【作者】 吴振华；

【导师】 戴思锐；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农村区域发展， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 稻谷是我国第一大粮食作物,在粮食生产和消费中处于主导地位,稻谷产业的发展对我国粮食安全,甚至是世界粮食安全都具有举足轻重的作用。然而,稻谷生产的阶段性波动、大量稻农放弃种植稻谷、稻谷生产者老龄化等一系列问题,一直困扰我国稻谷产业的发展。这些问题的出现及逐渐恶化,反映了稻谷生产收益的低下和稻农生产积极性的下降。而导致稻谷生产收益低下的最主要原因是稻谷收购价格的不合理,从而使稻农生产收益得不到保障。稻谷收购价格处于什么水平才是合理的,才能够既保障稻农的收益,也能够使稻谷经销商获得满意的收益?这一问题的研究对于稻谷产业协调发展,保障我国粮食安全具有重大意义。一、主要研究内容为完成拟定的研究目标,本文的研究内容集中在以下七个方面：1.我国稻谷的供给与需求分析及趋势判断。在稻谷生产上分析了稻谷生产的地域分布、稻谷的单产与地区差异、稻谷总产与结构变化趋势,在稻谷进口上分析了我国稻谷进口总量与品种结构、进口来源与数量分布、进口数量与结构变化趋势,在稻谷国内需求上分析了稻谷的用途结构、需求品种结构、稻谷需求数量与结构变化趋势,在稻谷的库存上分析了我国稻谷库存主体分布、库存的品种结构、库存的数量与结构变化趋势,并对我国稻谷供求关系的现状及未来发展趋势作出了判断。2.我国稻谷价格分类体系分析及稻谷比价与差价关系研究。分析了稻谷政策价与市场价、收购价格与批发价及零售价、现货价与期货价、国内市场价与国际市场价的特征及相互关系,对稻谷与生产资料、与其他粮食作物、与经济作物、与大米的比价关系进行了研究,对稻谷购销差价、批零差价、地区差价、季节差价、品种差价及质量差价进行了研究。3.分析论证稻谷收购价格对稻谷生产及消费的影响。一方面,从理论上分析了不同水平的收购价格对同一层次农户、以及同一水平的收购价格对不同层次农户稻谷种植面积的影响,稻谷收购价格对稻谷单产及稻农收入的影响,并建立回归模型量化分析了稻谷收购价格对稻谷种植面积、单产以及供给总量与结构的影响。另一方面,从理论上分析了稻谷收购价格对消费者、稻谷加工企业、家禽家畜养殖户的影响,并建立回归模型量化分析了稻谷收购价格对稻谷消费总量与结构的影响。最后从理论上分析了不同水平的收购价格对稻谷供求变动的影响。4.稻谷收购价格形成机制及波动原因分析。从理论上分析稻谷收购价格形成及波动的基础,外部环境及内部作用机制,并建立对数模型分析物质资料成本、劳动力成本、土地成本、国内供求关系以及国外稻谷价格变动等主要因素对稻谷收购价格变动的影响方向及强度。5.市场均衡条件下稻谷收购价格的确定研究。借鉴Gardner的完全竞争市场均衡移动模型及McCorriston和Weldegebriel的不完全竞争均衡移动模型,构建稻谷收购价格形成及确定的分析框架,同时借鉴博弈分析中Rubinstein讨价还价模型,构建市场均衡条件下稻谷收购定价基本模型,研究市场均衡条件下稻谷收购价格的确定。分析稻农的收购定价能力、稻谷生产成本对稻农要价的影响,稻谷经销商的收购定价能力、稻谷销售价格、稻谷经销成本对稻谷经销商出价的影响,以及稻谷生产与经销成本、稻农与稻谷经销商的收购定价能力、稻谷销售价格对稻谷收购价格的影响。市场均衡条件下稻谷收购定价基本模型为上式中,Pe、Pr分别表示单位稻谷收购价格与稻谷终端销售价格,ACs、ACd分别表示单位稻谷生产与营销成本,ψ、Ψ分别表示稻农与稻谷经销商的收购定价能力,λ表示稻农对稻谷价值形成的贡献系数,1-λ表示稻谷经销商对稻谷价值形成的贡献系数,v表示稻谷交易剩余(v=Pr－ACs－ACd)。6.市场条件变动情况下稻谷收购价格的确定研究。以稻谷收购定价基本模型为基础,分别构建稻谷生产投入品价格、稻谷终端销售价格等单因素变动情况下以及稻谷生产与经销成本、稻谷终端销售价格等多因素交互变动情况下稻谷收购定价模型,并利用该模型分析市场条件综合变动下稻谷收购价格如何确定。7.稻谷收购定价实证研究。利用湖北、湖南、重庆三种不同地形区调查数据,对构建的稻谷收购定价模型进行验证,并以稻谷生产成本为基础,测算出不同产区以完全成本及非完全成本计算的稻谷理论收购价格区间,并对我国稻谷收购价格的合理性进行判断。二、研究结论通过理论分析和实证研究,得出了以下四条结论：1.我国稻谷供求总体平衡、长期偏紧、品种结构矛盾突出。从稻谷供求关系现状看,60年代中期以来我国稻谷国内供求总量基本保持平衡,只有部分年份供求总量失衡,但全国稻谷供需地区间和品种间的不平衡长期存在并有所强化,主要表现为产区库存压力大,销区需求缺口大,籼稻供过于求,而粳稻尤其是优质粳稻供不应求；从稻谷供求关系的发展趋势看,稻谷生产受种植面积减少、水资源匮乏、工业污染等诸多因素影响,增加供给的难度越来越大,而人口的增长却造成稻米消费刚性上升,生活水平的提高又促使人们对优质稻米的需求不断增长；由于稻谷生产的各种约束条件难以消除,从而导致我国稻谷供求必然长期偏紧。2.我国稻谷收购价格严重偏低,导致稻农生产收益低下、生产积极性不高。依据调查数据可知,以稻谷完全生产成本计算的稻谷理论收购价格无论是在稻农与稻谷经销商收购定价能力相当的情况下,还是在稻农定价能力大于稻谷经销商或者稻农定价能力小于稻谷经销商的情况下,其都大于实际收购价格,即使以不完全成本计算的理论收购价格,在稻农与稻谷经销商收购定价能力相当的情况下,其仍然大于实际收购价格,在稻谷生产成本不断上涨的情况下,稻谷收购价格的低估必然导致稻农生产收益的低下,生产积极性不高。3.稻谷生产隐性成本被忽略及稻农弱势交易地位是我国稻谷收购价格偏低的主要原因。根据调查数据可知,平原、丘陵、山地稻作区稻谷生产家庭用工成本与自营地租金占稻谷生产总成本的比重分别高达46.6%、73.2%、80.8%,而稻农与稻谷经销商在进行要价和出价决策时,并没有直接将这部分隐形成本纳入稻谷生产总成本的核算范围,从而导致稻农与稻谷经销商共同确定的收购价格低于稻农应当获得的理论收购价格,同时单个稻农相对于组织化程度较高的稻谷经销商,其弱势的价格谈判地位,使稻谷收购价格的确定不利于稻农,稻谷交易剩余的分配偏向于稻谷经销商。4.劳动力投入量的差异是不同产区稻谷生产成本差异产生的主要原因。平原区稻谷生产过程机械化程度及覆盖面均高于山地及丘陵区,大型机械的使用高度替代劳动力投入,从而使该地区稻谷生产劳动力投入较少,而山地及丘陵区机械化程度较低、覆盖面较窄,需要投入大量劳动力,即使使用机械作业也仅限于小型机械,其对劳动力的替代有限,仍然需要匹配相当数量的劳动力；同时山地及丘陵区稻田细碎化严重,交通条件较差导致其在各个生产环节劳动力投入都远高于平原区,由于不同产区劳动力价格相差较小,劳动力投入量的差异直接导致生产成本的差异。根据调查数据显示,山地稻作区与丘陵稻作区生产成本的差异96.5%来源于劳动力投入量的差异；山地稻作区与平原稻作区生产成本的差异93.8%来源于劳动力投入量的差异；丘陵稻作区与平原稻作区生产成本的差异90.7%来源于劳动力投入量的差异。三、创新点1.对定价模型的改进。本文将稻谷生产及营销成本、稻农与稻谷经销商对稻谷价值形成的贡献系数及其收购定价能力纳入到稻谷收购定价模型中,并利用调查数据对其进行了验证,较之前人只考虑生产及营销成本、收购定价能力的定价模型,本文的定价模型更全面,更具体,更符合实际。2.研究发现,我国稻谷收购价格严重偏低,稻农弱势交易地位及稻谷生产隐性成本被忽略是其产生的主要原因。3.