【作者】 陈华强；

【导师】 何宜庆；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 在各国金融体系中,银行体系都占举足轻重的地位。在我国资本市场还不太发达的今天,我国银行体系更突显其重要性。自美国经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特(Joseph Schumpeter)开创金融与经济增长的分析以来,国内外研究成果较多。但对银行体系与经济增长关系研究方面虽然也取得了若干成果,但也存在一些不足。比如,多为研究银行体系对实体经济的作用,几乎都未涉及实体经济的发展对银行体系的影响；更鲜有研究两者互动发展关系的成果。银行体系与实体经济之间互动关系如何,作用机理是什么?特别是怎样.的银行体系结构对实体经济有最优的促进作用?实体经济的波动对银行体系脆弱性有怎样的影响?这对我国金融体系改革和银行体系建设具有重要的学术价值和应用价值。本文主要采取定量和定性相结合的方法。由于在整个银行体系中,商业银行从各方面看都占大数,因此,本文在定量分析部分用商业银行(或主要商业银行)数据代表银行体系数据。本文研究的主要内容有：第一,银行体系推动实体经济发展机理分析。本文分类推导了中央银行、政策性银行和商业银行对实体经济的不同推动机制。第二,银行体系结构与实体经济增长研究。本文通过数据直观分析了银行信贷结构、所有制结构和区域结构与实体经济增长的关系。采用SCP范式分析了我国银行体系的结构、行为和绩效三者之间的内在关系。用DEA方法测算了我国银行体系前十家银行的绩效水平,分析了我国银行体系的绩效水平与经济增长之间的关系。并以江西省为例实证分析我国区域银行体系的发展和区域实体经济的关系。结果显示：随着银行结构的优化,银行绩效得到提升,四大国有银行绩效提升更快,并推动了实体经济增长。第三,实体经济促进银行体系的变迁研究。本文归纳了世界各国银行体系和我国银行体系变迁的史实,在此基础上研究了银行体系变迁的路径依赖问题和实体经济发展在其中的作用。分析了强制性变迁和诱致性变迁,并得出应以诱致性变迁,辅以强制性变迁的结论。第四,实体经济波动与银行体系脆弱性分析。本文从定性和定量两方面分析了我国银行体系脆弱性,对1978年到2009年间银行体系脆弱性程度进行了判断,采用虚拟变量进行了标识。采用了Logit模型,就影响我国银行体系脆弱性的宏观经济变量、金融变量和外部因素变量进行了实证分析。实证分析的结果显示,通货膨胀率和储蓄率与银行脆弱性显著相关。基于以上研究成果,本文提出如下政策建议。一、发挥银行体系各类机构推动作用。借鉴各国银行体系建设经验,结合我国实际,不断完善我国银行体系建设,充分发挥银行体系内各类机构作用,推动实体经济发展。二、优化银行体系结构。进一步优化银行体系东中西部结构、城乡结构、所有制结构,降低银行集中度。控制银行数量增长和规模扩张,走内涵式发展之路。三、强化诱致性变迁。借鉴世界各国银行体系变迁之路,推动我国银行体系机构分布、业务、所有制变迁。诱致性变迁应成为我国银行体系变迁的主要路径,并辅强制性变迁。四、降低通货膨胀率和稳定储蓄率。针对我国银行体系脆弱性特点,重点监测和降低通货膨胀率和稳定储蓄率,建立存款保险制度,以此减少实体经济波动,减弱银行体系脆弱性。五、推动银行体系与实体经济互进发展。一方面加快实体经济产业升级,加大对中西部和农村支持力度,加快中小企业发展。另一方面对银行实行逆周期监管,完善银行监管体系,防止我国银行体系与实体经济出现互退、背离。更多还原

【Abstract】 Banking system plays an important role in financial systems of a country. In current China, with the capital market less developed, banking system is of great importance.Since Joseph Schumpeter who began to study on the relationship between finance and economy growth, many researches studied on this and have got some achievements. But there still exist many defects and shortages. For example, there are only a few documents about the interactive relationship between banking system and real economy. In addition, most former models mainly discuss the impacting mechanism of banking system towards economy growth and how banking system impacts the economy system. However, there is little study on the mechanism and the way of economy growth influencing banking system, especially on the interactive relationship between them. To study the impact of entity economy fluctuation on bank system fragility is of great value to financial system reform and banking system construction.Qualitative and quantitative methods are mainly adopted in the dissertation. As commercial banks play important roles in the entire banking system, author use the data from commercial banks to represent banking system for quantitative analysis.This dissertation mainly.discusses:Firstly, the mechanism of how banking system promotes real economy development in China. In this dissertation we derived the drive mechanisms of central banks, policy banks and commercial banks to the real economy.Secondly, to study on the relationship between the structure of banking system and real economy development. In the dissertation, the author analyzes the impacting way of banking system on real economy development through the study of the bank credit structure, property structure and regional structure. And it adopts SCP analyzing frame to analyze the internal relationship of the structure, behavior and performance of China’s banking system. In the dissertation, the author measures and calculates the performance level of China’s banking system by way of DEA and makes empirical research and analysis of the performance level of China’s banking system and its relationship with economic growth. The author takes Jiangxi as an example and discusses the relationship between China’s district banking system development and district real economy. The results show that with the banking structure optimization, the bank performance is improved, especially the. four major state-owned banks, which promoted the growth of real economy.Thirdly, to study how real economy development impels banking system. The author summarizes the historical changes of world banking system and banking system in China, studies the route dependence problem of banking system transitions and the role of real economy development in these transitions, then get the result that mandatory transition should be supplemented by induced transition.Fourthly, to study on the relationship between the fragility of banking system and the fluctuation of real economy. The author analyses the fragility of China’s banking·system qualitatively and quantitatively. From China’s reform and opening, judges the extent of fragility of banking system ranging from 1978 to 2008 and marks with dummy variables. Logit model is applied to positive analysis of the macroeconomic variables, financial variable and exterior factor variables that influence the fragility of China’s banking system. The results show that inflation rate, savings rate are significantly positively correlated with banking fragility.On the foundation of above study, we put forward the following policy suggestions:Firstly, develop the institutions in banking system. By referring the bank system construction experiences from other countries, combined with our country, we can perfect the banking system in China and accelerate the development of the entity economy.Secondly, optimize the structure of the banking system. To further optimize the structure of bank system of East and West, urban and rural structure and ownership structure, reduce the concentration of banks. Control the number of banks and expansion and develop the banking system connotatively.Thirdly, strengthen the induced institutional transitions. Promote China’s banking system, institution distribution business, ownership change. Induced institutional change should become the main way of China’s banking system combined with mandatory transition.Fourthly, reduce the inflation rate and the stability of the savings rate. Establish deposit insurance system to reduce the fluctuation of entity economy, and to lower the fragility of banking system.Fifthly, promote the banking system and the entity economy. On the one hand, it can accelerate the upgrade of entity economy and development of mid-west and rural areas in China and accelerate the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. On the other hand, it can promote the periodical supervision of banks and try to avoid banking system’s restriction on real economy development. Actively match the government’s industry policy and the need of transformation of real economy and ensure the coordinate development of banking system and real economy.更多还原