【作者】 高欣；

【导师】 武献华；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 中俄既是世界大国,又互为最大邻国。两国始终在对方的对外战略中占有举足轻重的地位,对相互的安全、稳定与发展有着至关重要的影响。随着中俄关系的不断深化发展,两国经贸合作前景广阔、潜力巨大。2011年6月,胡锦涛主席访问俄罗斯期间,和俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫共同提出了要在2015年前和2020年前使双边贸易额分别达到1000亿美元和2000亿美元的目标。但是目前中俄经贸合作仍存在着贸易规模不大、贸易结构不合理、贸易水平低下等诸多问题,要实现中俄两国的贸易目标必须要创新发展模式。中俄投资合作作为中俄经贸合作深化的表现,在扩大中俄贸易额、优化中俄进出口商品结构、规范中俄贸易秩序、促进中俄贸易稳定发展、提高中俄贸易的质量和水平方面有重要的促进作用。2009年,两国政府共同签订了《中俄投资合作规划纲要》,双方认为,“确保良好的投资环境是中俄经贸关系的重要组成部分”,“应根据两国投资政策和最惠国待遇原则,在重点领域加强双边投资合作,不断提高其水平和质量,双方鼓励和欢迎两国企业根据各自国内现行法律在中俄两国开展投资合作”。同时,为了保证2011年两国高层共同确定的贸易目标能够得到实现,双方提出了要促进贸易多元化发展,加强投资等领域的合作。可见,将中俄投资合作作为促进中俄贸易发展的重要途径已经成为两国政府的共识。但是,当前中俄相互直接投资与双边贸易相比规模不大,仍处在起步阶段,对中俄贸易的促进作用并没有得到充分发挥。中俄投资合作严重滞后于中俄经贸关系的发展,这必将会对中俄经贸合作的战略升级形成掣肘。因此,如何构建切实可行的中俄投资合作模式,促进中俄投资合作快速健康的发展,成为当前中俄两国迫切需要解决的重大问题。在此背景下,本文对中俄投资合作模式构建问题进行深入系统的研究,不仅能够改变理论发展滞后于实践的状况,在某种意义上是对区域经济合作理论的延伸和补充,而且对于深化中俄战略协作伙伴关系、加速中俄经贸合作战略升级、提高两国在东北亚的战略地位有着重要的战略意义和实践意义,同时也为地方政府决策部门制定对俄投资合作规划提供了理论依据和实践模式,因此,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。本文以中俄投资合作为研究对象,对区域投资合作的概念进行了界定,并对投资效应、投资效率与投资效益三者之间的关系进行了阐述,认为在区域投资合作中,必须以提高投资效益为宗旨,通过扩大投资规模、促进投资结构合理化、选择有效的投资方式来提高投资效率,促进区域投资合作的发展,从而获得良好的投资效应,并通过这种投资效应的传播和扩散,促进整个国民经济的快速发展。根据这个思路,本文首先运用定性分析的方法,从投资规模、投资结构、投资区域、投资方式四个方面对中俄投资合作的现状进行了分析,认为中俄投资合作具有投资与贸易之间联系紧密、毗邻地区大有可为、投资方式出现新变化、互补性趋势增强、以两国政府间的合作机制为保障等特点。基于当前中俄投资合作的现状和特点,根据投资效应、投资效率与投资效益三者之间的关系,通过检验中俄投资合作的投资效应的好坏和大小,可以考察中俄投资合作的投资效率与投资效益状况。由于中俄投资合作是中俄经贸关系的重要组成部分,中俄投资与贸易之间联系紧密,使得中俄投资合作的投资效应更多且更直接的体现在贸易效应上,因此,本文选择在贸易效应的视角下,运用协整检验和误差修正模型等量化分析方法,深入研究中俄投资合作的效率和效益状况。一方面,通过对中俄投资合作的贸易效应进行纵向分析,确定了中俄投资与贸易之间的关系为互补关系,得出结论：中俄投资合作具有长期的贸易创造效应,俄罗斯对华直接投资比中国对俄直接投资的贸易创造效应大,中俄投资与贸易一体化有增强趋势。另一方面,通过将俄罗斯、日本、韩国对华直接投资的贸易效应和中国对俄罗斯、美国、澳大利亚直接投资的贸易效应进行横向分析,得出结论：虽然中俄投资合作具有长期的贸易创造效应,但与日本、韩国、美国和澳大利亚这些国家相比还存在很大差距,中俄投资合作的贸易创造效应并没有得到充分发挥。因此,根据中俄投资合作的贸易效应分析的结果,反映了中俄投资合作的效率与效益的低下,具体表现在规模小且发展不平衡、投资结构不合理、合作模式具有局限性、投资方式落后等方面,这主要是由于中俄投资环境不稳定、缺乏高效的投资管理体制、缺乏有效的沟通协调机制、中俄跨国收购存在实施障碍、“中国威胁论”的影响等原因造成的。针对当前中俄投资合作的效率与效益低下的状况,本文深入剖析了俄罗斯对华直接投资和中国对俄直接投资的影响因素,从宏观层面提出了市场因素、基础设施因素、制度因素、贸易因素和投资集聚因素,从中观层面提出了产业结构因素和行业发展因素,从微观层面提出了劳动力因素、技术因素和企业运营因素,构建了中俄投资合作影响因素的指标体系,运用灰色关联分析法确定了影响中俄投资合作的关键因素,得出了影响俄罗斯对华直接投资的关键因素为投资集聚因素、劳动力因素和技术因素和影响中国对俄罗斯直接投资的关键因素为投资集聚因素、市场因素和基础设施因素的结论,为构建以提高投资效益为宗旨的中俄投资合作模式提供理论依据和实证支持。基于对中俄投资合作的现状、效率与效益状况和影响因素的理论分析与实证检验,以提高投资效益为宗旨,从空间布局、产业选择、方式选择三个层面创新性地构建了一个系统的、切实可行的、对实践有指导作用的中俄投资合作的“SIM”模式。该模式的总体构想是要通过合理规划中俄投资的空间布局实现投资规模扩大,通过遵循中俄投资的产业选择基准优选产业实现投资结构合理,通过选择适当的投资方式实现企业运营绩效的显著提高,最终实现投资效益的最佳化,促进中俄投资合作的优化升级。该模式的具体实施路径,首先,从中俄投资合作的空间布局来看,俄罗斯对华直接投资应以中国东北地区作为俄罗斯外资的重点引入区域,以中国沿海地区作为俄罗斯技术密集型产业投资集聚区域,以中国中西部地区作为俄罗斯劳动力密集型投资转移区域；中国对俄直接投资应以俄罗斯远东及西伯利亚地区作为中国重点投资集聚区域,以俄罗斯经济特区和技术园为依托进行分类布局。其次,从中俄投资合作的产业选择来看,俄罗斯对华直接投资应引导其重点投向资源及相关产业、农、林、牧、渔业、生产性服务业、高技术密集型产业和具有出口优势的加工产业,中国对俄直接投资应重点选择技术成熟型的中国传统产业、市场导向型产业、高新技术产业和资源开发业。最后,从中俄投资合作的投资方式来看,应根据各种投资方式的适用条件,结合影响中俄投资合作的关键因素、中俄两国的具体国情、以及投资企业的具体情况,以提高中俄投资企业的运营绩效为目的进行适当选择。为了更好地促进中俄投资合作的发展,本文提出了八点政策建议,主要包括：第一,注重“引进来”和“走出去”相结合战略；第二,大力营造良好的中俄投资环境；第三,构建高效的中俄投资管理体制；第四,完善中俄投资合作的沟通协调机制；第五,加强文化交流夯实中俄投资合作基础；第六,加快推进中俄投资合作的区域规划建设；第七,积极调整中俄投资合作的产业投资政策；第八,提高中俄两国企业跨国收购的投资效率。根据以上研究,本文可能的创新点主要有两个。第一,在贸易效应视角下对中俄投资合作的效率和效益进行了深入分析,得出结论：中俄投资合作虽然具有贸易创造效应,但该效应并没有得到充分发挥,反映了中俄投资合作的效率和效益的低下。第二,从投资空间布局、投资产业选择、投资方式选择三个层面,创新性地构建了一个系统的、切实可行的、对实践有指导作用的中俄投资合作的“SIM”模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 China and Russia are both the world powers and the biggest neighboring countries each other. The two countries always play a very important role in the other foreign strategy and have very important influence on their mutual security, stability and development. As the development of Sino-Russian relationships deepens continuously, China and Russia have a broad prospect and great potential for economic and trade cooperation. During Chairman Hu jintao’s visit to Russia in June 2011, he proposed the target of making the bilateral trade reach 1000 billion US dollars by 2015 and 2000 billion US dollars by 2020 with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. But now Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation still has such problems as small scale, unreasonable structure and low level of trade. So, the