【作者】 马晓勇；

【导师】 张峰；

【作者基本信息】 山西大学 ， 生态学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 黄土高原是我国种植业、林果业、畜牧业分布的重要区域,农业发展的质量不仅关系到人民生活水平的提高,而且与黄土高原的生态环境质量的整体改善密不可分。农业生态系统是人类与自然沟通的桥梁,农业的可持续发展是人类社会赖以生存的基础。黄土高原县域农业生态系统是整个黄土高原农业生态系统的基本单元和经济基础。因此,建立县域农业生态系统可持续发展模式是黄土高原农业可持续发展的必然选择,对于实现黄土高原农业可持续发展具有重要的战略意义。文水县西部为黄土高原典型山区,中偏西段为黄土丘陵区,东部及南部为洪积平原区,整体为黄土高原典型山区-洪击平原的过渡区域,各个区域对应的农业生态系统的发展模式各不相同,可以比较完整的反映出黄土高原农业生态系统的整体情况。因此,选择位于黄土高原东部区域的山西省吕梁市文水县县域农业生态系统为研究对象。选用山西省文水县1976年MSS数据,1990年、2000年、2005年、2009年陆地卫星TM影像等5期数据,利用GIS空间分析功能,分析了1976～2009年文水县土地利用变化和景观格局动态；利用2005～2010年陆地卫星TM影像的5期数据,运用马尔柯夫链和灰色系统分别预测文水县未来20a土地利用的变化趋势,并进行了对比。在此基础上,利用中巴HR高分辨率影像数据,采用ARCGIS、TWINSPAN和DCA等方法,叠加吕梁市、文水县生态功能区划,进行文水县农业生态系统功能区划。采用理论分析法、频度统计法、专家咨询法、AHP等构建文水县农业生态系统可持续发展的指标体系。对文水县农业生态系统1990～2009年农业生态系统可持续发展能力进行了评价。采用资源一发展综合指数(R-D)和环境一发展综合指数(E-D)表征资源子系统和环境子系统对整个农业生态系统的发展水平的支持程度,应用主成分分析确定各个子系统对整个生态系统的贡献大小。通过评价农业生态系统可持续发展水平,分析制约生态系统可持续发展的限制因子；在此基础上,构建文水县农业生态系统可持续发展模式,并提出相应对策。土地利用时空变化分析表明：1976～2009年建设用地、水域增加,耕地、林地、草地和未利用地整体减少,耕地主要转变为建设用地；各地类变化速度由快到慢分别是建设用地、水域、耕地、未利用地、草地和林地；耕地数量的持续减少,使农业用地压力增大。土地利用动态演变模拟和预测研究表明：在未来20a,文水县土地利用变化预测结果为耕地和草地面积大量减少,林地和建设用地面积显著增加,未利用地略有减少和水域面积稍微增加。土地利用格局的变化,尤其是耕地面积的大幅度减少将会对文水县农业生态系统产生深远影响并且带来显著压力。景观格局变化分析表明：1976-2009年文水县景观格局表现为景观多样性水平升高,景观破碎化逐渐加强,人为干扰对景观格局的影响越来越大。地形地貌、气候等自然因素的变化一定程度上改变了文水县的景观格局,但社会经济、人口等人文因素对景观格局变化的影响要远大于自然因素。耕地景观的复杂化、不规则化与破碎化加剧,降低了农业生态景观的连通性,使农业生态系统破碎化加剧,集聚性减弱,系统的自我修复、自我维持、自我发展能力降低。以土地利用为基础,采用ARCGIS、TWINSPAN和DCA相结合的方法将文水县农业生态系统划分为3个区域：中部农业发展区、西部农业发展区、东部农业发展区。DCA排序图第一轴反映了文水县农业生态系统类型随海拔的变化情况,从左到右农业生态类型所处的海拔逐渐升高,农业生态系统类型变化依次为东部农业发展区→中部农业发展区→西部农业发展区；第二轴反映了文水县农业生态系统农林牧比例的关系,从下到上林业比例逐渐减少,牧业的比例逐渐增多。综合《文水县生态功能区划》、《文水县生态经济区划》的结果,最终将文水县农业生态系统划分为：苍尔会山地农业生态类型、洪击平原农业生态类型、黄土丘陵区复合农业生态类型。农业生态系统可持续发展评价结果表明：1990-2009年人口子系统发展呈小幅波动式上升状态；经济子系统总体呈“上升—平稳—快速上升”的趋势；社会子系统发展总体呈快速上升的趋势,对文水县农业生态可持续发展能力的提高贡献最大；资源子系统的发展整体上呈平稳态势；环境子系统略有起伏,近年来逐步提高。社会子系统可持续发展对文水县农业生态系统可持续发展的贡献最大,而资源的贡献量最小。资源—发展综合指数和环境—发展综合指数的分析说明：文水县农业发展的资源状况对人口、经济与社会系统发展的压力或阻力越来越大；环境可持续发展能力逐步下降,在一定程度制约了农业经济与社会发展增长。文水县农业生态系统可持续发展水平的PCA排序和人口、经济、社会、资源、环境等5个子系统与农业生态系统可持续发展水平的回归分析结果表明：对文水县农业生态系统可持续发展贡献率的大小依次为社会子系统>经济子系统>人口子系统>环境子系统>资源子系统。耕地面积持续减少、农业科技发展水平低、农业技术人员缺乏是文水县农业可持续发展的长期限制因子；环境污染、水土流失是文水县农业可持续发展的中期限制因子；农林牧比例失调和种植业结构单一是文水县农业可持续发展的短期限制因子。从县域农业生态系统分区出发,以不同农业生态系统可持续发展水平评价为基础,以解决和突破各类区域的限制因子为出发点,制定了文水县不同类型农业生态系统可持续发展模式：(1)洪积平原农业生态系统可持续发展模式。主要包括“粮—酒—畜—肥”模式及配套技术、“粮—禽—猪—沼—肥”模式及配套技术、“林果—粮经”立体模式及配套技术、“农田林网”模式、“绿色蔬菜”模式、复合生态养殖场模式。(2)黄土丘陵区域农业生态系统可持续发展模式。主要包括“围山转”模式、生态经济沟模式、生态果园模式。(3)苍尔会山地农业生态系统可持续发展模式。主要包括山区农林复合经营模式、“观光农业”模式。(4)盐碱地-菊芋集约化种植农业生态系统可持续发展模式。最后,根据文水县农业生态系统的实际情况,提出了文水县农业生态系统可持续发展的对策,包括恪守耕地红线,保障土地资源；倡导建立循环型农业示范基地；加快推进农业结构调整；加强农业科学技术的研究和推广力度；完善政府投入机制,促进农业循环经济发展等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Loess Plateau is one of the major regions for the farming, forestry, and husbandry industry in China, whose agriculture development concerns are not only related to the living standard of its own people but an overall improvement of its ecosystem. As a bridge connecting man with nature, agroecosystem sustainable development lays the foundation for human society’s existence. Since the agroecosystems on the county level are the building blocks of the whole agroecosystem, it is necessary to adopt the sustainable development mode on the county level, which is of strategic importance to realizing the sustainable farming development of the Loess Plateau in China.With its different geographic features-the west being the typical mountainous terrain of the Loess Plateau, the central to west loess hills, the east and south alluvial plains, and the whole a typical transitional region of the Plateau from mountainous terrain to alluvial plain, the agroecosystem development pattern vary in different regions in Wenshui County, Shanxi, it could be considered that Wenshui can roughly represent the general situation concerning the Plateau’s agroecosystem. Based on the above ideas, Wenshui belonging to