【作者】 石宏博；

【导师】 张军涛；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在经济增长理论发展的200多年时间里,经济增长的数量问题和要素投入长期被视为经济增长的主要内容。大部分经济增长理论探讨的中心问题是如何实现经济数量上的扩张,但是很少涉及经济增长质量问题。而在要素的投入对一定时期内国民收入水平或人均国民收入水平的决定问题的研究中也主要考虑劳动和资本等具体的硬投入,而科技、制度和劳动者积极性等软投入对经济增长的作用受到的重视程度较低。然而,改革开放以来,中国经济在数量增长上取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济增长的质量问题却日益凸显,例如：结构失衡、分配不均、贫富差距扩大、资源短缺及环境污染等等。因此,本文在对经济增长质量及软投入进行清晰界定与准确度量的基础上,试图运用2000-2009年各省市的面板数据研究软投入(主要是制度、科技)对经济增长质量的影响,从软投入的视角对中国区域经济增长差异的原因提供解释。本文主要考察软投入当中的制度因素和科技因素对经济增长质量中的经济增长的结构、经济增长的稳定性、经济增长的福利变化与成果分配以及经济增长的资源利用和生态环境代价这个四个维度的影响,具体的结论如下：首先,在软投入方面,主要从政府干预、开放水平、金融业的发展水平、产权制度、政府在教育、科研和环境方面的投入等角度对各省市的2000-2009年的软投入的情况进行了比较。数据分析发现：(1)不同省市政府对经济的干预程度相差较大,民族自治区和少数民族较多身份的政府支出水平比较高,东部发达地区的政府支出水平相对较低；(2)就开放水平来看,北京、广东和上海的开放水平最高,进出口总额占GDP的比重超过了100%：从产权制度上看,在经济总量相对较高的东部省市,非国有经济的比重更高,而西部省市非国有经济的活跃程度远远低于东部；(3)从金融业发展水平上看,反映金融业发达程度的金融机构存款余额占GDP的比重指标显示,北京、上海和山西在该指标上处于领先水平。不同于其他指标的是,东部省市和中西部省市在该指标上并不存在明显差异；(4)从科教投入上看,绝大部分省市对教育、科研和环保的投入在逐年加大。其次,在经济增长质量方面,从经济结构、经济的稳定性、经济的福利分配以及资源环境代价方面来进行比较。数据结果表明：(1)反映经济结构的工业化率水平表明,中部和西部省市的工业化率呈上升趋势,东部和东北省市的工业率处于平稳状态,而从三大产业产值的比重来看,各个省市之间的差距不太大,中部省市第一产业所占的比重较高,而其他地区第一产业所占的比重较低;(2)从经济的稳定性来看,中部和西部省市的CPI波动相对较大,东部省市的GDP波动相对较大,西部省份的城镇失业率的波动幅度相对较大;(3)反映福利分配均衡程度的城乡收入差距指标表明,中部和西部省市的城乡收入差距远远高于东部和东北省市,除湖北和江西外的中西部省市城镇居民的收入水平是农村居民收入水平的3倍多,东部省市中,广东和福建的城乡收入差距相对较大；(4)反映经济增长的资源环境代价的单位GDP能耗量指标表明,东部省市单位GDP能耗量远低于中西部省市,山西、青海、内蒙古和贵州的单位GDP能耗量非常高,单位工业GDP和单位GDP电耗也有类似的地区特征。最后,对软投入与经济增长质量的关系进行了实证检验,主要分析各软投入对经济增长质量的四个维度的影响,实证结果表明：(1)软投入对经济结构的影响,在资本这个硬投入依然发挥作用的同时,政府对市场的干预程度、开放水平、教育投入和科研投入等软投入对工业率、第三产业以及非农产业和非农就业的发展有显著的促进作用;(2)软投入对经济稳定性的影响,政府对市场的干预对降低GDP和城镇失业率的波动有显著的作用,开放水平的提高会显著增加GDP的波动性,金融发展水平的提高能降低CPI波动,人均资本的提高对降低GDP的波动有显著的正面作用;(3)软投入对人民福利的影响,政府对教育的支出对扫除文盲有着显著的促进作用,人均资本占有量的提高也能减少文盲的比重、提高高中以上文化水平人口在总人口中的比重。政府对教育和科研的支出以及非国有经济的发展能显著缩小城乡收入差距;在资本这个硬投入依然发挥作用的同时,开放水平、教育投入和科研投入等软投入对人均GDP有显著的促进作用。(4)软投入对资源环境代价的影响,政府对科研和环保的支出对于降低能耗、降低污水排放有显著作用,但在降低废气和固体废弃物的排放上,软投入的影响较为有限；同时,金融发展对降低能耗也有一定的积极作用。因此,在今后一个较长时期,软投入要素对于集约使用资源,改善生态环境,对于保持经济平稳快速增长具有重要意义。政府在增加软投入的数量和提高软投入的质量以促进区域经济增长质量的提高方面还大有可为。具体可以从以下这些方面来考虑：调整和优化产业结构以实现经济增长结构的协调性；利用相关的宏观经济政策(财政政策、货币政策和投资政策)来调节总需求以保证经济增长的稳定性：通过切实保障低收入群体的基本生活、稳步提高中等收入者比重、建立和完善公共财政制度,实现教育和医疗等公共服务均等化、实行工业反哺农业、城市支持农村的方针以及加强税收调节的力度等措施减小贫富差距来增加人民的福利;推进资源、要素价格体系改革以及大力发展循环经济来实现经济增长的可持续性。同时,继续实施以所有制改革为主体的产权制度变革、深化金融体制改革以提高资本配置效率,加大对中西部地区的政策扶持。并根据各地区的经济发展水平及产业结构制定不同的R&D投入发展战略,采取积极的措施促进本地区人力资本水平的提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the 200 years history of Development of economic growth theory, the quantity of economic growth and factor inputs have been regarded as the main contents of economic growth. Most of the theories of economic growth are focus on the issue how to achieve the expansion of the economic number, but very few related to the Quality of economic growth. And Literatures on how factor inputs effct the level of national income or per capita income level of a period time is also mainly considerate hard-input such as labor and capital, while the role of technology, institutions, and the enthusiasm of workers and other soft-inputs on economic growth are of less attention. However, since the reform and opening up, China has achieved remarkable achievements in the quality of economic growth, but proplems of the Quality of economic growth has become increasingly prominent, such as:structural imbalance, uneven distribution, a widening wealth gap, resource shortages and environmental pollution, and so on. Therefore.based on the well-defined and accurate measure of the soft-inputs, this article trying to use Provinces’2000-2009 panel data to study soft-inputs’(mainly institutional, technological) impact on quality of economic growth,and from soft-inputs perspective to provide an explanation for the regional differences economic growth.This paper mainly study the impact of the