研究发现,不同产区稻谷生产成本差异来自于劳动力投入量的差异,劳动力投入越多的产区,生产成本越高,稻农稻谷生产收益越低。四、有待进一步研究的问题1.在稻谷生产成本不断上涨的情况下,如何提高稻谷收购价格,保障稻农收益是今后需要进一步深入研究的问题。2.如何提高稻谷生产机械化程度,降低稻谷生产劳动力成本是今后需要进一步深入研究的问题。3.如何提高稻谷生产的组织化程度,平衡稻农与稻谷经销商的市场地位是今后需要进一步深入研究的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rice is the first major grain crops, which play a dominant role in grain production and consumption. The development of China’s rice industry have a decisive function in food security in china and world. However, a series problems have perplexed the development of China’s rice industry including periodic fluctuations in production, a large number of rice producers have engaged in the other agricultural or non-agricultural from growing rice, the age structure of rice producers is increasingly older.These problems reflect that the benefit of rice production is low and productive enthusiasm is decreased, and the most important factor is the unreasonable purchasing price of rice, what level The purchasing price is reasonable, which can make rice producers and rice dealers satisfaction, study of this issue have great significance in coordinated development of rice industry and food security of china.The main contentsTo complete the research target of this paper, The contents include the following seven aspects:1. Research on the rice supply and demand and judgment on the Tendency. On the rice production side, this paper has analyzed the regional distribution, yield and it’s regional difference, production and it’s trend. On the rice import side, this paper has analyzed import amount and variety structure, import resources and quantitative distribution, import quantity and trend. On the rice domestic demand side, this paper has analyzed use structure, variety structure, demand quantity and trend. On the rice stock side, this paper has analyzed subject distribution, variety structure, stock quantity and trend. And the paper has judged the status and future trends of the rice supply-demand relationship.2. Research on the price classification system, the relationship of price parities and price difference. This paper has analyzed the characteristics and the relationship of policy price and market price, purchasing price, wholesale price and retail price, spot price and futures price, domestic price and international price, studyed the price parities relationship between rice and means of production, other grain crops, economic crops, milled rice and studyed the difference of purchasing price and wholesale price, wholesale price and retail price, regional price differences, seasonal price differences, species price differences and quality price differences.3. Research on the effect of purchasing price on the rice production and consumption. In theory, this paper has analyzed the effect of purchasing price on the area planted, yield, income of rice producers, rice consumers, rice processing enterprises, poultry and livestock farmers, and the rice supply and demand changes. In empirical, this paper has quantitativly analyzed the effect of purchasing price on area planted, yield, total supply, supply structure, total consumption and consumption structure by building regression model. 