tax and commodity tax on residents’consumption. The study can not provide a powerful actual basis for the government to formulate tax policy, and did not change traditional view and thinking formulary about "the relationship between tax and private consumption is always negative correlation". Thirdly, although this paper thought the optimal income gap of resident’income about expanding residents’consumption existed, and that the income level of urban and rural residents changed according to the local economic development degree, and exist each optimal income gap. Then, through distinguish the eastern, central and western areas, the paper empirically tested deviation from real income disparity to the optimal income gap, and proposed redistribution policy direction and key. However, it is relatively unfortunate that this paper did not give the estimated value of optimal income gap between urban resident and rural resident in the eastern, central and western areas. The article only thought the optimal income gap objectively existed, and dynamicly changed with the economic development.更多还原