Lvliang, Shanxi located in east of the plateau was taken as the subject of this article.First, with GIS spatial analyzing function, the changes of the county’s land use and landscape patterns over the period of 1976 to 2009 were mapped according to its Mss data in 1976 and five sets of TM photo-topographic maps obtained from land satellite for the years of 1990,2000,2005, and 2009. Then, the trend on the land use over the coming 20a was predicted by using both Markov Chain and Gray System methods respectively on another five sets of TM photo-topographic maps from 2005 to 2010, and the results predicted by the two methods were compared. The functional agroecosystem division of Wenshui was conducted by using ARCGIS, TWINSPAN, DCA and high-resolution photographic data. By overlapping the results of the eco-functional regionalization of Lvliang City and Wenshui County, the agroecosystem functional regionalization was obtained. The indices for the appraisal system of agroecosystem sustainability for Wenshui County was acquired by theoretical analysis, frequency statistics, and specialist consultations and AHP, and the sustainability of the agro-ecosystem in Wenshui was evaluated from 1990 to 2009. The supporting degree for whole agroecosystem development was characterized by resource-development (R-D) index and environment-development (E-D), and each subsystem’s contribution to the whole system was analyzed by PCA (principal component analysis). On the basis of the above-apprising, the restricting factors to the system’s sustainable development were explored, and the sustainable developing modes and management strategies for the agroecosystem sustainablity in Wenshui were discussed, respectively.The results from the spatial-time changes in the land use indicated that the construction land and waters in Wenshui have increased. The farm land, woodland, grassland and uncultivated land have decreased, and the farm land mainly was transformed into the construction land from 1976 to 2009. The fastest conversion occurred to construction land with the water area, farm land, uncultivated land, grass land and woodland coming one after another in sequence. With continuous shrinking of farm land, the county would be hard pressed for it.The result from the dynamic simulation and prediction of the land utilization in Wenshui showed that the farm land and grass land would decrease on large scale, while the woodland and construction land would increase significantly, uncultivated land roughly on the dropping side and waters on the rise in the coming for 20a. The change in the land use pattern, especially the continuous great decline of the farm land would impose a fundamental effect on the agroecosystem and a great stress.The results from the change of the landscape pattern demonstrated that the diversity of the landscape in Wenshui from 1976 to 2009 was wider and human interference was having an increasing threat to shatter the landscape. The change of the landscape pattern was dependent upon the change of natural factors in some degree such as the topography and climate, but much more dependent on that of the human factors such as social economy and population growth. The complicating, irregulating and fragmenting of the farm landscape resulted in the decline of the agroecosystem landscape, sped up the fragmenting of agroecosystem as well as weakened the abilities as in self-restore, self-sustain, and self-development.Based on the pattern of the land use, the agroecosystem in Wenshui was divided into three regions by ARCGIS, TWINSPAN and DCA together, namely the central, western and eastern agro-development regions. The first axis from the left to right on the DCA reflected the altitude from lower to higher, and the agroecosystems were the eastern, the central and the western development regions in the same sequence. The second axis reflected