development model must be innovated to realize the target of Sino-Russian trade. As the representation of the deepening of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, Sino-Russian investment cooperation leads an important and positive role in the scale expansion, the structure optimization, the order regulation, the steady progress, the quality and level improvement of Sino-Russian trade. The two governments signed "The plan outline of Sino-Russian investment cooperation" in 2009, both sides considered that "It is the important component of Sino-Russian economic and trade relationship to create a favorable investment environments", "The two countries should strengthen the bilateral investment cooperation in the key areas and improve the investment quality and level continuously according to the investment policies in two countries and the principles of the most-favored-nation treatment. Both sides encourage and welcome the enterprises to develop the investment cooperation according to the respective existing law in the other country." At the same time, the two countries proposed to improve the development of the plural trade and strengthen the cooperation in investment and other fields for ensuring the realization of the trade target that defined by the leaders of the two states in 2011. Thus it has been common cognition of the two governments to take Sino-Russian investment cooperation as an effective model for the improvement of Sino-Russian trade development. But now the scale of Sino-Russian direct investment is not large in comparison with the bilateral trade, it is still in its initial stage and the stimulus role on Sino-Russian trade is not brought into full play. Because Sino-Russian investment cooperation lags Sino-Russian economic and trade relationship at the large extents, it must form hindrance for the strategic upgrade of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. Therefore, it is a significant and urgent problem that how to build a feasible mode for improving the rapid and healthy development of Sino-Russian investment cooperation. Under the circumstances, the thesis studies the construction of the mode of Sino-Russian investment cooperation deeply and systemically. It not only changes the situation that theoretical research lags behind practical research and act as the supplement and extension of regional economic cooperation theory to some extent, but also has important strategic and practical significance in deepening Sino-Russian strategic partnership of cooperation, celebrating the strategic upgrade of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, improving the strategic status of the two countries in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, it provides the theoretical base and practice mode for the decision-making board of the local government to work out the plan of Sino-Russian investment cooperation. Therefore, the research is of profound theoretical and practical significance.Regarding Sino-Russian investment cooperation as the research object, the thesis defines the concepts of regional investment cooperation and reveals the interaction among investment effect, investment efficiency and investment benefit. The thesis holds that the obtainment of good investment effect depends on the tenet of the investment benefit improvement and the increase of the investment efficiency by expanding investment scale, promoting investment structure rationalization and selecting the effective investment model to improve the development of regional investment cooperation, moreover, the rapid development of the whole national economy can be improved by the spread of the investment effect.According to the thread, the thesis analyzes the current situation of Sino-Russian investment cooperation from investment scale, investment structure, investment region, investment model. It shows that Sino-Russian investment cooperation has the characteristics including close association between Sino-Russian investment and trade, bright investment prospects in Sino-Russian contiguous zone, appearance of the