4. Research on the formation mechanism and fluctuation reasons of rice purchasing price. This paper has theoretically analyzed the basis of the formation and fluctuations, external environment and internal mechanism. And it has analyzed the effect direction and intensity form material goods cost, labor cost, land cost, supply-demand relationship and international rice prices playing on rice purchasing price by building logarithm model.5. Research on the rice pricing under the market equilibrium. This paper has built the analytical framework of purchasing price formation and determination based on the Perfectly Competitive Equilibrium Displacement Model built by Gardner and the Imperfect Competitive Equilibrium Displacement Model built by McCorriston and Weldegebriel and built the pricing model of rice in equilibrium based on the Bargaining Model to research on on the rice pricing under the market equilibrium. It has analyzed the effects form bargaining power of rice producers and production costs playing on the price asked by rice producers, form bargaining power of rice dealers, retail price and distribution cost playing on the price bided by rice dealers, form all factors playing on the purchasing price. Under the market equilibrium, the basic picing model represented asPe and Pr denote purchasing price and retail price of unit rice, ACs and ACd denote production cost and distribution cost of unit rice,φandψdenote denote bargaining power of rice producers and dealers,λdenotes contribution coefficient of rice producers contributed to the value of rice,1-λdenotes contribution coefficient of rice dealers contributed to the value of rice, v denotes trade surplus (v=Pr-ACs-ACd)。6. Research on the rice pricing under the changing condition. This paper has built the pricing model with price of production inputs or retail price of rice being changing and all factors being changing together based on the basic pricing model and analyzed how to price under the changing condition by using the comprehensive pricing model.7.Empirical research on the rice pricing. This paper has verified the pricing model by the actual data delivered in Hubei, Hunan and Chongqing, calculated the purchasing price ranges with complete-cost and incomplete-cost in different terrain areas and judged the rationality of purchasing price of rice.The main conclusionsWith theoretical analysis and empirical study, the conclusions include the following four aspects:1.The characteristics of supply and demand of rice in china are overall balance, Long-term tight and serious contradiction in variety structure. With the view of the present situation in rice supply and demand, since the mid-1960s, the supply and demand is balance in quantity, but the supply and demand is unbalance in structure of inter-regional and inter-varieties, it is mainly presented as a big inventory pressure in producing areas, a big demand gap in sales areas, the supply exceeds demand in hsien rice and the demand exceeds supply in japonica rice. With the view of the trend in rice supply and demand, it is more and more difficult to increase supply of rice with the acreage reduction, water scarcity, industrial pollution, but the demand of the high-quality rice is growing with the population growth and improvement of living