【作者】 齐涛；

【导师】 郑少锋；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 玉米作为世界上主要粮食品种之一,其播种面积仅次于小麦、水稻而居第三位,也是世界上分布较广的作物之一。目前,世界玉米的总产量已在粮食作物中居首位,贸易量仅次于小麦居第二位。玉米作为我国三大粮食作物之一,具有悠久的生产历史,并且在粮食作物生产中占据了非常重要的地位。在中国粮食作物的总产量中,所占比重由建国初期的10%左右已经上升到现在的30%左右,年产量约占世界总产量的20%以上,仅次于美国居世界第二位。随着社会进步和科技发展,玉米的用途已经超出了仅仅作为口粮消费的范围。除口粮消费外,也日益成为畜牧业和加工业的重要原料,已经呈现出“粮、经、饲”多用的特点。但是,加入WTO以后,根据“乌拉圭回合”农业协议规定,我国必须扩大国内农产品市场对外开放程度,降低关税税率,逐步取消非关税壁垒和粮食出口补贴。面对国际贸易市场的变化,在激烈的国际竞争中我国玉米如何抵御国际玉米市场的冲击,在占领国内市场的同时占据国际市场,从而保证玉米种植户的经济效益,增加农民的收入,是我们必须面对的现实问题。本文根据国际竞争力的相关理论,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,对世界和我国玉米的生产、消费、国际贸易情况等进行了系统分析,剖析了影响中国玉米国际竞争力的主要因素,探索了评价玉米国际竞争力的指标体系,并运用实证分析法和比较分析法对中国玉米国际竞争力现状进行了实证分析和国际比较分析,寻找出我国玉米国际竞争力的优势与劣势所在。通过分析研究,得出以下主要观点或结论:一是在对世界玉米消费情况和中国玉米消费情况进行全面阐述与分析的基础上,从价格因素和非价格因素两个方面对影响我国玉米国际竞争力的主要因素进行了较为系统的分析。通过分析认为,除价格因素、产品质量和产品品牌外,随着国际社会对环境保护的重视,环境因素一定程度上对玉米国际竞争力起到决定性的作用。二是运用机会成本理论,从土地机会成本、利润机会成本和技术进步机会成本三个方面对我国玉米的合理价格进行了测算,得出当玉米的价格在1.11-1.46元/公斤时,才会保证玉米的正常生产供给。因此,国家应该从粮食安全和增加农民收入的角度出发,在制定玉米指导价格时,必须充分考虑实际,确保有足够的玉米市场供给量。因为玉米的国际竞争,不仅表现在我国玉米在国际市场上的占有情况,同时也要考虑抵御国外玉米大量进入国内市场,给玉米种植户的生产带来巨大的冲击,从而影响到玉米种植户的经济效益及收入。三是运用1990-2008年的玉米生产成本数据,将生产要素分为人工成本、土地成本、物质与服务费用三类,采用环比数据,利用SPSS17.0软件对上述三类生产要素对玉米生产成本的敏感性进行了分析,得出人工成本、物质与服务费用和土地成本对玉米生产成本的敏感性系数分别为1.9588、1.3279和0.6526。认为对玉米总成本影响最显著地因素是人工成本和物质与服务费用,土地成本对中国玉米总成本的影响不太显著,主要原因是国家通过一系列惠农政策,如对种粮户的直接补贴、免收农业税等,从而降低了土地成本。本文认为提高我国玉米国际竞争力主要应从以下几个方面着手:一是稳定耕地面积,增加玉米的播种面积;二是制定科学合理的指导价格;三是加大良种选育,培育出优质高产的专用玉米新品种,提高商品率;四是加大科技普及力度,提高玉米种植户的科技水平;五是实施规模化经营,降低生产成本和流通成本;六是加快玉米期货市场发展,提高玉米供需稳定性;七是实施国际化战略,保证玉米供需平衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 Corn, as one of world’s staple food, its cultivated area ranks third in the world, only second to wheat and rice, and it is also the most popularly distributed crop in the world. At present, the world total output of corn has ranked first among all grain crop, its trade volume is only second to wheat. Corn, being the third of our country’s grain crop, boasts glorious production history and plays very important role in grain crop production. Its total output has increased from 10% to about 30% at present, and its annual output ranks second in the world, taking over 20% of the world’s total, only second to USA. With the social progress and technological advancement, corn is not only used for food consumption, it has been applied in animal husbandry and food processing, displaying its multifunction as“food, cash crop and forage”. However, after joining WTO, according to agricultural treaty set by“Uruguay Round", our country must expand domestic agricultural product market to open to the outside world, reduce tustoms duty rate, cancel the nontariff barrier and grain export subsidy gradually. The present problems that we have face are how can our country’s corn survive under fierce international competition, how can China’s corn occupy domestic and international market so as to ensure corn growers’ economical benefits and increase farmers’ income.The study, based on relevant theories on international competitiveness, employs both quantitative and quantitative methods and conducts systematical analysis on corn production, consumption and international trade in the world and in China. The paper analyses the main factors that affect corn international competitiveness, explores index system that affects corn international competitiveness, and conducts empirical and comparative analysis on china’s present corn competitiveness, aiming to discover China’s advantages and disadvantages in corn international competitiveness.The study comes to the following conclusions: first, based on the analysis of world and China’s corn consumption and price and non-price factors, the research conducts systematic study on factors affecting our country’s corn international competitiveness. It is concluded, apart from price factor, product quality and product brand, environmental factor, to a certain degree, plays a decisive role in corn competitiveness. Second, through utilization opportunity cost theory, from three aspects of land opportunity cost, profit opportunity cost and technology advancement opportunity cost, the study predicts China’s reasonable corn price with an conclusion that, only when corn price is between 1.11-1.46 yuan/kilograms, can normal production and supply be guaranteed. Therefore, the government should take food safety and increasing farmer’s income into consideration when guiding corn price so that sufficient marked supply can be ensured, for foreign corn entering China’s market would pose threat to corn growers, thus affecting their economic benefits and income. Third, based on corn production cost data in 1990-2008, production element is divided into labor cost, land cost, material and service expense. The study, adopting link relative ratio, conducts analysis on the above three production elements’ corn production cost’s sensitivity, with the help of SPSS17.0 software, and concludes, labor cost, material and service expense, and land cost to the corn production cost sensitive coefficient is 1.9588, 1.3279 and 0.6526 respectively. The study finds the most obvious factor affecting corn total cost is labour cost and material and service expenses. Land cost exerts little impact on China’s total corn cost, for, the government has implemented series of preferential policies to reduce land cost, such as direct grants and exempting agricultural tax and so on.The paper suggests effective approaches to enhances our country’s corn international competitiveness: First, to stabilize cultivated area and expand corn growing area; Second, to set up scientific and reasonable guiding price; Third, to increase improved variety and cultivate new corn variety with fine quality and high output and raise commodity rate; Forth, to speed up technical popularization and enhance corn growers’ technical level; Fifth, to implement large scale management and reduce production cost and circulation cost; Sixth, to accelerate corn futures market development and enhance the stability of corn supply and demand; Seventh, to implement internationalization strategy and guarantee balanced corn supply and demand.更多还原