new investment model, growing tendency of mutual supplement and government-to-government cooperative mechanism as a guarantee.Based on the current situation and characteristics of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, the investment efficiency and investment benefit can be explored by inspecting the investment effect of Sino-Russian investment cooperation according to the interaction among investment effect, investment efficiency and investment benefit. Because Sino-Russian investment cooperation is a crucial component of Sino-Russian economic and trade relationship and has close association with Sino-Russian trade, the investment effect of Sino-Russian investment cooperation is more directly showed by the trade effect, therefore, the thesis researches the efficiency and benefit of Sino-Russian investment cooperation by means of quantification analysis of cointegration and error-correction models from the perspective of the trade effect. On the one hand, by means of longitudinal analysis of the trade effect of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, the relationship between Sino-Russian investment and trade is verified as complementary relation and the conclusion shows that Sino-Russian investment cooperation induces long-term trade creation effect, the trade creation effect of Russian direct investment in China is greater than that of Chinese direct investment in Russia, the tendency of Sino-Russian investment and trade integration is increasing gradually. On the other hand, by means of horizontal analysis of the trade effect among Russia, Japanese, Korean direct investment in China and Chinese direct investment in Russia, America, Australia, the conclusion shows that though Sino-Russian investment cooperation induces long-term trade creation effect, it still exists great disparity compared to Japanese, Korean, America, Australia, the trade creation effect of Sino-Russian investment cooperation has not been given full play. Then according to the conclusions of the analysis to the trade effect of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, it shows that the efficiency and benefit of Sino-Russian investment cooperation is low, concrete manifestations are:small scale and unbalanced development, unreasonable investment structure, limitable cooperative model, laggard investment model, as a result of the unstable investment environment in China and Russia, the laggard management system of investments, the inefficient communication mechanism, the implementary obstacle to Sino-Russian cross-border acquisitions, the influence of "China Threat Theory"In view of the current situation of low efficiency and benefit of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, the thesis researches the influencing factors of Russian direct investment in China and Chinese direct investment in Russia. The factors of market, infrastructure, system, trade, investment centralization are put forward from the macrographic aspect, the factors of industrial structure and industry development are put forward from the middle aspect, the factors of labors, techniques and enterprises operation are put forward from the microcosmic aspect. Index system of the influencing factors of Sino-Russian investment cooperation is established and the key factors are determined by mean of grey correlation analysis. The conclusion shows that the key factors to influence Russian direct investment in China are investment centralization, labors, techniques; the key factors to influence Chinese direct investment in Russia are investment centralization, market and infrastructure. The research presents theoretical foundation and empirical support for the construction of the model of Sino-Russian investment cooperation that takes the investment benefits improvement as the tenet.