standards. So the demand exceeds supply of rice is an inevitable trend in a long term.2. Severe low rice price in China, which leads to the low productive income and enthusiasm of rice producers. The theoretical purchasing price is higher than the actual price with the full cost of production under the conditon that the bargaining power of rice producers is bigger than rice dealers or the rice producers is bigger than rice dealers. Even if with the incomplete cost of production, the theoretical purchasing price is still higher than the actual price when the bargaining power of rice producers is similar with rice dealers. So the low rice price must cause the low productive income and enthusiasm of rice producers with the rise of the production cost.3. The main reasons of low rice price are that hidden costs of rice are ignored and the trading position of rice producers is low.The proportion of family labor costs and family land rent in total production cost is 46.6%、73.2%、80.8% respectively in plain, mountainous and hills.The hidden costs of rice are not included in the total cost when rice producers ask price and rice dealers bid price which causes the actual purchasing price is lower than the theoretical purchasing price. And the weak bargaining position of rice producers make the purchasing price conducived to rice dealers.4. The main reasons of differences in production costs are differences in the amount of labor input in different areas.The degree and coverage of mechanization of production in plain are all higher than mountainous and hills, furthermore the traffic conditions is poor and the paddy field is small in mountainous and hills, so the number of labor input is big in mountainous and hills and it is small in plain. According to the survey data, the differences in production costs between mountainous and hills are 96.5%from differences in the amount of labor input, the differences in production costs between mountainous and plain are 93.8%from differences in the amount of labor input, the differences in production costs between hills and plain are 90.7%from differences in the amount of labor input.Innovations1. Improvement on pricing model. The pricing model built in this paper includes the production and distribution costs, contribution coefficient of rice producers and dealers contributed to the value of rice and bargaining power of rice producers and dealers. It is more comprehensiver, more specificer, more realisticer than the previous model.2. Study found that hidden costs of rice are ignored and the trading position of rice producers is low are the main reasons of low rice purchasing price.3. Study found that the differences in the amount of labor input are the main reasons of differences in production costs in different areas.Further research problems1.How to improve the rice purchasing price and protect the income of rice producers is the further research problem.2.How to increase the degree of mechanization of rice production and reduce the labor costs of rice production is the further research problem.3. How to improve the degree of organization of rice production and balance the market position of rice producers and dealers is the further research problem.更多还原