soft-input of institutional factors and technology factors on the four dimension of quality of economic growth, they are structure of economic growth, stability of economic growth, welfare changes and the distribution of the fruits of economic growth, resource use and ecological cost of economic growth.specific conclusions are as follows:Firstly, in the soft-inputs. Compared the soft-inputs of various provinces and municipalities from years 2000 to 2009, mainly from prospective of government intervention, level of openness, financial sector development, property rights system, government" investment in education, research and environmental.we found:(1) Diffrences of the degree of Government intervention among different provincial and municipal are larger, the level of government spending are relatively high in autonomous regions and more Minority ethnic identitv regions, eastern region are relatively low; (2) From view of the opening level. Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai are the highest level of openness, total import and export to GDP is more than 100%:from view of the system of property rights. The proportion of non-state economy is higher in eastern provinces which are of the relative high of the total economy, while the and non-state economic activity in western provinces are far below the east:(3) From view of the level of financial development, indicator reflecting the level of development of financial sector which measure as financial institutions deposits to GDP show that. Beijing, Shanghai and Shanxi are of the leading level. Unlike other indicators, there are no significantly difference among the eastern provinces and the central and western provinces;(4) From the view of the science and education inputs, investments for education, research and environmental protection are increasing year by year in the most of the provinces.Secondly, we make comparative analysis of the Quality of economic growth of various provinces and municipalities from years 2000 to 2009 from respects of economic structure, economic stability, economic welfare and resource allocation to environmental costs. Data results show that:(1) level of industrialization rate which reflects the economic structure show that the rate of the industrialization in central and western provinces are rising, keeping steadly in the eastern and northeastern provinces, as from the proportion of the three industries output value, there are litter difference, proportion of primary industry are hiher in central provinces, while other regions the proportion of primary industry are low;(2) From the view of economic stability, the central and western provinces have relatively large fluctuations in the CPI, the GDP of the eastern provinces are of relatively large fluctuations, western provinces have relatively large fluctuations in the urban unemployment rate;(3) urban-rural income gap index which reflects the equilibrium level of welfare distribution show that urban-rural income gap in the central and western provinces is much higher than that in eastern and northeastern provinces, the urban residents’income level is more than three times to that of rural residents in central and western province in addition to Hubei and Jiangxi province, in the eastern provinces, Guangdong and Fujian urban-rural income gap is relatively large;(4) unit GDP energy consumption indicators reflect the resources and environmental costs of economic growth show that energy consumption per unit of GDP in the eastern provinces is much lower than that in the central and western provinces, per unit GDP energy consumption in Shanxi, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou’s is very high, unit industrial GDP and electricity consumption per unit GDP have similar geographical