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical examination of the situation, efficiency, benefits and influencing factors of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, a systematic, feasible, empirical significant "SIM" model of Sino-Russian investment cooperation is built up creatively with the tenet of the investment benefits improvement from the three aspects of spatial distribution, industrial selection and model selection. The comprehensive thought of the model is to bring about the enlargement of the investment scale by the rational planning of the spatial distribution, bring about the rationalization of the investment structure by optimized selection of the investment industry that following the industrial selection criteria, bring about the obvious improvements of the business operational performance by the choice of the appropriate investment model, and finally achieve the best investment benefit and promote optimization and upgrading of Sino-Russian investment cooperation. The specific implementation way of the model is as follows. Firstly, in terms of the spatial distribution of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, Russian direct investment in China should take the northeast parts of China as the key areas to get inflow of Russian capital, take the coastal areas of China as the areas of the gathering investment of Russian technology intensive industry, take the western and central parts of China as the areas of the transferable investment of Russian labor intensive industry; Chinese direct investment in Russia should take Russian far east and Siberia as the key areas of Chinese gathering investment and carry out the classification and arrangement by relying on the special economic zones and the technology parks. Secondly, in terms of the industrial selection of the Sino-Russian investment cooperation, Russian direct investment in China should be guided to choose resources and correlative industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries industry, producer service industry, high-tech intensive industry, processed industry with export advantage; Chinese direct investment in Russia should choose Chinese traditional industry, market-oriented industry, high-tech industry and resources development industry. Finally, in terms of the model selection of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, the investment model should be chosen properly to improve Sino-Russian business operational performance by considering the key influencing factors on Sino-Russian investment cooperation, Chinese and Russian specific national conditions and the circumstance of individual enterprises according to the applicable conditions of the different investment models.The thesis puts forward eight policies and suggestions to promote the development of Sino-Russian investment cooperation. The policies and suggestions include:firstly, integrating "bringing in" and "going global" strategies should be paid more attention; secondly, the favorable investment environment in China and Russia should be constructed vigorously; thirdly, the effective management system of Sino-Russian investments should be constructed; fourthly, the communication mechanism should be perfected; fifthly, the culture communication should be strengthened to consolidate the base of Sino-Russian investment cooperation; sixthly, the regional planning and construction of Sino-Russian investment cooperation should be accelerated; seventhly, the industrial investment policies of Sino-Russian investment cooperation should be adjusted actively; eighthly, the investment efficiency of Sino-Russian cross-border acquisitions should be improved.As showed by the results, the possible creative keys of the thesis comprise two parts. The first, the thesis deeply analyses the efficiency and benefit of Sino-Russian investment cooperation from the perspective of the trade effect. The conclusions show the low efficiency and benefit of Sino-Russian investment cooperation, with the result that though Sino-Russian investment cooperation induces long-term trade creation effect, the effect has not been given full play. The second, a systematic, feasible, empirical significant "SIM" model of Sino-Russian investment cooperation is built up creatively from the three aspects of spatial distribution, industrial selection and model selection.更多还原