the ratios among the farming, forestry and animal husbandry with lower ratio of forestry and higher ratio of animal husbandry to the top. Combining Eco-Functional Regionalization of Wenshui ", " Eco-Economic Regionalization of Wenshui " and the results of agroecosystem Regionalization of Wenshui from ARCGIS, TWINSPAN, and DCA, the agroecosystem in Wenshui was divided into:(1) Agroecosystem Type of Mountainous Region in Cang’erhui, (2)Agroecosystem Type of Diluvial Plain, and (3) Compound Agroecosystem Type of Loess Hilly Region.The appraisal of the sustainability of the agroecosystem in Wenshui showed that the population subsystem was enlarged by a small scale with fluctuations during the period of 1990 to 2009, while the economic subsystem followed a rising-stabilizing-rapid rising pattern; the society subsystem demonstrated an overall fast rising trend, which contributed to the improvement of the agroecosystem sustainability greatly, the resource subsystem showed a relatively stable trend, and the environment subsystem had some minor ups and downs but began to improve slightly in recent years. Among them, the society subsystem contributed the most to the agroecosystem while the resource subsystem the least to the agroecosystem sustainability of Wenshui.The analysis of the R-D and E-D compound indices showed that the agricultural resource status was imposing more and more pressures or obstacles on the population, economic and social development in Wenshui. The environment sustainability deteriorated gradually, which resulted in restricting its agricultural economy and social development on some degree.The ordination of the agroecosystem sustainability by PCA and regression analysis with the five subsystems and agroecosystem sustainability showed that:The subsystems’contributions to the whole county agro-ecosystem’s sustainability were sequenced in magnitude from large to small as follows:the society, economy, population, environment, and resource subsystems.In the long run, the restricting factors on the agroecosystem sustainability included the shrinking of the farm land, inferior agro-technology and lack of agro-technicians for long-term period, while the environmental pollution and soil and water erosion for mediate-term period, and the inappropriate ratio among farming and forestry and animal husbandry and mono-structuring within farming for short-term period.Based the regionalization of agroecosystem of Wenshui, the different developing stages for the different subsystems and involving with each restricting factors, the strategies for developing modes in Wenshui could be concluded as:(1) The package modes for alluvial plain including the "grain-alcohol-livestock-fertilizer" mode, the "grain-fowl-pig-methane-fertilizer" mode, the "forest fruit-economic crop" 3-D mode with their related techniques, a "farm field and forest net" pattern, a "green vegetable" pattern and a compound eco-breeding plant pattern. (2) The package modes for loess hilly region mainly including an "around the mountain to develop economy" pattern, an eco-economic valley pattern, and an eco-orchard pattern. (3) The package modes for Cang’erhui mountainous region mainly including the compound operating pattern for farming and forestry in mountains and a "sight-seeing agriculture" pattern. (4) Mode of the sustainable developing of agroecosystem of intensive cultivation for Helianthus tuberosus in alkaline land.Finally, the sustainable strategies for the agroecosystem in Wenshui were discussed, including:never surpassing the alarming line for minimum farm land to ensure the resource, initiating recycling demonstration bases, pushing forward agricultural restructuring, strengthening agroscience and technology research and application and enhancing financial investment by the government to improve the developing of the recycling economy in agriculture.更多还原