characteristics.Finally, this paper makes empirical tests for the relationship between soft investment and the quality of economic growth, mainly analysis the effect of various soft-inputs to the four dimensions of quality of economic growth, empirical results show that:(1) effect of soft-inputs to the economic structure, as the hard-inputs of capital investment is still play their role. level of government intervention in the market, the level of openness, investment in education and scientific research has a significant promoting role in the industrial rate and the development of third industry and non-farm industry and non-farm employment;(2) effect of soft-inputs to the economy stability, government intervention in the market has a significant role to reduce the volatility of GDP and the urban unemployment rate, the volatility of GDP will increase as the level of the openness increase, raising the level of financial development can reduce CPI fluctuations, the per capita capital increase has a significant positive effect to reduce the volatility of GDP;(3) Effect of soft-inputs to people’s welfare, government spending on education has a significant promoting role in removing literacy, the improvement of the per capita share can also reduce the proportion of illiteracy and increase the proposion of high school population to the total population. Government education and research spending and non-state economic development can significantly reduce the urban-rural income gap; as the capital hard-inputs continue to play their role, level of openness, investment in education and scientific research and other soft inputs have a significant promoting role to the per capita GDP.(4) Effect of soft-inputs to resourses and environment costs, government spending on scientific research and environmental protection can significantly decrease energy consumption and reduce waste water discharge, but soft investments have the relatively limited impact in reducing emissions and solid waste emissions; at the same time, financial development have some positive role to reduce energy consumption.Therefore, a longer period of time in the future, the soft-inputs are significance to the intensive use of resources, improving ecological environment, maintaining steadily and rapidly economic growth. Government has a great future in increasing the Quantity of soft-inputs and improving the Quality of economic growth to promote regional economic growth. Specifically from the following aspects to consider:adjust and optimize industrial structure in order to Coordination the structure of economic growth; use relevant macroeconomic policies (fiscal, monetary and investment policies) to adjust aggregate demand to ensure the stability of economic growth; by effectively protect the basic livelihood of low-income groups, steadily raise the proportion of middle-income, establish and improve the public finance system, achieve public services of education and health care equalization, implementate industry nurturing agriculture and cities support rural policy and strengthening tax adjustment efforts and other measures to reduce wealth gap,and increase people’s welfare; promote the price system reform of resources and elements and vigorously develop the circular economy to achieve the sustainability of economic growth. At the same time, continue to implement Property rights system reform that Ownership reform as the main part, deepening the financial system reform to improve the efficiency of capital allocation, increase policy support for the central and western regions. And draft different R & D investment strategy according to the region’s economic development level and industrial structure and take positive measures to promote regional human capital levels.更多还原